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January 2021 Observations and Discussion

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SENJsnowman
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GreyBeard
weatherwatchermom
billg315
Frank_Wx
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heehaw453
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rb924119
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dkodgis
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January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2021 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:58 pm

Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900


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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:00 pm

amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:06 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

True but their presentation of this looks like we are on fire for January. Where's SYO for this map?? Anyone? (JK here peeps)

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:28 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

I wish this was it worked haha

This based on a tercile system, where chances (per climatology) are 33.3% of above average, near average, and below average (think of a bell curve, where the statistical peak of the curve would be centered in the middle of the chunk of the 33.3% that’s “near average” if the three categories were placed side by side horizontally on a line. What this graphic is saying, is that the bell curve is shifted 50% to the warm side, or in terms of absolute probabilities, 50% chance of near to above average (1.5x33.3%), and then 16.7% (near normal) + 16.7% (below average), 33.3% chance of near to below average (off slightly due to rounding), and then 16.7% chance of being solidly below average.

At least I think that’s how it works haha hopefully it makes sense, though. Paging @Math23x7 for any insight here lol

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:06 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:Is Al Gore in charge of this map??

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 EqrSqi_XEAAI3Li?format=jpg&name=900x900



haha well, 50% probability of above average temps also means a 50% of not! geek

I wish this was it worked haha

This based on a tercile system, where chances (per climatology) are 33.3% of above average, near average, and below average (think of a bell curve, where the statistical peak of the curve would be centered in the middle of the chunk of the 33.3% that’s “near average” if the three categories were placed side by side horizontally on a line. What this graphic is saying, is that the bell curve is shifted 50% to the warm side, or in terms of absolute probabilities, 50% chance of near to above average (1.5x33.3%), and then 16.7% (near normal) + 16.7% (below average), 33.3% chance of near to below average (off slightly due to rounding), and then 16.7% chance of being solidly below average.

At least I think that’s how it works haha hopefully it makes sense, though. Paging @Math23x7 for any insight here lol

haha yeah, knew it wasn't that simple, just trying to add a little optimism here jocolor

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:22 pm

Oo, my bad Dunnz Sad

But this does demonstrate some of the issues that I’ve previously highlighted regarding the functionality/effectiveness of the blocking that’s going to develop in the Atlantic domains.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:41 pm

Just rain here now, at 34*

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:44 pm

Euro for Sun/Mon - a period that was to be a torch 5/6 days ago - LOL!

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype-1609524000-1609686000-1609761600-40

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:26 pm

Started a thread for Sunday's storm

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:43 pm

Some snow showers Manana  for our NW posters here = coating to maybe .5"
GFS dos better with the Northern Stream Vorts I have found over the years - right? wrong?

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype-1609761600-1609826400-1609869600-40

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 1609912800-bjUSf07aq14

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:49 pm

43* and Cloudy here. I'd love to get in on some of those snow showers tomorrow. Sign me up.
Definitely keeping an eye on next Monday as well.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:02 pm

We had nothing but rain yesterday night. Hoping one of these upcoming systems plays out, I would prefer the 11/12th storm personally.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:22 am

So close - the rogue vort is gone but too late. Block is too far south to allow this to come up the coast into our region but maybe get into N Va

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 F3E543B6-3F69-4A74-921D-FADD7003E055.png.fbf5322dccedf7d95a9614d54bd06c6b

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:47 pm

This is a picture of a town well away from the coast in Newfoundland, CA.  Let me check, oh yes it's definitely well into January now and there is not a trace of snow OTG.

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nfl10

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Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:55 am

Flurrying.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:26 pm

36* Cloudy. Radar showed a rogue snow shower coming through here early this afternoon and figured I'd see some flurries, but it never seemed to materialize at the surface level so just virga I guess.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:28 am

Happy Sunday! 28 for the low this morning.
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:28 pm

January 2021 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 2_feet10

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:48 am

LOL, Greybeard.The only thing I would add is have those two feet on their sides so they "fell".

Cloudy and cold.Still have some snow on shadier areas of the property.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:42 am

Cloudy and chilly here at 36*

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:40 pm

Couple of snow showers today. Surface @ 38.5, but 850's at -7 C. Very cold air aloft...

More snow showers are possible as a strong cold front moves through on Wednesday morning/afternoon.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:43 pm

Snow shower, moderate.Nice to see some snow again.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:53 pm

Looks like there may be some snow showers around for many Wednesday morning

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:38 am

sroc4 wrote:Looks like there may be some snow showers around for many Wednesday morning

Yea came here to say the same! Nice little squalls possible for the entire area

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:16 am

Looks to be even some snow showers to our west this morning in PA. One looks like it could even reach NW NJ briefly if it doesn't die out first.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:30 am

Snow showers today.  Second day in a row.  Tomorrow could actually produce some measurable snow in some areas. C-1" tomorrow seems possible as guidance continues to hit on that idea.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by essexcountypete Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:02 pm

Flakes flying in Bloomfield. Temp 41.

Weeeeeeee!
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