12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

DAYBLAZER wrote:Question for all you smarter-than-me folks out there: Does elevations play any role in determining if sleet falls as opposed to snow? For instance, I'm at 1100 ft in Hopatcong, my buddy lives a few miles away but hes on the lake, about 400 ft. Would this effect our snow totals even though we live so close?

Can't wait to track with y'all today!

To some extent, yes, thought nearly as much as with storm in October or April with a much more marginal background state.

The NAM I wil ltake in a heartbeat I sleet about .1-.25 so the snow map shows me around 18 so take the high end and i still get 15 snow verbatim. I feel like thats one of NAMS best runs

If this is true it will bode well for the thermals especially in NYC. The SLP is exiting the coast off the Delmarva.

I don't have the other lows (700/850), but this would be a good track.  HRRR 13Z run.

BIG IF of course.

amugs wrote:3K NAM 4 panels of precip types

thats some major icing at .75-1.0, that would be crushing to that area on top of snow.

RGEM is now warmer. Rain almost to NYC.

Can’t figure out how to post a .gif lol

rb924119 wrote:RGEM is now warmer. Rain almost to NYC.

Rbbbbbbbb, lol. Let us have our snowstorm!

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/12162020am_winterstorm_public.pdf

Upton briefing, pretty much in line with everything spoke about, the second to last page is the concerning one with the circled area being the most likely for tree damage and power outages.

Just for fun, and for the first time in about two years, taking a shot at a snow map. Initial disclosure: Maps provided by Frank and Scott (and some others as well) are likely to be more reliable. I post these based on my best guess, but I tend to defer to guys like Frank, Scott, and Ray who have a better in-depth knowledge of some of this stuff.
In the map below:
Green: Mostly rain. If anything maybe a quick shot of snow on the back end coats the ground with an inch or two.
Yellow/Orange: Snow, mixing with sleet and maybe even some rain keeping totals lower. This area just north of Philly into west-central NJ also accounts for the dry slotting that may occur (same as a portion of the Light Blue area) 4-8".
Light Blue: Snow with some sleet mixing in briefly mid-storm. Also, this area to the west accounts for that persistent dry slotting that some models are showing that could appear mid storm. 8-12"
Purple: Mostly snow. 12-16"
Pinkish Red: Snow, and the heaviest bands set up in here, so higher totals. 16-20"

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:RGEM is now warmer. Rain almost to NYC.

Rbbbbbbbb, lol. Let us have our snowstorm!

I have come to the conclusion that he always wants to play it down so if it doesnt work out his butt is covered and if he isn't right we are all happy. It's a win/win for him. totally joshing ya Rb all in good fun and your analysis are all pretty valid but I dunno if ur right.  I stil lthing the only concern area is south of NYC maybe including NYC and LI for a short period.  Theres no denying that there could be sleet at some point.  Would not surprise me though to see mainly snow in most locations.  Lets track and enjoy!! No one is gonna get shit done today or sleep lol.  I stupidly left grocery shopping till now ugg

NWS Mount Holly:

“ At
this point, not expecting things to change significantly. 12z RAOBs
to our south (IAD and WAL) suggest the warm nose aloft may be
pushing in a little faster than modeled with temperatures above
freezing around 800mb. However, this is hard to judge until
precipitation begins and the column becomes more saturated, and wet
bulb effects are accounted for both at the surface and aloft. So
will continue to wait and see for now...”

Hmmm.....what did we say about not getting work done today??  I feel like the only work that I have done is hit the refresh button for this board....LOL

billg315 wrote:Just for fun, and for the first time in about two years, taking a shot at a snow map. Initial disclosure: Maps provided by Frank and Scott (and some others as well) are likely to be more reliable. I post these based on my best guess, but I tend to defer to guys like Frank, Scott, and Ray who have a better in-depth knowledge of some of this stuff.
In the map below:
Green: Mostly rain. If anything maybe a quick shot of snow on the back end coats the ground with an inch or two.
Yellow/Orange: Snow, mixing with sleet and maybe even some rain keeping totals lower. This area just north of Philly into west-central NJ also accounts for the dry slotting that may occur (same as a portion of the Light Blue area) 4-8".
Light Blue: Snow with some sleet mixing in briefly mid-storm. Also, this area to the west accounts for that persistent dry slotting that some models are showing that could appear mid storm. 8-12"
Purple: Mostly snow. 12-16"
Pinkish Red: Snow, and the heaviest bands set up in here, so higher totals. 16-20"

Nice map!! It looks like you shook the rust off pretty quick haha

billg315 wrote:Just for fun, and for the first time in about two years, taking a shot at a snow map. Initial disclosure: Maps provided by Frank and Scott (and some others as well) are likely to be more reliable. I post these based on my best guess, but I tend to defer to guys like Frank, Scott, and Ray who have a better in-depth knowledge of some of this stuff.
In the map below:
Green: Mostly rain. If anything maybe a quick shot of snow on the back end coats the ground with an inch or two.
Yellow/Orange: Snow, mixing with sleet and maybe even some rain keeping totals lower. This area just north of Philly into west-central NJ also accounts for the dry slotting that may occur (same as a portion of the Light Blue area) 4-8".
Light Blue: Snow with some sleet mixing in briefly mid-storm. Also, this area to the west accounts for that persistent dry slotting that some models are showing that could appear mid storm. 8-12"
Purple: Mostly snow. 12-16"
Pinkish Red: Snow, and the heaviest bands set up in here, so higher totals. 16-20"

Nice water colors, are you sure my daughter didnt paint this? It def sems accurate, I really do not like where I sit in terms of the potential for mixing to move ever so slightly north to take me out of the purple of course if it stays more SE then I get into the biggest snows which you also have me on the cusp of. _287 is often seen a lot more snow in some storms and thats where you have the line about which is 16 miles away to my north. razor thin. NYC I did a search on birds eye and it is about 20 miles, so I have a swing area of about 35 miles. :Lets hope that 35 miles is all SE : ) That would bode well for a lot of people.

20.8° and waiting.

Since I haven't seen a map yet with less than 12 inches for my area for days and some exceeding 20 I'd have to say anything less than 12 right now I'd have to declare a major disappointment.

As one of my all time favorites sang "The waiting is the hardest part"

As always I will be on the lookout for sleet, even 50 miles north of the city where I'm located I've seen it sneak in unexpectedly before, sometimes with temperatures in the low and mid 20's.

rb924119 wrote:NWS Mount Holly:

“ At  
 this point, not expecting things to change significantly. 12z RAOBs  
 to our south (IAD and WAL) suggest the warm nose aloft may be  
 pushing in a little faster than modeled with temperatures above  
 freezing around 800mb. However, this is hard to judge until  
 precipitation begins and the column becomes more saturated, and wet  
 bulb effects are accounted for both at the surface and aloft. So  
 will continue to wait and see for now...”

Never underestimate the power of mid level warming. I completely agree with you. If the track is more tucked, then it won't matter too much about the surface and low level cold as the snow will melt and come down as sleet. I don't expect too much freezing rain with this as the it's a very shallow warm nose.

This is my last post for a while, as I’ll be heading to work, but will follow along as best I can.

Oh BTW out of curiousity I searched yonkers elevation, some of our buildings are higher lol 81' LOL

rb924119 wrote:

This is my last post for a while, as I’ll be heading to work, but will follow along as best I can.

Of course leave us with bad news thanks lol, have a great day!!

NFSWx Pro Met:
he initial warm air advection as the ULL presses into the Arctic High will produce Adiabatic cooling to counter the warm surge, during the period of max lift intense adiabatic cooling will change any borderline mix to snow... i am not expecting to see much sleet in the areas advertised as such... CAD is notoriously under-modeled even for currents OBS standards... and the CAD will aid the column during the intense period of best lift/mid level dynamics... anyone within and north of the FGEN banding max will change to snow imo

Upton raised amounts for Western sections of Suffolk County, LI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
851 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179-162300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
851 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts could be a bit lower than
forecast along south coastal portions of the region if sleet
mixes in tonight.

Catching up on the latest, and it looks like we will get anywhere from 4 inches to 17 inches of snow

Oh! And Alexa figured out his elevation in Yonkers in 81' (only those in the chat last night will get the reference)

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

This is my last post for a while, as I’ll be heading to work, but will follow along as best I can.

Of course leave us with bad news thanks lol, have a great day!!

LOL! Each time he posts the snow weenie in me screams out like Captain Kirk..."KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNN!!!!!!"

amugs wrote:NFSWx Pro Met:
he initial warm air advection as the ULL presses into the Arctic High will produce Adiabatic cooling to counter the warm surge, during the period of max lift intense adiabatic cooling will change any borderline mix to snow... i am not expecting to see much sleet in the areas advertised as such... CAD is notoriously under-modeled even for currents OBS standards... and the CAD will aid the column during the intense period of best lift/mid level dynamics... anyone within and north of the FGEN banding max will change to snow imo

This is my hope, but I still would feel better about that surface low coming off the Delmarva instead of going over northern DE. It'll make a big difference...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to
24 inches.

* WHERE...Southern Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming
counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and
Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
are possible late this afternoon and through the overnight.
East to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph,
especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and
isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.

&&

Looks like I will be getting hammered!

aiannone wrote:Upton raised amounts for Western sections of Suffolk County, LI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
851 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179-162300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
851 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
 York.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
 hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
 commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts could be a bit lower than
 forecast along south coastal portions of the region if sleet
 mixes in tonight.

If you don't mix it'll be blizzard conditions for sure! The winds are going to be very gusty.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

This is my last post for a while, as I’ll be heading to work, but will follow along as best I can.

Of course leave us with bad news thanks lol, have a great day!!

Dont worry Jon.  In Every storm some places bust low, and some bust high.  EVERY storm.  CAD isnt touching those areas or weakly at best. The Mid Atlantic and NE is where its strongest. Rays bias towards his original idea are leaking out with every comment today.  LOL  As is mine in the opposite direction.  If the immediate coast over performs there is legitimate reasoning as to why(see all my prev discussions.  If it under performs then there is legitimate reasons as to why (see Rays prev discussions).  Ive highlighted some of said discussions from both of us from back on the morning of Dec 11th.  Im pretty confident both of us will have parts of our discussions verify and parts of it go awry.  


ME:

"In addition the first system seem to create a kind of pseudo 50/50 low.  Combined with the PNA region out west its "just enough" to force the track no further west than a coastal hugger worst case scenario IMHO.....Regarding the PNA ridge GFS trend forecast(euro is modeled very similar in its timing and strength as well currently) has the 500mb forecast trending stronger In the NW CONUS right as our surface LP is coming off the EC.  If true the timing of the ridging is such that combined with the HP parked to the N, a pseudo 50/50 LP and the ridge going up instead of on its way down you get a trajectory NE and a track to the SE of LI somehwhere towards the BM.  NW of or SE of yet to be determined.   However if the timing of the ridge out west isnt modeled correctly then the track of the LP may flatten out and hence the more ENE track and miss to our SE.....still a LOOOONNGGG way to go with this one, but getting the HP set up to the N is step one to the equation which is looking more and more likely. Flooding the area with warm is is becoming less and less likely.  Dont get me wrong the coastal plain may still rain or mix if LP track is tucked in, but overall this set up is leaps and bounds better than the last.  "

RAY:

Just looking at these annotations and disregarding the rest of the hemisphere for a moment, you can see that our surface high pressure that initially starts to our northeast becomes contaminated with maritime polar air, thanks to Monday's energy allowing a secondary area of high pressure to slip off the East Coast ahead of the storm of interest. When you consider isallobaric and density components, this will begin imparting an effectual easterly "component" to the low-level and thermal flow, thereby moderating any true arctic component from the northern stream high. Secondly, because of the weakness that is created in response to the phasing of the displaced 50/50 low and Monday's energy beneath blocking that is a bit too far poleward, the phasing energies are forced to slip eastward beneath the block. As they do, they take our surface highs with them, and therefore, the proximity to our lone truly arctic low-level dome decreases as it shifts northeastward behind the departing phasing troughs. Then, as return flow increases in their wake, ridging begins to build behind them (red arrow).

Now, when you consider the rest of the hemispheric and tropical factors, such as the lack of a 70/70 ridge, a truly negative EPO/WPO(for this quick and dirty rebuttal I will consider them as neutral), a truly positive, and well oriented PNA (again, considering this as neutral), and unfavorable tropical forcings combined with anomalously warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters, to me we should see this overall pattern retract toward the pole a bit, thereby allowing everything to shift north (favorable confluence/low-level cold dome, 50/50 low, Atlantic ridge). As a result, then, it would stand to reason that a less favorable storm track and/or airmass becomes more likely than it appears right now in the modeling.