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November 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by billg315 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:20 pm

Strong squall line moving into NJ. Some gusty showers or T’Storms to usher in a cold, windy December-like Monday.
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Post by billg315 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:22 pm

52* currently. Probably won’t surpass mid-40s tomorrow.
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:16 pm

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
305 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
021000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0012.201102T1100Z-201102T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
305 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, and southern
Connecticut.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:06 pm

Yup mugs and already taking out a ton of power across many states. Its slowly coming east, wind is intermittant here but ramps up early AM through early evening tomorrow. 50mph will bring down some trees, we have many with near full leaves.

https://poweroutage.us/
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Post by brownie on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:20 am

Snowing here!  Sticking to the driveway!  I’m sure it’s just a squall, but it’s nice to see.

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Post by brownie on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:24 am

And as fast as it came, it is over.

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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:33 am

That great Brownie!! 2 episodes of snow so far this fall!

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:11 am

Flurries up here is Allendale NJ!!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:26 am

Thursday Heat wave incoming - Indian Summer it is (I have spoken with our local Lenapi Indian descendants and they have NO problem with this terminology!!! They actually feel honored by it!)
MJO phase 1 for Nov.
November 2020 Observations and Discussion Screen_Shot_2020_11_01_at_9_55_04_PM

Thursday says gidee up as the pattern responds to the MJO wave hitting phase 1 -if it were winter we'd be very cold in these 2 phases!!

November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1604599200-hxcpWoMUKFI

Friday T-time weather
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1604689200-pv4VkMLWKoM

Saturday Bbcue
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1604772000-Xsa8NhKOaSU

Sunday too
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1604858400-69y4qoMrij0

We'll be in this above normal temperature regime until Tuesday nest week once we start this on Thursday. Then colder air swing on in with a cold front as the MJO runs to phase 2 and we have a pattern responcse
Phase 2
November 2020 Observations and Discussion Screen_Shot_2020_11_01_at_9_55_04_PM

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:55 am

38 degrees, howling winds, flurries on and off.Feels like a December day.All leaves now down.

Thank you ,Mugsy, for speaking to the Lenapi's because the SJW Nazi's would be after you for saying "Indian Summer" ,LOL.
In my 25 years of Dental Practice in Ramsey, had many of the Ramapough Mountain Indians as patients.Wonderful people who gave me great advice on fishing the Ramapo River for trout.Sadly, many of the locals looked down on them but I always treated them with respect.
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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:21 pm

42° with a nasty wind. Unlike many here, I can wait 'til winter gets here. After today, I will gladly take the 60+ temps forecast for later this week.
@docstoxx,how many beads and blankets did you get for a root canal back in the day? Sorry, I am not politically correct with that question, but in days past, people would view that as it was meant to be taken-as a joke. If you can remember your history lessons from grammar school, how was the island of Manhattan purchased?

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Post by docstox12 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:29 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:42° with a nasty wind. Unlike many here, I can wait 'til winter gets here. After today, I will gladly take the 60+ temps forecast for later this week.
@docstoxx,how many beads and blankets did you get for a root canal back in the day? Sorry, I am not politically correct with that question, but in days past, people would view that as it was meant to be taken-as a joke. If you can remember your history lessons from grammar school, how was the island of Manhattan purchased?

lol! lol! lol!
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:51 pm

The wind was howling all day today, alot of very strong gusts but not too many outages very sporadic, we may have to watch ETA down the road per some LR runs of GFS, but as of right now a cat 3 is go hit mexico which is just terrible. they dont have the resources we have and all the mudslides that are go happen. Current winds are 120mph.
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:49 pm

Well I guess I forgot this was Nov 2 and there was a new thread. Quite the wind today, still blowing but not as bad. I saw gusts of 42 mph and I found out about five houses up from me, the rest of the road and surrounding back roads...no electric. Still going on since last night at 10 pm and maybe until early tomorrow.  Mr. Wind did his evil work.
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Post by dkodgis on Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:32 pm

Some stiff gusts today reaching mid to upper 20 mph range. Steady winds around 15. Florida weather coming
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:15 pm

Beautiful November (Indian Summer) stretch of weather peeps - let's take total advantage of it for it will soon leave us by then end of the week (Friday we go back to normal conditions for this time of year from the latest runs of the GSF)

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:21 pm

November 2020 Observations and Discussion Record11

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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:27 pm

Felt like May these last few days for sure after a dreary wet, cold period.

Rainy dreary day so far .40" in teh bucket - temps never got above 67* here, still way above normal but predictions for 71* fell short.

By tomorrow afternoon good deal of rain for the area
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1605268800-0BBnXR20akI

More Nov like temps after teh front moves through for Friday night
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1605355200-cPPcb6EcXKQ

Saturday brrr compared to Wednesday 30* temp swing

November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1605380400-gdathrNjT5A

Wed Snow Showers for some??
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1605679200-AcyOOIxXyYg

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:31 pm

Deep Trough as the Nina pattern swings warm and cold through
November 2020 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1605096000-1605474000-1605960000-40

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:31 am

Low of 31* this morning - feels like late fall after last weekend!!
Going to need the winter gear Tuesday adn Wed mornings - BRRR!!

These are Real Feel - wind chill values
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1605592800-xp4TZk6n83k


MOMA MIA
November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1605700800-AkdIsk8Aqmw

November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1605783600-qx9ogS0tNws

This is a 60 degree REAL Feel swing in one week for us HU - MANS!


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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:38 am

GFS and EURO showing a stormy Thanksgiving week with a Apps runner and possibly 2 coastal storms

Tuesdayish

November 2020 Observations and Discussion 1606219200-pHnPlNBd3rk

November 2020 Observations and Discussion Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_47

Cutter Flow
November 2020 Observations and Discussion Gfs_z500a_nhem_38

Deep trough and PNA spike it west = Coastal Low??
November 2020 Observations and Discussion Gfs_z500a_nhem_59

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:40 pm

INCOMING!!!

November 2020 Observations and Discussion Hrrr-conus-nystate-refc_ptype-1605474000-1605474000-1605502800-40

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:17 pm

Hearing thunder

Is it June or November?

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Post by frank 638 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:50 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing thunder

Is it June or November?
lol crazy weather that’s 2020 for us. No thunder yet just Howling winds

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:00 pm

And nothing but advisories from Upton....

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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