Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

by dsix85 Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:21 am

Sroc- I am in Manorville, very close to R/S line I believe. You should be ok just to my north in Wading River.

by **SENJsnowman** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:21 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:I’ll try to keep my imby ramblings to a minimum here, but SROC, would a stronger, more south hp be able to save this for the Jersey Shore, or nah I’m just cooked on this one? Just 25-50 miles more SE is all I need. Ahhhh!

It might for sure. But Saved needs to be defined. You are pretty far south.

Read you loud and clear and I’ll stick with 3-5” net as my definition lol. All I’m looking for is my Hail Mary play here. Ha ha. Either way, knowing it’s probably a 1/20 chance, this is going to be an exciting day! But all that said,

MY FELLOW JERSEY COASTIES remember Jan 2016! 17” and no mixing!!! We were progged that day for C-2”. And March 2018! A 12” death band with the thunder snow hit us from out of no where when we were progged for ALL rain. NOW is the time to go full Jersey Shore weenie wishcasting!!! Just don’t over do it, too much energy creates warmth, not what we need now!

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:26 am

I think the winds are going to be significant factor in this storm. If we are lucky enough not to mix, then I think blizzard conditions will be met especially for NYC/LI. Even inland with frequent gusts.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:31 am

@heehaw453 wrote:I think the winds are going to be significant factor in this storm. If we are lucky enough not to mix, then I think blizzard conditions will be met especially for NYC/LI. Even inland with frequent gusts.

Theres a high wind warning for all of the jersey coast and winds 40-55mph for most other areas the higher end LI. So I do personally think that we will actually see blizzard headlines go up at some point but it may not be until the storm is right upon us. That RPM model has a crazy 18-24 area and I would take that in a second. Even 8-12 is great and am hoping frank moves the higher aounts in his map into my area. Frank are you going to physically update your map and do a 3rd call?

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:35 am

FRONTGEN NAYONE !!! MOMMA MIA THAT IS 3" PER HR PUKING RATES ON THIS!!! and yes JMAN it will Move North
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 EpXKougWEAECMSA?format=png&name=medium

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 EpXKougWEAECMSA?format=png&name=medium

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:38 am

@aiannone wrote:Latest RPM from my friend who is a tv met

Why does he not post here???

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:39 am

@amugs wrote:FRONTGEN NAYONE !!! MOMMA MIA THAT IS 3" PER HR PUKING RATES ON THIS!!! and yes JMAN it will Move North

MADONNE

by **aiannone** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:49 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Latest RPM from my friend who is a tv met

Why does he not post here???

He is in Burlington, VT. I could ask if he is interested. We are good friends from college.

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:53 am

The pressure gradient between 1040mb H and the < 1000mb low will cause some serious wind. Many times high pressure is retreating as the storm approaches and you'd never see the kind of winds we'll get with a 997mb Low. Many times it takes bombs to generate some real wind, but not in this case. Very interesting setup.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:55 am

Frank, can you post the 5z, 6z and 7z for this? Wouls like to see how it moves after 4Z

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:FRONTGEN NAYONE !!! MOMMA MIA THAT IS 3" PER HR PUKING RATES ON THIS!!! and yes JMAN it will Move North

MADONNE

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:57 am

@heehaw453 wrote:The pressure gradient between 1040mb H and the < 1000mb low will cause some serious wind. Many times high pressure is retreating as the storm approaches and you'd never see the kind of winds we'll get with a 997mb Low. Many times it takes bombs to generate some real wind, but not in this case. Very interesting setup.

yeah i was actually surprised to see wind headlines for such a weak system, so basically its due to the high being so strong and the LP pressing into it and they are kinda pushing each other into a press which creates a tighter gradient? Is that kinda it? Like two almost qual sumo wresstlers and the wind is between them cuz neither can push the other completely out.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:58 am

@amugs wrote:FRONTGEN NAYONE !!! MOMMA MIA THAT IS 3" PER HR PUKING RATES ON THIS!!! and yes JMAN it will Move North

jeeze im so predictable now that mugs points it out to me first lol, i knew it does though just by looking at it and by the discussion last night, i didnt think it would have changed much.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:09 am

There is a big difference between fresh or take care and we treating arctic air right before a storm. The late Meteorologist Norm Macdonald said You can always gauge the strength of a high-pressure system by the wind as fresh arctic air Will increase the likelihood for an all snow event but a retreating high-pressure system won't have any wind that increases a chance for a change over to rain. Interesting and he was a great one.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:12 am

Next Frame of DEATH BAND
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 Nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_24

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:12 am

I hear you, Scott. I just don’t think the synoptic alignment supports staying power. Also, neither do the 12z NAMs Laughing

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:15 am

12Z NAM
SNOW
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 1608260400-ibMoL3M9me8

SLEET

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 1608260400-RvCREbGD4lk

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:20 am

@amugs wrote:12Z NAM
SNOW

SLEET

Literally matches my mix line forecast 100% lol

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:21 am

@rb924119 wrote:I hear you, Scott. I just don’t think the synoptic alignment supports staying power. Also, neither do the 12z NAMs

Well I guess if you want to buy the NAM verbatim.... Wink

by **docstox12** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:21 am

@amugs wrote:12Z NAM
SNOW

SLEET

Good grief what a sharp cut off! Must be that dry slot or mixing?

by DAYBLAZER Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:24 am

Question for all you smarter-than-me folks out there: Does elevations play any role in determining if sleet falls as opposed to snow? For instance, I'm at 1100 ft in Hopatcong, my buddy lives a few miles away but hes on the lake, about 400 ft. Would this effect our snow totals even though we live so close?

Can't wait to track with y'all today!

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:24 am

There's your 750 warm tongue signature for my area in black - but it is brief at best and we sleet

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 Inkedn10

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:26 am

3K NAM 4 panels of precip types
12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 Nam-218-all-pennsylvania-total_precip_ptype_fourpanel-8206400.png.637ca75dad313114bb15374f3735fce2

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 3 Nam-218-all-pennsylvania-total_precip_ptype_fourpanel-8206400.png.637ca75dad313114bb15374f3735fce2

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:28 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I hear you, Scott. I just don’t think the synoptic alignment supports staying power. Also, neither do the 12z NAMs

Well I guess if you want to buy the NAM verbatim....

Always a risk, that’s definitely true ahaha but, to me, it makes the most physical sense and also matches my previous experience and initial thoughts, so I’ll go with it. If the others jump on board, that would be even better.

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:30 am

@DAYBLAZER wrote:Question for all you smarter-than-me folks out there: Does elevations play any role in determining if sleet falls as opposed to snow? For instance, I'm at 1100 ft in Hopatcong, my buddy lives a few miles away but hes on the lake, about 400 ft. Would this effect our snow totals even though we live so close?

Can't wait to track with y'all today!

To some extent, yes, thought nearly as much as with storm in October or April with a much more marginal background state.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:46 am

The NAM I wil ltake in a heartbeat I sleet about .1-.25 so the snow map shows me around 18 so take the high end and i still get 15 snow verbatim. I feel like thats one of NAMS best runs

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