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12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

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12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Empty Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:39 am

aiannone wrote:Upton raised amounts for Western sections of Suffolk County, LI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
851 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179-162300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
851 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
 York.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
 hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
 commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts could be a bit lower than
 forecast along south coastal portions of the region if sleet
 mixes in tonight.

If you don't mix it'll be blizzard conditions for sure! The winds are going to be very gusty.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:39 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 52199510

This is my last post for a while, as I’ll be heading to work, but will follow along as best I can.
Of course leave us with bad news thanks lol, have a great day!!

Dont worry Jon.  In Every storm some places bust low, and some bust high.  EVERY storm.  CAD isnt touching those areas or weakly at best. The Mid Atlantic and NE is where its strongest. Rays bias towards his original idea are leaking out with every comment today.  LOL  As is mine in the opposite direction.  If the immediate coast over performs there is legitimate reasoning as to why(see all my prev discussions.  If it under performs then there is legitimate reasons as to why (see Rays prev discussions).  Ive highlighted some of said discussions from both of us from back on the morning of Dec 11th.  Im pretty confident both of us will have parts of our discussions verify and parts of it go awry.  


ME:

"In addition the first system seem to create a kind of pseudo 50/50 low.  Combined with the PNA region out west its "just enough" to force the track no further west than a coastal hugger worst case scenario IMHO.....Regarding the PNA ridge GFS trend forecast(euro is modeled very similar in its timing and strength as well currently) has the 500mb forecast trending stronger In the NW CONUS right as our surface LP is coming off the EC.  If true the timing of the ridging is such that combined with the HP parked to the N, a pseudo 50/50 LP and the ridge going up instead of on its way down you get a trajectory NE and a track to the SE of LI somehwhere towards the BM.  NW of or SE of yet to be determined.   However if the timing of the ridge out west isnt modeled correctly then the track of the LP may flatten out and hence the more ENE track and miss to our SE.....still a LOOOONNGGG way to go with this one, but getting the HP set up to the N is step one to the equation which is looking more and more likely. Flooding the area with warm is is becoming less and less likely.  Dont get me wrong the coastal plain may still rain or mix if LP track is tucked in, but overall this set up is leaps and bounds better than the last.  "


RAY:

Just looking at these annotations and disregarding the rest of the hemisphere for a moment, you can see that our surface high pressure that initially starts to our northeast becomes contaminated with maritime polar air, thanks to Monday's energy allowing a secondary area of high pressure to slip off the East Coast ahead of the storm of interest. When you consider isallobaric and density components, this will begin imparting an effectual easterly "component" to the low-level and thermal flow, thereby moderating any true arctic component from the northern stream high. Secondly, because of the weakness that is created in response to the phasing of the displaced 50/50 low and Monday's energy beneath blocking that is a bit too far poleward, the phasing energies are forced to slip eastward beneath the block. As they do, they take our surface highs with them, and therefore, the proximity to our lone truly arctic low-level dome decreases as it shifts northeastward behind the departing phasing troughs. Then, as return flow increases in their wake, ridging begins to build behind them (red arrow).

Now, when you consider the rest of the hemispheric and tropical factors, such as the lack of a 70/70 ridge, a truly negative EPO/WPO(for this quick and dirty rebuttal I will consider them as neutral), a truly positive, and well oriented PNA (again, considering this as neutral), and unfavorable tropical forcings combined with anomalously warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters, to me we should see this overall pattern retract toward the pole a bit, thereby allowing everything to shift north (favorable confluence/low-level cold dome, 50/50 low, Atlantic ridge). As a result, then, it would stand to reason that a less favorable storm track and/or airmass becomes more likely than it appears right now in the modeling.


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:41 am; edited 1 time in total

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12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Empty Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:40 am

mikeypizano wrote:...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to
24 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming
counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and
Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
are possible late this afternoon and through the overnight.
East to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph,
especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and
isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.

&&

Looks like I will be getting hammered!

WOW!!!

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:41 am

This map will STAND AS CALLED this morning. No sense in micromanaging what we feel is a good product. If less sleet, lower end of the ranges verify. If more, the higher end. If minimal, locally higher possible. Battle zone nearest I-95. Sleet areas change to snow later overnight.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Fb_img13

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:44 am

I still hate the GFS inherently, but this is another step in the right direction for our relationship.

12z

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 9015df10
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:48 am

The GFS 12Z is very consistent with taking the 700mb/850mb lows over or just south of NYC. It's been rock steady on that. That keeps the thermals colder. The dry slot would be your biggest threat to snowfall amounts in that case.

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Post by dsix85 Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:49 am

Frank-anticipated start & end time still holding firm to your prediction?

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Post by essexcountypete Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:49 am

SoulSingMG wrote:I still hate the GFS inherently, but this is another step in the right direction for our relationship.

12z

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 9015df10

Your true friends will warn you not to fall back into bad relationships. The GFS will always betray you. Razz
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:50 am

Here are the majoir differences in why the GFS and the NAM are different.  At 700mb you can clearly see the orientation on the NAM is SW to NE and further N overall.  GFS on the other hand is oreinted more W to E and is further S.

This means less warm nosing into the coast plain on the GFS  

While I didnt post the map below the 850 low passes south of LI which keeps that level below freezing for all.  Its a subtle detail but little wobbles to these mid level features will mean ALLLLL the difference.  


12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Nam10
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Gfs13

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:52 am

dsix85 wrote:Frank-anticipated start & end time still holding firm to your prediction?

Yes!

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:53 am

rb924119 wrote:12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 52199510

This is my last post for a while, as I’ll be heading to work, but will follow along as best I can.

He's a warmicists and its about he track they dont have CAD we will have for God's sake its 200 plus miles from us - though there will be a warm tongue push but the air is very cold dense air and its being pumped down by a 1040 HP that has been jacked up by 939 LP over Newfoundland - lets not forget that!

Snowing moderately by my son at Penn State in State College - earlier than expected!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:53 am

sroc4 wrote:Here are the majoir differences in why the GFS and the NAM are different.  At 700mb you can clearly see the orientation on the NAM is SW to NE and further N overall.  GFS on the other hand is oreinted more W to E and is further S.

This means less warm nosing into the coast plain on the GFS  

While I didnt post the map below the 850 low passes south of LI which keeps that level below freezing for all.  Its a subtle detail but little wobbles to these mid level features will mean ALLLLL the difference.  


12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Nam10
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Gfs13

True, but I still hate the H7 vort being right over us. Someone is going to pay for that.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Gfs_z700_vort_neus_5

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Post by bloc1357 Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:56 am

Looking out my window at work can see the line of the advancing clouds/storm from the south

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:57 am

Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.

Current temps:

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Temps

Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Wet

Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Gfs

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Post by hyde345 Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:04 am

mikeypizano wrote:...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to
24 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming
counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and
Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
are possible late this afternoon and through the overnight.
East to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph,
especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and
isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.

&&

Looks like I will be getting hammered!


You snowplow right? If so you better get some rest because you are going to be busy.
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Post by billg315 Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:05 am

27* and Cloudy Dewpoint 14* here at home base.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:06 am

26.5/15

Winds are already moving the trees just a bit...

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Post by billg315 Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:07 am

Current radar situation:
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 2647cd10
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Post by Scullybutcher Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:07 am

Let me ask this if possible. From what we have seen on the models which model is closest to actual setup so far?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:07 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.

Current temps:

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Temps

Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Wet

Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Gfs

Good Morning,
I did not follow along yesterday(had a migrane and threw a tantrum..when I saw things going down hill..) back to my self today!! so I have a question on the first map..the cold line is the purple line. I am a tiny bit above the battle zone area..so I want to understand as I follow along. Currently at 31* with the real feel of 26 feel and smells like snow!! what ever we get we get..TIA winds are steady at 10 funny some coming out of north east other out of south east..is that part of the battle????


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:11 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:10 am

The other intricate part of this equation is that the engine to the precip and intense rates isnt realy due to an intense bombing low due to phasing N and S energy followed by your classic comma shaped CCB. Instead its a purely southern stream system coming up the coast with enhanced lift being driven by a very steep pressure gradient combined with an upper level jet streak to our NE and a very strong baroclinic zone as the warm southern system runs into the cold arctic air. Because of this and cold dew points wet bulbing will also need to be factored in when looking at the warm nose and the heavy bands etc. Very intricate set up with many moving parts

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:12 am

Can we trust the GFS Skew T?? It shows this red box area sounding not getting above 32* this keeping us all snow from about the Driscoll bridge N

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 EpXuo6RWEAwsOWX?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:16 am

billg315 wrote:Current radar situation:
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 2647cd10

Some of that might be virga

Also, does anyone know what is wrong with this radar? It is my favorite one, but when I post it in the forum, it shows a completely different time stamp

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Inxr1Kphla_h

But if you click the link, it should be correct.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:16 am

29.1/9 here
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12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Empty Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:18 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.

Current temps:

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Temps

Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Wet

Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Gfs

Good Morning,
I did not follow along yesterday(had a migrane and threw a tantrum..when I saw things going down hill..) back to my self today!! so I have a question on the first map..the cold line is the purple line. I am a tiny bit above the battle zone area..so I want to understand as I follow along. Currently at 31* with the real feel of 26 feel and smells like snow!! what ever we get we get..TIA winds are steady at 10  funny some coming out of north east other out of south east..is that part of the battle????

Yes it is! Your wet bulb temps looks lower than your current temp, and that will be key to watch as well. Especially see how it looks say 2 hours from now.

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12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Empty Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

Post by aiannone Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:19 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Today is going to be an epic battle between warm vs cold air. Tracking it will be lots of fun.

Current temps:

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Temps

Current wet bulb temps. Based off these two images, you can kind of tell where the R/S line might be.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Wet

Current surface depiction. Our storm is getting going off the coast of NC. The red line is the latest GFS track. This is what you want to track all day long. Does the low follow the due north-northwest path, or does it stay more north-northeast.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 5 Gfs

FWIW, the r/s line based off those images are exactly where the latest RPM has the r/s. Just south of LI. Budges into the south shore for an hour or so and then back to snow well offshore.
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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:20 am

Upton picking up on current obs:

'Forecast is generally on track. Temperature are a bit cooler
than previously forecasted, so lowered hourly and max
temperatures today. Also, winds are higher, so increased wind
speeds through the morning. This may be due to slightly higher
pressure in southeastern Canada than the models were showing
previously."
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