January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not!

Dunnzoo wrote:

amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not!

True but their presentation of this looks like we are on fire for January. Where's SYO for this map?? Anyone? (JK here peeps)

Dunnzoo wrote:

amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not!

I wish this was it worked haha

This based on a tercile system, where chances (per climatology) are 33.3% of above average, near average, and below average (think of a bell curve, where the statistical peak of the curve would be centered in the middle of the chunk of the 33.3% that’s “near average” if the three categories were placed side by side horizontally on a line. What this graphic is saying, is that the bell curve is shifted 50% to the warm side, or in terms of absolute probabilities, 50% chance of near to above average (1.5x33.3%), and then 16.7% (near normal) + 16.7% (below average), 33.3% chance of near to below average (off slightly due to rounding), and then 16.7% chance of being solidly below average.

At least I think that’s how it works haha hopefully it makes sense, though. Paging @Math23x7 for any insight here lol

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not!

I wish this was it worked haha

This based on a tercile system, where chances (per climatology) are 33.3% of above average, near average, and below average (think of a bell curve, where the statistical peak of the curve would be centered in the middle of the chunk of the 33.3% that’s “near average” if the three categories were placed side by side horizontally on a line. What this graphic is saying, is that the bell curve is shifted 50% to the warm side, or in terms of absolute probabilities, 50% chance of near to above average (1.5x33.3%), and then 16.7% (near normal) + 16.7% (below average), 33.3% chance of near to below average (off slightly due to rounding), and then 16.7% chance of being solidly below average.

At least I think that’s how it works haha hopefully it makes sense, though. Paging @Math23x7 for any insight here lol

haha yeah, knew it wasn't that simple, just trying to add a little optimism here

Oo, my bad Dunnz

But this does demonstrate some of the issues that I’ve previously highlighted regarding the functionality/effectiveness of the blocking that’s going to develop in the Atlantic domains.

Just rain here now, at 34*

Euro for Sun/Mon - a period that was to be a torch 5/6 days ago - LOL!

Started a thread for Sunday's storm

Some snow showers Manana  for our NW posters here = coating to maybe .5"
GFS dos better with the Northern Stream Vorts I have found over the years - right? wrong?

43* and Cloudy here. I'd love to get in on some of those snow showers tomorrow. Sign me up.
Definitely keeping an eye on next Monday as well.

We had nothing but rain yesterday night. Hoping one of these upcoming systems plays out, I would prefer the 11/12th storm personally.

So close - the rogue vort is gone but too late. Block is too far south to allow this to come up the coast into our region but maybe get into N Va

This is a picture of a town well away from the coast in Newfoundland, CA.  Let me check, oh yes it's definitely well into January now and there is not a trace of snow OTG.

Flurrying.

36* Cloudy. Radar showed a rogue snow shower coming through here early this afternoon and figured I'd see some flurries, but it never seemed to materialize at the surface level so just virga I guess.

Happy Sunday! 28 for the low this morning.

LOL, Greybeard.The only thing I would add is have those two feet on their sides so they "fell".

Cloudy and cold.Still have some snow on shadier areas of the property.

Cloudy and chilly here at 36*

Couple of snow showers today. Surface @ 38.5, but 850's at -7 C. Very cold air aloft...

More snow showers are possible as a strong cold front moves through on Wednesday morning/afternoon.

Snow shower, moderate.Nice to see some snow again.

Looks like there may be some snow showers around for many Wednesday morning

sroc4 wrote:Looks like there may be some snow showers around for many Wednesday morning

Yea came here to say the same! Nice little squalls possible for the entire area

Looks to be even some snow showers to our west this morning in PA. One looks like it could even reach NW NJ briefly if it doesn't die out first.

Snow showers today.  Second day in a row.  Tomorrow could actually produce some measurable snow in some areas. C-1" tomorrow seems possible as guidance continues to hit on that idea.

Flakes flying in Bloomfield. Temp 41.

Weeeeeeee!