Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm looking forward to this event no matter what. We can't control the final out come so though I may be unhappy or surprised with what I get I realize I can't be selfish to those that jackpot. And complaining is not go change a thing but it's about damn time we see a good storm in this area. Of course in my own self interest bring it on for all if posdible!! Lol

This is the right attitude

can't promise I'll stay that way lol but thats only if I get totally screwed. Then I'll prolly just log out lol

by **billg315** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:37 pm

Alright. After days of model watching and trying to figure out what I THOUGHT was going to happen, I am fully ready to see what DOES happen. I'm all-in on now casting mode: Temps, radars, pressure readings and soundings. Bring it on. I'm heading back to the Billg Fortress which is stocked with beer for the storm!!

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:40 pm

Given the wind forecast on the coast and heavy snowfall this evening, i'm surprised a blizzard warning hasnt been issued or even a wind advisory

A blizzard warning (SAME code: BZW) is an advisory issued by the National Weather Service of the United States which means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph / 15 m/s or greater with heavy snow is forecast for a period of 3 hours or more.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:41 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:Can't wait for this to get going. Seems to be ramping up a bit earlier than progged.

Frank-- you still holding with your final call map or are there potential adjustments over the next few hours?

Overall, still looking like a solid event for me in NW NJ. Fingers cross that the dry slot stays south and west as shown on the HRRR.

In other news, I still have an inch on the ground from the last snow on Monday. That will help with instant accumulations!

24 degrees here in Hopatcong. It's REAL cold out there.

I keep going back and forth. Still thinking about it and waiting for more observations.

by DAYBLAZER Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:42 pm

billg315 wrote:Bring it on. I'm heading back to the Billg Fortress which is stocked with beer for the storm!!

What's on the menu? I have a 6 pack of Brooklyn Winter Lager, a 6 pack of Founders Porter, and a 12 pack of Miller Lite (known as "shovel beer" in my house because I don't mind if some snow gets in it while outside, its already watered down anyway.)

Oh, and some Irish Whiskey if times get tough (or if I just feel like tying one on) Very Happy

Biggest decision of the day will be whether I go with an Italian sub or a Roast beef sub for later.

WE TRACK.

by **dsix85** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:43 pm

Sroc-my neighbor to the north in Wading River..you think you eclipse a foot?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:49 pm

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:51 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:
billg315 wrote:Bring it on. I'm heading back to the Billg Fortress which is stocked with beer for the storm!!

What's on the menu? I have a 6 pack of Brooklyn Winter Lager, a 6 pack of Founders Porter, and a 12 pack of Miller Lite (known as "shovel beer" in my house because I don't mind if some snow gets in it while outside, its already watered down anyway.)

Oh, and some Irish Whiskey if times get tough (or if I just feel like tying one on)

Biggest decision of the day will be whether I go with an Italian sub or a Roast beef sub for later.

WE TRACK.

Ha Ha..homemade Mb in the crock pot..so I don't have to worry about feeding anyone later..lol enjoy the snow up there!!

by **billg315** Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:51 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:
billg315 wrote:Bring it on. I'm heading back to the Billg Fortress which is stocked with beer for the storm!!

What's on the menu? I have a 6 pack of Brooklyn Winter Lager, a 6 pack of Founders Porter, and a 12 pack of Miller Lite (known as "shovel beer" in my house because I don't mind if some snow gets in it while outside, its already watered down anyway.)

Oh, and some Irish Whiskey if times get tough (or if I just feel like tying one on)

WE TRACK.

Wide variety: Sunken Silo Wystouti American Stout, a Raspberry Milk Stout, Chocolate IPA, Smores Porter, Winter IPA, and another stout with a vanilla hint.

More than enough to get me through whatever heady excitements the heavy snow brings, or despairs that any mixing or dry-slotting may bring.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:02 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:02 pm

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 Hp10

Not trying to hype the situation, but the CAD is over performing. Let's use the 1020 mb pressure line as a reference. Blue is current observation. Red is where the 12z GFS when it initialized like 6 hours ago.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:02 pm

by emokid51783 Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:04 pm

dsix85 wrote:Sroc-my neighbor to the north in Wading River..you think you eclipse a foot?

DSix, you gotta love that Cold Air blocking coming thorough.

by **dsix85** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:05 pm

Crush job for Long Island!
Emo-how you fairing in Jersey City?

by emokid51783 Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:07 pm

dsix85 wrote:Crush job for Long Island!
Emo-how you fairing in Jersey City?

Cautiously optimistic over here, latest models keeping it white

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:08 pm

HRRR is nailing the CAD so far

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 Curren10

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 Hrrr_110

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:10 pm

temp trend on the last several HRRR runs - cold, colder, colder, colder

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 Hrrr_T2m_contour_neus_fh3_trend.gif.28f99a55bdfc5e5cbea1f38f9b380a4d

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 Hrrr_T2m_contour_neus_fh3_trend.gif.28f99a55bdfc5e5cbea1f38f9b380a4d

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:12 pm

I will be shocked if NYC/LI are not put under blizzard warnings in the afternoon package. It's getting clear which direction this storm is going for them.

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:12 pm

Governor Cumo will declare a state of Emergency for the folowing counties at 6 PM today- Putnam, Dutchess, Columbia, Greene, Ulster, Orange, Sulivan, Tioga, Delaware & Broome.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:12 pm

Current rain/snow line. By the way, this radar is posted as a link in the 'radar' tab up top

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 EpYI8X9XEAEO97y?format=jpg&name=large

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 EpYI8X9XEAEO97y?format=jpg&name=large

by **dsix85** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:13 pm

I think Long Island will do very well with this storm.

by **dsix85** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:14 pm

Frank-what window/time frame is the worst part of the storm in your opinion?

by **TheAresian** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:17 pm

Congratulations on the imminent Godzilla. Lot of uncertainty where I am, but I'd hazard a guess at 8-12". GFS and Euro are both predicting more even at 10:1, but I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than mildly disappointed. The white gold arrived an hour or so ahead of schedule and the ground is already covered. There's nothing like the sight of a fresh fallen snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:19 pm

dsix85 wrote:Frank-what window/time frame is the worst part of the storm in your opinion?

5pm-9pm round 1

4am-7am round 2 (CCB/backend MAYBE)

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:20 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I will be shocked if NYC/LI are not put under blizzard warnings in the afternoon package. It's getting clear which direction this storm is going for them.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 8 74585310

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:22 pm

by **dsix85** Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:26 pm

Alex- in St James you are getting the goods. I think you will top a foot.

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