NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 2021 Observations and Discussion

+20
SENJsnowman
Grselig
essexcountypete
docstox12
GreyBeard
weatherwatchermom
billg315
Frank_Wx
aiannone
algae888
brownie
Taffy
heehaw453
jmanley32
rb924119
sroc4
dkodgis
amugs
frank 638
Dunnzoo
24 posters

Page 2 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:06 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

True but their presentation of this looks like we are on fire for January. Where's SYO for this map?? Anyone? (JK here peeps)

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12357
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:28 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

I wish this was it worked haha

This based on a tercile system, where chances (per climatology) are 33.3% of above average, near average, and below average (think of a bell curve, where the statistical peak of the curve would be centered in the middle of the chunk of the 33.3% that’s “near average” if the three categories were placed side by side horizontally on a line. What this graphic is saying, is that the bell curve is shifted 50% to the warm side, or in terms of absolute probabilities, 50% chance of near to above average (1.5x33.3%), and then 16.7% (near normal) + 16.7% (below average), 33.3% chance of near to below average (off slightly due to rounding), and then 16.7% chance of being solidly below average.

At least I think that’s how it works haha hopefully it makes sense, though. Paging @Math23x7 for any insight here lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:06 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

I wish this was it worked haha

This based on a tercile system, where chances (per climatology) are 33.3% of above average, near average, and below average (think of a bell curve, where the statistical peak of the curve would be centered in the middle of the chunk of the 33.3% that’s “near average” if the three categories were placed side by side horizontally on a line. What this graphic is saying, is that the bell curve is shifted 50% to the warm side, or in terms of absolute probabilities, 50% chance of near to above average (1.5x33.3%), and then 16.7% (near normal) + 16.7% (below average), 33.3% chance of near to below average (off slightly due to rounding), and then 16.7% chance of being solidly below average.

At least I think that’s how it works haha hopefully it makes sense, though. Paging @Math23x7 for any insight here lol

haha yeah, knew it wasn't that simple, just trying to add a little optimism here jocolor

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4394
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:22 pm

Oo, my bad Dunnz Sad

But this does demonstrate some of the issues that I’ve previously highlighted regarding the functionality/effectiveness of the blocking that’s going to develop in the Atlantic domains.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:41 pm

Just rain here now, at 34*

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4394
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:44 pm

Euro for Sun/Mon - a period that was to be a torch 5/6 days ago - LOL!

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype-1609524000-1609686000-1609761600-40

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12357
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:26 pm

Started a thread for Sunday's storm

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20049
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:43 pm

Some snow showers Manana  for our NW posters here = coating to maybe .5"
GFS dos better with the Northern Stream Vorts I have found over the years - right? wrong?

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype-1609761600-1609826400-1609869600-40

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1609912800-bjUSf07aq14

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12357
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:49 pm

43* and Cloudy here. I'd love to get in on some of those snow showers tomorrow. Sign me up.
Definitely keeping an eye on next Monday as well.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3681
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:02 pm

We had nothing but rain yesterday night. Hoping one of these upcoming systems plays out, I would prefer the 11/12th storm personally.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18362
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:22 am

So close - the rogue vort is gone but too late. Block is too far south to allow this to come up the coast into our region but maybe get into N Va

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 F3E543B6-3F69-4A74-921D-FADD7003E055.png.fbf5322dccedf7d95a9614d54bd06c6b

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12357
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:47 pm

This is a picture of a town well away from the coast in Newfoundland, CA.  Let me check, oh yes it's definitely well into January now and there is not a trace of snow OTG.

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nfl10

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:55 am

Flurrying.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1568
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:26 pm

36* Cloudy. Radar showed a rogue snow shower coming through here early this afternoon and figured I'd see some flurries, but it never seemed to materialize at the surface level so just virga I guess.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3681
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:28 am

Happy Sunday! 28 for the low this morning.
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3013
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:28 pm

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 2_feet10

GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 591
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:48 am

LOL, Greybeard.The only thing I would add is have those two feet on their sides so they "fell".

Cloudy and cold.Still have some snow on shadier areas of the property.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7251
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:42 am

Cloudy and chilly here at 36*

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12357
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:40 pm

Couple of snow showers today. Surface @ 38.5, but 850's at -7 C. Very cold air aloft...

More snow showers are possible as a strong cold front moves through on Wednesday morning/afternoon.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:43 pm

Snow shower, moderate.Nice to see some snow again.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7251
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:53 pm

Looks like there may be some snow showers around for many Wednesday morning

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6958
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:38 am

@sroc4 wrote:Looks like there may be some snow showers around for many Wednesday morning

Yea came here to say the same! Nice little squalls possible for the entire area

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20049
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:16 am

Looks to be even some snow showers to our west this morning in PA. One looks like it could even reach NW NJ briefly if it doesn't die out first.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3681
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:30 am

Snow showers today.  Second day in a row.  Tomorrow could actually produce some measurable snow in some areas. C-1" tomorrow seems possible as guidance continues to hit on that idea.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by essexcountypete Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:02 pm

Flakes flying in Bloomfield. Temp 41.

Weeeeeeee!
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 589
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Grselig likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum