12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

Scullybutcher wrote:Let me ask this if possible. From what we have seen on the models which model is closest to actual setup so far?

Hard to say Bobby. I dont think anyone can say for sure at this point

amugs wrote:

aiannone wrote:

amugs wrote:YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!

THAT'S A SIGHT OF BEAUTY RIGHT THERE!

LOL!!! I bring you my snow the kid who use to text with me about snow days back in teh day of 2-13-14,14-15 snow storms!!!
I hope yuo get plastered.

CAD being felt by HRRR

TY Mugsy, CP and I are in the deepest shade of purple. Purple Hayze,lol

[quote="amugs"]YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!
me too mugs do those budge over our areas at all or do they stick there? 0.9 per hour is def not go lay down 12 to 18 as nws says. Even if it snowed that for 12 hrs that's less than 10 inches pus there's that dry slot. Ugly. I did not expect those rates over LI. Is that all snow if so LI may be closer to the totals up north and into PA 18+. Jeeze this is nail biting. Literally lol. Biting my nail as we speak.

I hope you guys get smoked up there - you deserve it.
I'll take SECS any day of the week and 2x on a Friday LOL!!!

Observation are its snow from a Raritan bay/Sandy Hook effect snows right now - incredible!!

Okay last one then class
NsfwWx
@NsfwWx
Ive overlaid current OBS to the 12z GFS.....CAD is more prevalent as expected relative to most guidance

Coastal NJ and SE Mass are reporting ocean effect snow.

amugs wrote:Okay last one then class
NsfwWx
@NsfwWx
Ive overlaid current OBS to the 12z GFS.....CAD is more prevalent as expected relative to most guidance

what is CAD again and is this a good thing? Mugs how is it on the map earlier showing the death band moving through NYC area that we have that strip of only moderate snow and kills to both and south? Long Island was never forecasted to see that much. Happy for you guys but can't lie and say I wouldn't be disappointed. Gotta wait and see is I guess the only way to do it.

aiannone wrote:

amugs wrote:YOU MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TWO DEATH BANDS!! Stuck in the proverbial model again!
ALEX IS WEAR YOU CASH IT WITH MIKEY WHO CALLS FOR RAIN EVERY RAIN!!!!!!!!!
ME AND ZOO SUCK FINE GRAIN!!

THAT'S A SIGHT OF BEAUTY RIGHT THERE!

I love it too here in the northern burbs, at least as depicted but a shift of 15 mile in either direction and our pain becomes someone else s gain.

aiannone wrote:Coastal NJ and SE Mass are reporting ocean effect snow.

Yep flurries seen at exit 91, Bricktown/Pt Pleasant. I’m looking out the window for flakes right now like a puppy.

Accuweather just upped the snow totals. The 12-18 zone is expanded eastward to include NYC.

It is picking here. Big flakes now with wind. Extreme north western corner of Ocean county by six flags. Wow big flakes.

27* dp 1.  Its been a long time since we've had a system like this to track it's game time. Ground is frozen solid so it should be instant stikage today

jmanley32 wrote:I'm looking forward to this event no matter what. We can't control the final out come so though I may be unhappy or surprised with what I get I realize I can't be selfish to those that jackpot. And complaining is not go change a thing but it's about damn time we see a good storm in this area. Of course in my own self interest bring it on for all if posdible!! Lol

This is the right attitude

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Okay last one then class
NsfwWx
@NsfwWx
Ive overlaid current OBS to the 12z GFS.....CAD is more prevalent as expected relative to most guidance

what is CAD again and is this a good thing? Mugs how is it on the map earlier showing the death band moving through NYC area that we have that strip of only moderate snow and kills to both and south? Long Island was never forecasted to see that much. Happy for you guys but can't lie and say I wouldn't be disappointed. Gotta wait and see is I guess the only way to do it.

Cold air damming

Yes, good thing.

Ocean effect snow??

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Frank_Wx wrote:Ocean effect snow??

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Just enough low level moisture for some seeder-feeder action: pic.twitter.com/Fv25TtF0tq

— Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) December 16, 2020

Worth noting for "fringe" areas which are counting on wet bulbing to help them overcome the mid-lvl warmth advance. The HRRRv4, while improved over it's predecessor in terms of thermal profiles, is still running a touch too warm & is correcting cooler as it acknowledges the CAD. pic.twitter.com/t0uQcSp8XH

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) December 16, 2020

Grassy surfaces are covered.

aiannone wrote:Coastal NJ and SE Mass are reporting ocean effect snow.

I was wondering about that. Thanks so cool!

Can't wait for this to get going. Seems to be ramping up a bit earlier than progged.

Frank-- you still holding with your final call map or are there potential adjustments over the next few hours?

Overall, still looking like a solid event for me in NW NJ. Fingers cross that the dry slot stays south and west as shown on the HRRR.

In other news, I still have an inch on the ground from the last snow on Monday. That will help with instant accumulations!

24 degrees here in Hopatcong. It's REAL cold out there.

THAT CAD THOOOO.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Okay last one then class
NsfwWx
@NsfwWx
Ive overlaid current OBS to the 12z GFS.....CAD is more prevalent as expected relative to most guidance

what is CAD again and is this a good thing? Mugs how is it on the map earlier showing the death band moving through NYC area that we have that strip of only moderate snow and kills to both and south? Long Island was never forecasted to see that much. Happy for you guys but can't lie and say I wouldn't be disappointed. Gotta wait and see is I guess the only way to do it.

Cold air damming involves a high pressure system is trapped topographically. Often the cold air is entrenched on the east side of mountainous terrain.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Okay last one then class
NsfwWx
@NsfwWx
Ive overlaid current OBS to the 12z GFS.....CAD is more prevalent as expected relative to most guidance

what is CAD again and is this a good thing? Mugs how is it on the map earlier showing the death band moving through NYC area that we have that strip of only moderate snow and kills to both and south? Long Island was never forecasted to see that much. Happy for you guys but can't lie and say I wouldn't be disappointed. Gotta wait and see is I guess the only way to do it.

cold air damming. I think its a good thing. I think its when the air that is whipped against the hills pushes the cold air down..if i understand correctly..someone can correct me

snowlover78 wrote:Grassy surfaces are covered.

how exciting

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I'm looking forward to this event no matter what. We can't control the final out come so though I may be unhappy or surprised with what I get I realize I can't be selfish to those that jackpot. And complaining is not go change a thing but it's about damn time we see a good storm in this area. Of course in my own self interest bring it on for all if posdible!! Lol

This is the right attitude

can't promise I'll stay that way lol but thats only if I get totally screwed. Then I'll prolly just log out lol

Alright. After days of model watching and trying to figure out what I THOUGHT was going to happen, I am fully ready to see what DOES happen. I'm all-in on now casting mode: Temps, radars, pressure readings and soundings. Bring it on. I'm heading back to the Billg Fortress which is stocked with beer for the storm!!