12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@mikeypizano wrote:...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to
24 inches.
* WHERE...Southern Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming
counties.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and
Thursday morning commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
are possible late this afternoon and through the overnight.
East to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph,
especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and
isolated power outages.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.
&&
Looks like I will be getting hammered!
WOW!!!
heehaw453- Posts : 1599
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
_________________
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
The GFS 12Z is very consistent with taking the 700mb/850mb lows over or just south of NYC. It's been rock steady on that. That keeps the thermals colder. The dry slot would be your biggest threat to snowfall amounts in that case.
heehaw453- Posts : 1599
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Frank-anticipated start & end time still holding firm to your prediction?
dsix85- Posts : 271
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@SoulSingMG wrote:I still hate the GFS inherently, but this is another step in the right direction for our relationship.
12z
Your true friends will warn you not to fall back into bad relationships. The GFS will always betray you.

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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Here are the majoir differences in why the GFS and the NAM are different. At 700mb you can clearly see the orientation on the NAM is SW to NE and further N overall. GFS on the other hand is oreinted more W to E and is further S.
This means less warm nosing into the coast plain on the GFS
While I didnt post the map below the 850 low passes south of LI which keeps that level below freezing for all. Its a subtle detail but little wobbles to these mid level features will mean ALLLLL the difference.


This means less warm nosing into the coast plain on the GFS
While I didnt post the map below the 850 low passes south of LI which keeps that level below freezing for all. Its a subtle detail but little wobbles to these mid level features will mean ALLLLL the difference.


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@dsix85 wrote:Frank-anticipated start & end time still holding firm to your prediction?
Yes!
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@rb924119 wrote:
This is my last post for a while, as I’ll be heading to work, but will follow along as best I can.
He's a warmicists and its about he track they dont have CAD we will have for God's sake its 200 plus miles from us - though there will be a warm tongue push but the air is very cold dense air and its being pumped down by a 1040 HP that has been jacked up by 939 LP over Newfoundland - lets not forget that!
Snowing moderately by my son at Penn State in State College - earlier than expected!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@sroc4 wrote:Here are the majoir differences in why the GFS and the NAM are different. At 700mb you can clearly see the orientation on the NAM is SW to NE and further N overall. GFS on the other hand is oreinted more W to E and is further S.
This means less warm nosing into the coast plain on the GFS
While I didnt post the map below the 850 low passes south of LI which keeps that level below freezing for all. Its a subtle detail but little wobbles to these mid level features will mean ALLLLL the difference.
True, but I still hate the H7 vort being right over us. Someone is going to pay for that.

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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Looking out my window at work can see the line of the advancing clouds/storm from the south
bloc1357- Posts : 311
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.
Current temps:

Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.

Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.

Current temps:

Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.

Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@mikeypizano wrote:...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to
24 inches.
* WHERE...Southern Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming
counties.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and
Thursday morning commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
are possible late this afternoon and through the overnight.
East to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph,
especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and
isolated power outages.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.
&&
Looks like I will be getting hammered!
You snowplow right? If so you better get some rest because you are going to be busy.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
27* and Cloudy Dewpoint 14* here at home base.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
26.5/15
Winds are already moving the trees just a bit...
Winds are already moving the trees just a bit...
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Let me ask this if possible. From what we have seen on the models which model is closest to actual setup so far?
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@Frank_Wx wrote:Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.
Current temps:
Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.
Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.
Good Morning,
I did not follow along yesterday(had a migrane and threw a tantrum..when I saw things going down hill..) back to my self today!! so I have a question on the first map..the cold line is the purple line. I am a tiny bit above the battle zone area..so I want to understand as I follow along. Currently at 31* with the real feel of 26 feel and smells like snow!! what ever we get we get..TIA winds are steady at 10 funny some coming out of north east other out of south east..is that part of the battle????
Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:11 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
The other intricate part of this equation is that the engine to the precip and intense rates isnt realy due to an intense bombing low due to phasing N and S energy followed by your classic comma shaped CCB. Instead its a purely southern stream system coming up the coast with enhanced lift being driven by a very steep pressure gradient combined with an upper level jet streak to our NE and a very strong baroclinic zone as the warm southern system runs into the cold arctic air. Because of this and cold dew points wet bulbing will also need to be factored in when looking at the warm nose and the heavy bands etc. Very intricate set up with many moving parts
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Can we trust the GFS Skew T?? It shows this red box area sounding not getting above 32* this keeping us all snow from about the Driscoll bridge N

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Some of that might be virga
Also, does anyone know what is wrong with this radar? It is my favorite one, but when I post it in the forum, it shows a completely different time stamp

But if you click the link, it should be correct.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@weatherwatchermom wrote:@Frank_Wx wrote:Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.
Current temps:
Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.
Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.
Good Morning,
I did not follow along yesterday(had a migrane and threw a tantrum..when I saw things going down hill..) back to my self today!! so I have a question on the first map..the cold line is the purple line. I am a tiny bit above the battle zone area..so I want to understand as I follow along. Currently at 31* with the real feel of 26 feel and smells like snow!! what ever we get we get..TIA winds are steady at 10 funny some coming out of north east other out of south east..is that part of the battle????
Yes it is! Your wet bulb temps looks lower than your current temp, and that will be key to watch as well. Especially see how it looks say 2 hours from now.
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
@Frank_Wx wrote:Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.
Current temps:
Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.
Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.
FWIW, the r/s line based off those images are exactly where the latest RPM has the r/s. Just south of LI. Budges into the south shore for an hour or so and then back to snow well offshore.
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations
Upton picking up on current obs:
'Forecast is generally on track. Temperature are a bit cooler
than previously forecasted, so lowered hourly and max
temperatures today. Also, winds are higher, so increased wind
speeds through the morning. This may be due to slightly higher
pressure in southeastern Canada than the models were showing
previously."
'Forecast is generally on track. Temperature are a bit cooler
than previously forecasted, so lowered hourly and max
temperatures today. Also, winds are higher, so increased wind
speeds through the morning. This may be due to slightly higher
pressure in southeastern Canada than the models were showing
previously."
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