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January 2021 Observations and Discussion

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:45 am

Could not wait to get this thread going! Good riddance 2020 is done! Temps down to 27*, looking forward to another rain event for me tomorrow (NOT!)

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:58 am

I am with you Janet Thank God 2020 is over and I hope 2021 brings good health peace and happiness to everyone and most of all let’s hope and pray to God this Covid goes away So we can move on with our normal lives again happy new year everyone

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:04 am

NAO trending stronger = slows down LP and allows more cold to intrude as the HP gets slowed as well and is stronger. From Mike Sullivan on Twitter

January 2021 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_fh72_trend.gif.310a0601e491df58622e58932bee8421

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:45 am

Looks like some incoming slop up here around dinner

2021. Best to everyone
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:49 pm

January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

January 2021 Observations and Discussion 5885e110

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:09 pm

Happy New Year, everybody!!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:13 pm

@sroc4 wrote:January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

January 2021 Observations and Discussion 5885e110

You might have to retire from map-making Scott; Jman’s daughter is making a run for your position Laughing just kidding, buddy hahaha seems to be in line with Frank’s thoughts, as well as some recent guidance,though lower with the actual totals compared to Frank’s initial thoughts and some shorter range guidance (GEM suite). Will be interesting to see how this plays given the ideas already discussed Smile

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:27 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

January 2021 Observations and Discussion 5885e110

You might have to retire from map-making Scott; Jman’s daughter is making a run for your position Laughing just kidding, buddy hahaha seems to be in line with Frank’s thoughts, as well as some recent guidance,though lower with the actual totals compared to Frank’s initial thoughts and some shorter range guidance (GEM suite). Will be interesting to see how this plays given the ideas already discussed Smile
Ahahaha, i was thinking same b4 i read your post rb. Yes scott my daughter will need to take over if she takes her time her coloring is great, looks like this if shes just being impatient. totally kidding no reason put out a great map for a nothing system. Honestly I think rain will be much further north into NYC and even into my area, yeah you say white rain but I dunno, we will see. I got a update on my daughters friend if banter, and its somewhat good news.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:30 pm

Based on what I see NOW I don't see 6"+ with this one. 2-4" NEPA, NW NJ, to the I84 corridor. I think a sloppy inch maybe NW of the 95 straddling the I78 corridor. The ULL just goes too far north for my liking here with a poor antecedent air mass. A possible stall of the low pressure dumping prodigious snows has been shown for CNE/NNE, but guidance is really split on that.

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Post by Taffy Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:50 pm

I'm under a winter advisory from 7pm until 10am. Mixed rain and snow with snow accumulation of 2-3". Ice 1/10".

32 degrees, wind at 3.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

January 2021 Observations and Discussion 5885e110

You might have to retire from map-making Scott; Jman’s daughter is making a run for your position Laughing just kidding, buddy hahaha seems to be in line with Frank’s thoughts, as well as some recent guidance,though lower with the actual totals compared to Frank’s initial thoughts and some shorter range guidance (GEM suite). Will be interesting to see how this plays given the ideas already discussed Smile
Ahahaha, i was thinking same b4 i read your post rb.  Yes scott my daughter will need to take over if she takes her time her coloring is great, looks like this if shes just being impatient.  totally kidding no reason put out a great map for a nothing system.  Honestly I think rain will be much further north into NYC and even into my area, yeah you say white rain but I dunno, we will see.  I got a update on my daughters friend if banter, and its somewhat good news.

Both of you....ggrrr. Lol. I made it on my iPhone; not my pc, by taking a snap shot and using my finger. Lol. It’s the best I could do on mobile.

I posted my final call map in Banter for both of you Ray and Jon Wink

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:32 pm

I’m saying “Yes! to the map”
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Post by brownie Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:57 pm

Sleeting here now.  Winter Weather Advisory until 10 pm for sleet and freezing rain.  I am positive that advisory was not there earlier today.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:10 pm

Light freezing rain. Deck is getting a bit of glaze.

32/30

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:35 pm

Rgem and 3K nam look nice for the city north and west for Sunday Sunday night
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:48 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:January 3rd-4th:

BLUE: a couple to a few inches possible south to north
Yellow: White rain possible to maybe coating non paved
Green: cold rain

January 2021 Observations and Discussion 5885e110

You might have to retire from map-making Scott; Jman’s daughter is making a run for your position Laughing just kidding, buddy hahaha seems to be in line with Frank’s thoughts, as well as some recent guidance,though lower with the actual totals compared to Frank’s initial thoughts and some shorter range guidance (GEM suite). Will be interesting to see how this plays given the ideas already discussed Smile
Ahahaha, i was thinking same b4 i read your post rb.  Yes scott my daughter will need to take over if she takes her time her coloring is great, looks like this if shes just being impatient.  totally kidding no reason put out a great map for a nothing system.  Honestly I think rain will be much further north into NYC and even into my area, yeah you say white rain but I dunno, we will see.  I got a update on my daughters friend if banter, and its somewhat good news.

Both of you....ggrrr. Lol. I made it on my iPhone; not my pc, by taking a snap shot and using my finger. Lol. It’s the best I could do on mobile.

I posted my final call map in Banter for both of you Ray and Jon Wink

I’m only busting your chops, buddy haha it successfully gets the point across, and that’s all that matters lmao I must say, though, that your “final call” map is hilarious ahahaha well done, my friend , well done! The accuracy of the tip of the middle finger getting right to Jman’s snow hole is incredible lmaoooo

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:49 pm

@Taffy wrote:I'm under a winter advisory from 7pm until 10am. Mixed rain and snow with snow accumulation of 2-3". Ice 1/10".

32 degrees, wind at 3.

Ewww lol definitely not jealous of that lol personally, if given a choice between that and plain rain, I’d take plain rain every time.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:51 pm

I am getting sleet/rain mix at 36.3*. Interesting where the rain/frozen line is. Can I hang on and not get the rain?

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:20 pm

Sleeting here with some rain mixed in as I was out.
Sunday night looks interesting. Need this wave to get out before we figure out Sunday.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:22 pm

Light snow sleet mix here on the north shore
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:35 pm

@algae888 wrote:Rgem and 3K nam look nice for the city north and west for Sunday Sunday night

I think they're going to come in line with the Euro and GFS soon. I think this storm will tuck more at the 850/700 mb layers just because the ULL is so far northwest. I was hoping that wouldn't happen, but I see no evidence of that ULL not getting to Lake Erie area. What may happen though is the storm starts to intensify and crawl as it hits the Gulf of Maine which benefits more of CNE/NNE. I know the RGEM and NAM are showing 2' amounts in CT and MA as the storm stalls as it heads Cape Code, but I'm really skeptical due to the track and lack of cold air.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:39 pm

Here is the RGEM run

January 2021 Observations and Discussion Rgem-all-ma-instant_ptype-1609524000-1609686000-1609758000-20

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:47 pm

Sunday into Monday Folks
EURO 850 Vort in deep purple - good location off the SNJ Shore
January 2021 Observations and Discussion 1609707600-ztk6Bc4L9R8

700 MB Vort looks good as well off the Jersey Shore
January 2021 Observations and Discussion 1609729200-yVwblT7yAwo


Interesting to see how this will play out



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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:58 pm

Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900


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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:00 pm

@amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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