DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

If the track goes East by 50 miles, would that expand the precip shield west due to a stronger low, or would it just take the precip shield East with it?

Jan ‘16, Ocean County was told to expect a ton of mixing and we were forecast at 1-3” as of the night before. The storm ticked East a smidge, we thumped, then dry slotted, then thumped some more and finished at 16-17”. I see this set up (from a forecast/surface map standpoint) possibly setting up the same way.

And HeeHaw, I agree that LBI (how ironic!!) seems to be the cut off for this storm and most storms for Tri-state weather as opposed to more of the Delmarva weather. I’m about halfway down the state coastline and at the northern 1/3 marker of Ocean County, just 20 miles N of LBI. I basically live on the border of the two climates and usually have razor thin margins on storm track!

But 48 hrs, and I feel like Ocean Cty is right there in the game. Losing by a little bit, and time is starting to tick, but here we are nonetheless. Right in the game!!

aiannone wrote:12z CMC calms the coasties nerves. Pushes the r/s line right to fire island but stops. sometimes you have to smell the rain to get the best snow!

where do I sign? That's hot. Lol. Frank I agree almost always the models converge on some kind of compromise. Is it still possible to see a Godzilla or like rgem a frsnkzilla? I know probably but is there a chance as Jim Carrey would say lol

Expect Winter Storm Watches to go up after noon via Upton, CWA-wide. As we await the Euro, I’m encouraged by what I’m seeing with the 12z suite. Our biggest snowstorm since January of 2016 (!!!) is looking likely. That makes me happy.

Hi all-- checking in for the first time in awhile. Just wanted to say the discussions/analysis i've seen here over the last few days regarding this storm have been wonderfully insightful and incredibly informative. Thank you to everyone for sharing the knowledge!

That being said, I remain cautiously optimistic that I will see a good snowstorm up here in lower Sussex County. Still time for things to change, but it looks like the models are starting to align favorably.

It's absolutely amazing that we have been gifted this storm to track, especially considering the long-term outlook for this winter was poor to say the least in terms of snowfall potential, and given that last year was such a tremendous bust.

At the end of the day, we should all be thankful that this board is in Storm Mode and we have a legitimate chance at seeing a significant storm impact us before Xmas for what feels like the first time in a long time.

Also, the CMC just said "Hold my beer!"

SoulSingMG wrote:Expect Winter Storm Watches to go up after noon via Upton, CWA-wide. As we await the Euro, I’m encouraged by what I’m seeing with the 12z suite. Our biggest snowstorm since January of 2016 (!!!) is looking likely. That makes me happy.

Where did you get that Upton announcement from? Did they mean at the 4pm update?

SENJsnowman wrote:If the track goes East by 50 miles, would that expand the precip shield west due to a stronger low, or would it just take the precip shield East with it?

Jan ‘16, Ocean County was told to expect a ton of mixing and we were forecast at 1-3” as of the night before. The storm ticked East a smidge, we thumped, then dry slotted, then thumped some more and finished at 16-17”.  I see this set up (from a forecast/surface map standpoint) possibly setting up the same way.

And HeeHaw, I agree that LBI (how ironic!!) seems to be the cut off for this storm and most storms for Tri-state weather as opposed to more of the Delmarva weather. I’m about halfway down the state coastline and at the northern 1/3 marker of Ocean County, just 20 miles N of LBI. I basically live on the border of the two climates and usually have razor thin margins on storm track!

But 48 hrs, and I feel like Ocean Cty is right there in the game. Losing by a little bit, and time is starting to tick, but here we are nonetheless. Right in the game!!  

My gut tells me the strong high and block are going to do their work. The coast's winter chances are very correlated to the -AO we are experiencing especially in December. We are experiencing -3 sigma AO right now. The -NAO is not as extreme, but the 50/50 low makes it much more strong of a block.

I definitely think you're in the game. May of course mix and all that, but end of day in the game.

aiannone wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Expect Winter Storm Watches to go up after noon via Upton, CWA-wide. As we await the Euro, I’m encouraged by what I’m seeing with the 12z suite. Our biggest snowstorm since January of 2016 (!!!) is looking likely. That makes me happy.

Where did you get that Upton announcement from? Did they mean at the 4pm update?

Oh, I’m just predicting they’ll hoist them once the 12z Euro runs given the storm will be ~ 48 hrs out (normal lead time for WSwatches). Mt Holly’s has been up for almost 24 hours, which is an unusually long lead time, but hey, lead the pack! Lol.

Ocean County, especially northern half, could very well be in one of those start as snow, mix with sleet and rain, then back to snow situations where you still end up with decent accumulation, but with a lull in the middle. Southern Ocean County is much more dicey. As Heehaw pointed out, it is really Atlantic and Cape May that are probably out of luck with this (although even there, with just the right track I could see some snow sneaking in) and southern Ocean County probably gets lumped in with them in that regard.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:GFS defintely came north with the heavier snow.

I was at 5 inches last run and it put me at 10 this run.

CP, NAM gives us 13 , GFC 10. Good runs there for our area.That's almost a foot averaged out.

It appears we have a name (for those that care): Gail.

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:GFS defintely came north with the heavier snow.

I was at 5 inches last run and it put me at 10 this run.

CP, NAM gives us 13 , GFC 10. Good runs there for our area.That's almost a foot averaged out.

CMC 17 and Euro 22.

Safe to say anything less than 10 would be disappointing at this stage.

DAYBLAZER wrote:It appears we have a name (for those that care): Gail.

I for one do not. I still find TWC naming thing ridiculous.

It's as ridiculous as if someone went and spent millions of dollars for signs to rename a bridge, they didn't personally pay for, after their dad, when that bridge already had a name that was known and respected by all.

Oh wait that actually happened, my bad.

I have been so busy all day today will work I haven’t been following up do you think the city specially by me in the Bronx we’ll see any mixing at all

Here we go, people claiming the UKMET is east. Yeah, at the surface, but H850 closed low literally rides along I-78. Aka, you still mix/rain if you’re south of there for sure, probably close to I-80. It’s really frustrating seeing all of this “high quality, expert analysis” out there in the weather world without any recognition of thermodynamics. I’ve gotta step away for a bit lol

Edit: Higher-res maps reveal that it actually jumps the low- and mid-level lows from Ohio to off the Mid-Atlantic coast in six hours with a vorticity explosion. Sorry, that’s error, that vorticity signature isn’t real IMO given the look of 500.

UKIE

Man people ride models like its a carnival ride. Still two days out. No change to my relative thinking regarding the cold air doing its dirty work. middle of LI may be the cutoff between 6-12" and 3-6"

sroc4 wrote:Man people ride models like its a carnival ride.  Still two days out.  No change to my relative thinking regarding the cold air doing its dirty work. middle of LI may be the cutoff between 6-12" and 3-6"

I been wondering where you were at

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Man people ride models like its a carnival ride.  Still two days out.  No change to my relative thinking regarding the cold air doing its dirty work. middle of LI may be the cutoff between 6-12" and 3-6"

I been wondering where you were at

Im at work with a typical crazy ass Monday. People waiting for me instead of bringning Fluffy to the ER, I have almost no time to really follow along. I mean I am but I cant really join the convo. Don't people know my passion for winter storms? The nerve..lol

850mb ow positioning really will be key for my back yard. Euro rolling...its still king. I said it yesterday models at this lead time over correct N&W, thnen shift subtly back to the S&E. I still think a 6-12" for the northern half of LI is my call.

aiannone wrote:UKIE

that's a bizzare twist. Don't buy that one.

sroc4 wrote:Man people ride models like its a carnival ride.  Still two days out.  No change to my relative thinking regarding the cold air doing its dirty work. middle of LI may be the cutoff between 6-12" and 3-6"

I admit thpugh am not taking verbatim as what the actual outcome will b 6 to 30 right now lol. Once again the msn of reason puts us in our place!

from the looks of it out to 42, euro will be like 0z or a tick SE.

EURO is rolling in as we speak

Heights along the EC are slightly lower, but man, this thing is a beast. The trough is definitely stronger than 6z run.

Godzilla incoming

Very clear we're headed toward a compromise of the EURO/GFS. Which is pretty much where the CMC has lived. We're looking at a sizable event for many, however, SNJ and parts of eastern LI will have issues accumulating.

Frank_Wx wrote:Godzilla incoming

Just to learn, what is that showing?