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November 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by 1190ftalt on Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:29 pm

Lightly Snowing in Stillwater Nj at 1190 feet altitude! 39 degrees, but it’s snowing !November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 37e4f510
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 37e4f510
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:48 am

Was 48 this morning And rainy with some 20+ gusts. Noticing middle of next week there is a temp drop.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:32 am

@1190ftalt wrote:Lightly Snowing in Stillwater Nj at 1190 feet altitude! 39 degrees, but it’s snowing !November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 37e4f510
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 37e4f510

Thanks for sharing! I didn’t even notice...

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:34 am

A pretty mild week coming up ahead of a developing cold front. Of course the timing of this front couldn’t be any worse. It looks like it will pass on Thanksgiving. Expect to see rain that day. Doesn’t look too heavy, but still :/

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:35 am

After Thanksgiving, our eyes turn to December and maybe we can squeeze a winter storm into the pattern (see LR thread)

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:52 pm

Potentially strong coastal storm to bring heavy rain and wind from Monday into Tuesday. Parts of the interior northeast could see snow, but all of us on this forum will see rain. Question will be how strong...some models have a dual phase of very strong pieces of northern and southern energy. Something to watch out for......

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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:01 pm

52* for my high with cloudy skies all day.

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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:03 pm

Pretty strong cutter next week
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23

Phases into this
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28

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Post by frank 638 on Thu Nov 26, 2020 8:38 am

Happy thanksgiving 🦃🍁 to you and your family I know this is going to be a different thanksgiving but let’s make the best out of it we will get Through with this stay safe and happy thanksgiving 🍁🦃

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:11 am

Happy thanksgiving weather fam! Have an amazing day

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:12 am

@amugs wrote:Pretty strong cutter next week
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23

Phases into this
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28

Yup, there it is. Going to be intense.

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Post by billg315 on Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:32 am

Some models hinting at first accumulating snow for some (like me) next Thursday night into Friday. Nothing big but would be good to see a little December snow if it holds.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 26, 2020 6:17 pm

@billg315 wrote:Some models hinting at first accumulating snow for some (like me) next Thursday night into Friday. Nothing big but would be good to see a little December snow if it holds.

There is a second stream trying to follow up after the big Monday cutter. I normally have low confidence in those follow up storms because it depends on what happens with the track and intensity of the primary low. We’ll see!!

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:32 am

Snow confidence index has been updated on the home page

Right now just 5% showing for December 6th. Models indicate another coastal storm is possible that day. The difference between that and upcoming Monday is the track of the low and colder air being around

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 28, 2020 8:38 am

Rain will start late Monday morning or early afternoon. It’s not looking as prolific as it did a couple of days ago. The secondary low is not forecasted to bring much of any rain. Looks like the primary low is taking all the energy this system has to offer.

Around 1” or less of rain expected. Winds will be howling at some points but nothing we can’t overcome.

The rest of the week looks like, will get mild again by Wednesday or so, then the December 5th-6th time frame we’re watching another storm system. This one is likely to drop more rain.

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:39 am

Woah. Upton is bullish on the potential wind coming in with Monday’s storm. Shocked

“Deep low pressure tracking west of the region will produce strong southerly winds Monday and Monday night. Depending on the ultimate track and intensity of the system, gusts of 50 to 70 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds across Long Island and eastern Connecticut.”
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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:27 pm

DEEP CUTTER here
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf_deterministic_east_z500_anom_6856400

Double LP as Frank said the one over the ocean off teh coast robs the primary and we are stuck in....wait for it.....SUBSIDENCE!!
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf_deterministic_east_instant_ptype_6834800

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:45 pm

@amugs wrote:DEEP CUTTER here
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf_deterministic_east_z500_anom_6856400

Double LP as Frank said the one over the ocean off teh coast robs the primary and we are stuck in....wait for it.....SUBSIDENCE!!
November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf_deterministic_east_instant_ptype_6834800

Damn you Ohio

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:32 am

Big M class solar flare yesterday that would have likely been an X class had it been earth facing.


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:47 am

@sroc4 wrote:Big M class solar flare yesterday that would have likely been an X class had it been earth facing.


Scott,
That would have knocked our grid out to the portion of the earth facing this flare - something we have been talking about for a few weeks here now.

I saw this last night before I went to bed and thank GOD it did not hit us!! peps are not ready for a solar flare of this magnitude. There ware two last week that were also not facing earth.

The cosmic rays that have been bombarding our planet these last 3 years are causing ozone layer/hole issues, magnetosphere is very weak. This is what protects our planet. Lastly the poleward shift is accelerating as they are going to head to the Indian Ocean and meet up in the next 50 years?? So what does this mean - it happened 12,000 years ago and caused massive natural disasters I mean biblical type - Krakatoa, Japanese earthquake of 2011, Great American Dustbowl, the Great Flood. Not being a scare monger but it has been proven through history time and time again.

From John Brandon's who interviewed hundreds of scientists who wrote a book on this:

Every few hundred thousand years, the Earth's north and south magnetic poles reverse, says Brandon. "When that happens, they can swirl around for a while before finding their new home. Or they might pick multiple spots on the planet."


Every few hundred thousand years? I think that number is far too conservative. As you know if you've read either of my books, I think the poles flip about every 11,500 years. Sometimes it's a full reversal, sometimes the pole moves south and then moves back fairly quickly. Sometimes it makes wild swings of up to 60 degrees before returning to its original position.

Great way to end Nov - moderate rain and 49*

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:43 pm

A gullywasher here. So far 2.6 inches of rain. This is higher than I expected and still coming down like it’s Hawaii.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:15 pm

overachiever imby. about 1.85" on the gauge so far with torrential rains at times. Temps topped out ~61. Very impressive.

Meanwhile Cleveland and other lake communities will rejoice in > 1' of snow.


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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:20 pm

Winds mighty impressive first report is out on nws lots of excess 60mph and thats without the main line just moving into jersey. Mostly shore areas but even just inland 45 to 55mph gusts.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:21 pm

Rediculous weather for almost December. Def no holiday mood. I read farmers almanac and there isn't one mention of snow entire season. All rain....
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:49 pm

November 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 20201115

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