DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Frank_Wx wrote:Godzilla incoming

Just to learn, what is that showing?

Wow, that was a huge run for our area. It is time to enter Godzilla Storm Mode

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, that was a huge run for our area. It is time to enter Godzilla Storm Mode

Please give me two helpings of what the Euro was dishing out just now. My goodness.

Godzilla mode must be activated!

Godzilla Mode activated!

Write up and 1st call snow map will come tonight

aiannone wrote:Godzilla mode must be activated!

Look at the 850mb closed low track and this is why the snow map shows what it does (South of LI). Not budging my stance. Off to surgery

I like it....looks like EURO came a bit SE with that run

The all-important 12z ECMWF is in. Its good word? Get your snowblowers gassed up, and don’t be too quick to count out the chutzpah of a blocking high to our north.

700mb frontogenesis will be enhanced to a point of it leading to prolific snowfall rates of 2"+/hour. That is how the 1+ foot amounts will be realized. It is a fast moving system.

Frontogenetically forced bands of heavy snow love to persist near a RN/SN line. Latent heat absorbed by melting snow in a warm nose offsets WAA while adjacent areas warm unabated >> enhanced local horizontal baroclinicity >> laterally prop. frontogenesis couples w/ rain-snow line pic.twitter.com/palS4gXarW

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) December 14, 2020

This is a nice tweet. It shows how the HP to the north has trended stronger in the last 12 hours on the EURO, hence why today's 12z run saw the track shift more S&E. If you notice on the snowfall maps, the extreme northern extent of our region, like NEPA into Binghamton, are no longer seeing the heaviest axis of snow.

Do not bet against this high pressure. pic.twitter.com/sSYhrqccvN

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) December 14, 2020

Frank_Wx wrote:700mb frontogenesis will be enhanced to a point of it leading to prolific snowfall rates of 2"+/hour. That is how the 1+ foot amounts will be realized. It is a fast moving system.

Frontogenetically forced bands of heavy snow love to persist near a RN/SN line. Latent heat absorbed by melting snow in a warm nose offsets WAA while adjacent areas warm unabated >> enhanced local horizontal baroclinicity >> laterally prop. frontogenesis couples w/ rain-snow line pic.twitter.com/palS4gXarW

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) December 14, 2020

There does seem to be a stall for a few hours on the Euro.

Frank_Wx wrote:700mb frontogenesis will be enhanced to a point of it leading to prolific snowfall rates of 2"+/hour. That is how the 1+ foot amounts will be realized. It is a fast moving system.

Frontogenetically forced bands of heavy snow love to persist near a RN/SN line. Latent heat absorbed by melting snow in a warm nose offsets WAA while adjacent areas warm unabated >> enhanced local horizontal baroclinicity >> laterally prop. frontogenesis couples w/ rain-snow line pic.twitter.com/palS4gXarW

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) December 14, 2020

Considering this is a 10:1 ratio map, I actually think snowfall rates might exceed 2 inches within this band on the EURO. This actually is starting to look more like a SWFE (southwest flow event) than a Nor'easter. No northern stream phasing, but the pressure gradients and WAA will induce incredible dynamics. Would not shock me to hear thundersnow.

Frank_Wx wrote:This is a nice tweet. It shows how the HP to the north has trended stronger in the last 12 hours on the EURO, hence why today's 12z run saw the track shift more S&E. If you notice on the snowfall maps, the extreme northern extent of our region, like NEPA into Binghamton, are no longer seeing the heaviest axis of snow.

Do not bet against this high pressure. pic.twitter.com/sSYhrqccvN

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) December 14, 2020

The cold press can often be underestimated. This 50/50 low is absolutely critical to the solution. Also, -AO helps so much with bleeding that cold air right out of Canada. Synoptically this setup looks good to me.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Man people ride models like its a carnival ride.  Still two days out.  No change to my relative thinking regarding the cold air doing its dirty work. middle of LI may be the cutoff between 6-12" and 3-6"

I been wondering where you were at

Im at work with a typical crazy ass Monday.  People waiting for me instead of bringning Fluffy to the ER, I have almost no time to really follow along.  I mean I am but I cant really join the convo.  Don't people know my passion for winter storms?  The nerve..lol

850mb ow positioning really will be key for my back yard.  Euro rolling...its still king.  I said it yesterday models at this lead time over correct N&W, thnen shift subtly back to the S&E.  I still think a 6-12" for the northern half of LI is my call.  

Hope your day gets better..by the way I love my vet(her home number is in my phone) but if we lived closer I would bring my Fluffy(Brandy)to you!...you are so thorough! who would not trust your opinion..ps..these are bittersweet borrowed days with Brandy in the prep yourself stage of heart failure. Today is a great day, she wants to play!! I hope we get enough snow down here on Wed. She becomes a puppy on the boat and in the snow.. SO COME ON Mother Nature!

What a run by the Euro. Very encouraging to see the models correct S/E this afternoon. A general 12-18 is a good bet area wide with 20+ amounts where ever the CCB sets up which is always an unknown variable until game time.

All the pieces are pretty much where we want them to be, (strong Canadian High, 50/50 Low, storm tracking up the coast), so logic tells me this is the real deal. But nothing is certain, and as long as that pesky NAM is out there, I'm going to try not to get too giddy. Giddy, yes, just not TOO giddy.

lol news 12

aiannone wrote:lol news 12

Yeah, I think news12 is out to lunch. I feel like Rich Hoffman has been downplaying it a lot.

Rich Hoffman loves to play the contrarian, then hours before the storm it becomes a huge ordeal.

Storm duration is about 16-18 hours peeps -worst is overnight 9-10PM to about 6-7 PM for NNJ and NYC Metro area - blizzard like conditions during that time frame.

I HAVE NEEVR SEEN GODZILLA MODE ON THIS BOARD ......EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!

AND FOR MY BIRTHDAY TOO BOOT ON TURSDAY FOR YA'LL!

bloc1357 wrote:

aiannone wrote:lol news 12

Yeah, I think news12 is out to lunch.  I feel like Rich Hoffman has been downplaying it a lot.

No way this verifies this literally splits yonkers in half from 4-8 to 8-16, never have i seen one side of town double the amount.

aiannone wrote:lol news 12

This is an embarrassing map.

amugs wrote:Storm duration is about 16-18 hours peeps -worst is overnight 9-10PM to about 6-7 PM for NNJ and NYC Metro area - blizzard like conditions during that time frame.

I HAVE NEEVR SEEN GODZILLA MODE ON THIS BOARD ......EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!

AND FOR MY BIRTHDAY TOO BOOT ON TURSDAY FOR YA'LL!

You're the best. Happy birthday

The 12z EPS fall in line with the OP. Major Godzilla

EPS 6 hour trend

amugs wrote:Storm duration is about 16-18 hours peeps -worst is overnight 9-10PM to about 6-7 PM for NNJ and NYC Metro area - blizzard like conditions during that time frame.

I HAVE NEEVR SEEN GODZILLA MODE ON THIS BOARD ......EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!

AND FOR MY BIRTHDAY TOO BOOT ON TURSDAY FOR YA'LL!

What? Frank has done it b4 over the years, i remember roidzilla mode too. mugs your memory is fading lol jk, but awesome, the Euro is great for all, I cannot wait to see the rgem hdrps etc as we close in, those could add more surprises. I hope I get thundersnow, as I said a while back I only saw it once as a kid. 12-18 with 20+ in some areas is incredible for mid Dec. if it happens down here, weather stats guys when was last time NYC or just N & W like my area saw that much snow in mid Dec. My memory is going too mugs it may have been recent but may have forgot. I think most def WSW will be hoisted for the rest of the area tonight at latest tomorrow morning.