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November 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by frank 638 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:19 pm

I wonder why the city does not have wind advisory or high wind warning because by me it is very windy out of south 29mph with gust up to 45mph still waiting for the squall line to come through

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:34 pm

Upton finally put up a severe thunderstorm watch for the area, late to the party again!

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Post by billg315 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:42 pm

Under a Severe T’Storm Warning at my old home and new home (which I’m in-between for the next few days). Quite the squall line ripping this way on the radar.
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:10 pm

Its 60 degrees out and we are having a severe tstorm warning, incredible.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:39 pm

Yikes!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
836 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
Southeastern Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey...
Southern Westchester County in southeastern New York...
Bronx County in southeastern New York...
New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York...

* Until 900 PM EST.

* At 835 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Fort Lee, or over Ridgefield, moving northeast at
65 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
East Tremont and Riverdale around 840 PM EST.
Yonkers and New Rochelle around 845 PM EST.
White Plains and Rye around 850 PM EST.
Port Chester around 855 PM EST.
Greenwich around 900 PM EST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4082 7402 4080 7406 4083 7409 4113 7369
4099 7358 4100 7359 4097 7362 4097 7365
4089 7374 4080 7399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 234DEG 56KT 4086 7398

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
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Post by aiannone on Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:44 pm

Getting quite windy here. Line is intense
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:47 pm

Jman get ready it’s crazy by me heavy rain very windy out of the south with gust near 50 mph

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:51 pm

That was fun! Thankfully no damage here.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:58 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Jman get ready it’s crazy by me heavy rain very windy out of the south with gust near 50 mph
Im actaully out of town, of course lol Just in neghboring CT, yes I am being safe. My wife reports everything is okay, im seeing on coned looks like new rochelle rye area had some significant power outages.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:02 pm

In past 15 min outages in Coned area jumped from 3,000 to almost 7,500 most in westchester, we have power per my wife.
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:08 pm

Storm is over we have not got any lighting but the winds were howling and we have not lost power thank god

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Post by aiannone on Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:08 pm

November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 4266ac10
Bring it!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:14 pm

That was the most exciting weather event in months

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Post by aiannone on Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:16 pm

Gusting to 40 before the line
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Post by dsix85 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:00 pm

Doppler indicated tornado here in Manorville (eastern Suffolk)

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:20 pm

Unfort and fortunately it turned out to be a dud by me in Wading River.  Reports to my south coming in with wind damage. And all across the island esp west.

November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 132c8110
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 3944ec10

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:49 pm

Cold in, Cold out, warm up then cold returns them warm up with a couple spatters of rain from a few cutters with fronts drag through the region - so typical for Nov nowadays.


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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:02 am

@amugs wrote:Cold in, Cold out, warm up then cold returns them warm up with a couple spatters of rain from a few cutters  with fronts drag through the region - so typical for Nov nowadays.

Right? I miss the days of cold, and the holiday feeling by now (granted this is a particularly different type of year for a whole other reason on many levels but just saying things have changed a lot since I was a kid. I know the disrupt climate change causes but what else can explain this change? All I can remember as far back until about maybe 10-15 years ago was Nov cold, late Nov snow, snow till feb then the flowers started and the rare April snow happened. Now it's like winter is maybe 1 month long.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:07 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Cold in, Cold out, warm up then cold returns them warm up with a couple spatters of rain from a few cutters  with fronts drag through the region - so typical for Nov nowadays.

Right? I miss the days of cold, and the holiday feeling by now (granted this is a particularly different type of year for a whole other reason on many levels but just saying things have changed a lot since I was a kid.  I know the disrupt climate change causes but what else can explain this change? All I can remember as far back until about maybe 10-15 years ago was Nov cold, late Nov snow, snow till feb then the flowers started and the rare April snow happened. Now it's like winter is maybe 1 month long.

Jman you have to remember you and I and our back yards are nothing more than a mere grain of sand relative to the big picture.  It wont take much google searching to find that areas across the globe that were once tropical oceans are now barren deserts.  These deserts littered with fossils of ocean creatures are proof.  There are also currently cold climates with fossils of tropical vegetation indicating these areas were once vastly different as well.  Bottom line is the climates to various geographic locations(big and small) has shifted from warm(cold) and cold(warm), arid(moist) and moist(arid), etc. back and forth on the order of decades, centuries, millennia, and hundreds of millions of years.  

Unfortunately a political party has hijacked the climate discussion claiming one explanation as being 100% foregone truth based on "The science".  That same political faction has led one to believe that if you do not believe this one explanation then you are apparently a horrible person, who is a radical extremest and "a threat to democracy".   Problem with that is that science is ever evolving.  Science is built on "our best understanding" and is never 100%.  

The simple formula for climate change is:

man made influence + natural variability = Climate change

 For the most part the Natural Varibility portion of the equation has been a constant (solar irradiance =0.1%).  Meaning that any increase in CO2 and man made influence leads to a direct increase in how much climate changes; whereas, the changes in natural variability are so small that it still holds at about 0.1% of the total input.  With this is mind the man made global warmists can have all their math correct and think they have it figured out making it seem like man has this huge influence on the climate.  The problem is if you have half the equation incorrect, then the answer cannot be right and neither is "the science".  

The Natural variability portion of the equation has been horribly wrong.   Over the last 5-10years the realization that natural variability is nowhere near a constant has come to light in a big way.  The amount of information we are learning about this is expanding at an incredibly rate year after year.   This is no longer up for debate.    

Unfort in the USA due to a political institution taking over the distribution of information in both the news media and social media outlets, not just on climate change but on anything that does not fit the narrative, this sort of information will not be at the forefront of your living room any time soon.  Anything that does not fit the political agenda of a certain group apparently is now being censored by social outlets like Twitter and Facebook etc. and main stream news outlets alike (Facts).  But if you look for it you will see there is a tidal wave of information involving the solar as well as galactic influences on our system here on earth.  If you do a little searching for climate change on other planets in our solar system you will find a ton of information that the climates on other planets have been changing over the past century as well.  I doubt man made CO2 is affecting the climate on other planets, but I bet the sun does.  Again the minute there is any information to the CO2 contrary is brought up, it gets drowned out with cry's of you being a horrible soul less person.  But make no mistake it is out there from thousands of independent researches as well as at the top universities across the globe.        

Anyway to wrap up the answer to your question, look to the heavens my friend.  As you can see below colder periods globally have been seen after at least a a couple/few decades of low solar activity.  As you can also see we have reached what appears to be a new period of relative quiet solar activity the results of which should cause a cooling of the planet over the next 3-6 decades.  As you can see by the second image below since 1900 the solar cycles have been ramping up in intensity until its peak in the 1950's(also the dawn of the satellite era) where it has been slowly descending in activity since then.  Man made global warmists would point to the spike in CO2 and rise in global temps since the industrial revolution.  Ironically it also happens to be the longest stretch of, and modern maximum of, sunspot activity on the sun over the past 400 years.  Coincidentally us humans have caused a spike in CO2 and the temps have risen since the early 1900's (industrial revolution in the 1920's), but we have also been in the strongest period of sunspot activity in the past 400yrs. (Redundant on purpose)  

November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 400-ye10
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1900_t10

Why is the sunspot cycle so important?  First watch this brief video on what the "solar wind" is.  This is always affecting earth but to varying degrees on any given day.  Sunspots, however, can trigger solar flares/CME's, which is a massive amount of solar energy all at once.  



November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Giphy

Look at the size of a solar flare relative to the size of the earth for some perspective:

November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Faq1
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Solar+flares

The more sunspots the more solar flaring that occurs.  When an earth facing flare occurs(there are many different levels of flares) an incomprehensible amount of energy is thrown towards the planet.   Most people equate solar flares with geomagnetic storms and disruptions to our electronics, power grids etc., which is true.  Some of this energy is being deflected and absorbed by earths magnetic field, but what we are learning more and more about in the past decade is just how much of that energy is actually being taken into the earths global climate systems from the very top of the atmosphere all the way down to the surface including the vast oceans, both directly and indirectly.  The earths magnetic field is vitally important in protecting us from the harmful radiation from the solar wind, and these solar storms.  This is why astronauts need special space suits to shield from this radiation as well.  Problem is it is very well documented and researched that the magnetic field has been weakening over the 100yrs as well.  To add to it we are in the process of a magnetic pole reversal which coincides with a weakening in the earths magnetic field.  (feel free to google it).

Go here to learn more about solar flares:

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/X-class-flares.html

So not only have we been in a period of modern maximum sunspot cycles over the past 100+years, but earths shield from the suns influence has been weakening.  What that means is that more of the suns energy has been able to penetrate through earths magnetic shield and become a part of earths system both the atmospheric as well as the vast oceans systems, esp over the past 50yrs.  With a weaker shield a smaller flare might have more of an influence than if that same smaller flare happened say 200yrs ago with a more robust magnetic field.  Make sense?  

Does man have an influence on the planet?  Yes absolutely.  Should we do more to reduce greenhouse gases and pollution?  100%.  Is the debate on the cause of today's warmer global temps relative to what we insignificant humans think is normal over a time period that is nothing more than a grain of sand in time for our planet actually set in stone? NOPE...not even close.  So again you wont see much of these ideas being discussed in the main stream, because it does not fit the current narrative.  Take the red pill and unplug from the matrix so you can start to see the truth.  The truth is we still don't have all the answers.  Anyone that tells you otherwise is pushing an agenda.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:38 am

Agree 100% with you Doc. My default answer is that where I sit in my home in Monroe NY was once underwater.Then there was 100 feet of glacier ice.All at a time when no man influenced the climate.
A certain political party is using this climate thing to control all aspect of our lives and if you don't agree, you are a low grade moron,LOL.
My favorite solution for vehicles is fuel cells.The byproduct is water.I can see one day running your home on a fuel cell the size of a suitcase which the "power company" switches out every 6 months.All internet services would be wireless.You could take down all electric wires and towers saving billions in maintenance and improving the landscape .I will never live to see it but I hope it happens.
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:56 am

Doc, a good way to look at it.

This morning, a cool 18.5 degrees. Looking forward to Fri and Sat with its nice weather so I can finish up some outside work. I do dates. If by Thanksgiving, I do not have certain things done, I turn into a turkey.


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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:25 am

18.3 was my low this morning. Felt good. Snow showers observed past few days too.

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Post by amugs on Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:06 am

22* for my low and wind chill was 18* - winter feel for sure and now the High Pressure slides offshore and we get teh return flow on the backside of warmer air for the next couple to few days. 20* below normal yesterday here and this morning was a 16* below normal. Still AN for teh month with the way above normal temps to start the month

Saturday Highs
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1605985200-7M1NtnBcN6s

Lows
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1606039200-soVIuYBg5RY

Sunday highs are about Normal
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1606111200-ibaerId1vnI

Cold shot returns Mon Night into Tuesday
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1606219200-LrURRDGN6qA

November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1606240800-KHQPCmbsCCs

Turkey day warm and rainy
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1606413600-EllmWdZM2tc

Then another cold shot after this LP passes us by - same old pattern



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Post by amugs on Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:44 am

Record lows past 24 hours in NE and record Highs out in the plains
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Usa_mo10

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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:51 pm

Wet Turkey morning and early afternoonish
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype_3hr-1605873600-1606370400-1606456800-40

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