Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:19 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.

Current temps:

Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.

Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.

FWIW, the r/s line based off those images are exactly where the latest RPM has the r/s. Just south of LI. Budges into the south shore for an hour or so and then back to snow well offshore.

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:20 am

Upton picking up on current obs:

'Forecast is generally on track. Temperature are a bit cooler
than previously forecasted, so lowered hourly and max
temperatures today. Also, winds are higher, so increased wind
speeds through the morning. This may be due to slightly higher
pressure in southeastern Canada than the models were showing
previously."

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:20 am

NsfwWx posted this on tweeeeeeter
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 EpXy6ntXEAAT2zB?format=png&name=900x900

by **bloc1357** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:21 am

30.2/16.3

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:22 am

This is a wild difference in low track between the GFS and HRRR valid for 00z tonight. By the way, this is the most recent HRRR run (15z).

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 Gfs310

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 Ref1km10

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:23 am

aiannone wrote:Upton picking up on current obs:

'Forecast is generally on track. Temperature are a bit cooler
than previously forecasted, so lowered hourly and max
temperatures today. Also, winds are higher, so increased wind
speeds through the morning. This may be due to slightly higher
pressure in southeastern Canada than the models were showing
previously."

I agree with this. Winds are much higher than progged at this time. My anemometer is showing 20 mph gusts already. That high is stout.

by **jimv45** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:24 am

Hyde looking good for us 12-20

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:25 am

Nasty dry slot on the HRRR. This is 11pm tonight

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 Ref1km_ptype.us_ne

by **bloc1357** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:25 am

Looks like a 50-75 mile southeast difference between the 2

by **bloc1357** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:26 am

I am having a good feeling that strong HP keeps LI all or mostly snow!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Nasty dry slot on the HRRR. This is 11pm tonight

ugly

If it verified this will bring some on the forum to tears tonight, and I don't mean tears of joy.

by **billg315** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:29 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Nasty dry slot on the HRRR. This is 11pm tonight

That dry slot is deadly. My hope is that we get enough of a dump at the front end that the "damage" is done so to speak in terms of good accumulations. Would also be nice if some snow filled-in, swung in on the back end of the dry slot as the storm winds up.

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:29 am

Id be willing to bet the placement of this jet streak is why the Low elongates east and why there has been a strong areaq of convection out ahead of the main low.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 Hghgh10

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:32 am

billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Nasty dry slot on the HRRR. This is 11pm tonight

That dry slot is deadly. My hope is that we get enough of a dump at the front end that the "damage" is done so to speak in terms of good accumulations. Would also be nice if some snow filled-in, swung in on the back end of the dry slot as the storm winds up.

This is how much snow has fallen by midnight before dry slot takes over

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 Sn10_acc.us_ne

by snowlover78 Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:32 am

It started snowing here. Slowly picking up. Light snow.

by **bloc1357** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:38 am

End time should be around 9-10 tomorrow morning? or a little earlier?

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:38 am

YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 EpX1gjhXIAAovNx?format=jpg&name=900x900

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 EpX1gjhXIAAovNx?format=jpg&name=900x900

by **docstox12** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:39 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Nasty dry slot on the HRRR. This is 11pm tonight

ugly

If it verified this will bring some on the forum to tears tonight, and I don't mean tears of joy.

That's why you are never sure with these East coast snowstorms until you see 8 solid hours of heavy snow coming at you on the radar.I have seen everything in 60 years observing them.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:41 am

Frank thank you! I may not get as much snow as you guy up north, but making lemonade it is a little fun being in the battle zone right now. I want to see who wins.. Smile

its the price to pay for living on the water.. so I can't really complain. On to watching the battle! Good Luck to us all

by **bloc1357** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:41 am

amugs wrote:YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!

Damn....that band cover the length of LI!! Love it if that plays out that way!

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:42 am

I'm looking forward to this event no matter what. We can't control the final out come so though I may be unhappy or surprised with what I get I realize I can't be selfish to those that jackpot. And complaining is not go change a thing but it's about damn time we see a good storm in this area. Of course in my own self interest bring it on for all if posdible!! Lol

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:43 am

amugs wrote:YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!

THAT'S A SIGHT OF BEAUTY RIGHT THERE!

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:44 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Nasty dry slot on the HRRR. This is 11pm tonight

ugly

If it verified this will bring some on the forum to tears tonight, and I don't mean tears of joy.

That's why you are never sure with these East coast snowstorms until you see 8 solid hours of heavy snow coming at you on the radar.I have seen everything in 60 years observing them.

So true. You gotta stay humble until game time.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:47 am

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!

THAT'S A SIGHT OF BEAUTY RIGHT THERE!

LOL!!! I bring you my snow the kid who use to text with me about snow days back in teh day of 2-13-14,14-15 snow storms!!!
I hope yuo get plastered.

CAD being felt by HRRR
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 201089885_hrrr_T2m_contour_neus_fh2_trend(4).gif.9f8c22f6d80dec512ea252c3a3b5b09e

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 6 201089885_hrrr_T2m_contour_neus_fh2_trend(4).gif.9f8c22f6d80dec512ea252c3a3b5b09e

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:50 am

amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!

THAT'S A SIGHT OF BEAUTY RIGHT THERE!

LOL!!! I bring you my snow the kid who use to text with me about snow days back in teh day of 2-13-14,14-15 snow storms!!!
I hope yuo get plastered.

CAD being felt by HRRR

I remember... the good ole' days!

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:51 am

Scullybutcher wrote:Let me ask this if possible. From what we have seen on the models which model is closest to actual setup so far?

Hard to say Bobby. I dont think anyone can say for sure at this point

by **docstox12** Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:51 am

amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!

THAT'S A SIGHT OF BEAUTY RIGHT THERE!

LOL!!! I bring you my snow the kid who use to text with me about snow days back in teh day of 2-13-14,14-15 snow storms!!!
I hope yuo get plastered.

CAD being felt by HRRR

TY Mugsy, CP and I are in the deepest shade of purple. Purple Hayze,lol