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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:57 pm

Changing to Godzilla storm more is a great responsibility not to be taken lightly. Any jinx associated therein must be lived with forever. I do not envy our fearless leader.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:00 pm

So Frank said it will likely be a godzilla wheres our monster banner, or are we waiting till tomorrow to be sure? I think we are pretty sure though.
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Post by lglickman1 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:01 pm

NWS still showing lower amounts than what more recent models are suggesting, maybe they are waiting for tonight's model runs?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:04 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:NWS still showing lower amounts than what more recent models are suggesting, maybe they are waiting for tonight's model runs?
they always err on the cautious side. I expect tomorrow amounts will be increased, but who knows.
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Post by larryrock72 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:08 pm

This is gonna be an epic storm for 90% of our members here. It's been a rough couple of winters. Your patience has paid off and you finally get the big storm you have been waiting for. I'm down here in southern ocean county east of the parkway and 1/2 mile from the bay. This storm will be an uphill battle for us coasties. (Usually is). It's part of the game. We are very close to being in the game but I feel temp wise it will be too much to overcome. Snow is expected to start falling here 2-4pm hopefully we can squeeze of a quick 2-3" before the changeover around 10 or 11pm. I feel anything west of the GSP. (Manchester twsp, Whiting, Lakewood, Jackson twsp). Will hold those temperature longer and should do well. Monmouth county seems to always seems to fair well In these storms. (Manalapan, Freehold) due to latitude. I do believe a good part of the garden state goes to Blizzard warnings. Can't wait to see everyones photo from your backyard in the next couple of days. SENJsnowman, if we stayed all snow for this one we would be in the blizzard criteria. Good luck everyone.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:11 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Changing to Godzilla storm more is a great responsibility not to be taken lightly. Any jinx associated therein must be lived with forever. I do not envy our fearless leader.

@amugs texted me and said he will never forgive me if I went into Godzilla mode and we lost the storm.

But....... bounce bounce bounce bounce

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:13 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Changing to Godzilla storm more is a great responsibility not to be taken lightly. Any jinx associated therein must be lived with forever. I do not envy our fearless leader.

@amugs texted me and said he will never forgive me if I went into Godzilla mode and we lost the storm.

But....... bounce bounce bounce bounce

The things we weenies do out of superstition ahaha classic!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:16 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Frank what do you think half of the area will go to blizzard warnings

If Upton pulls the trigger it will be tomorrow morning or early afternoon

@Grselig wrote:The big question, when will you declare this a Zilla and make it official? Very Happy Very Happy

@amugs @sroc and @dunnzoo said to stand down or they’ll quit

@mmanisca wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO closely resembles my first forecast, but believes I should expand the yellow more S-SE. We'll see! Temps scare me a bit there. But holy capocollo! What a run

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf-deterministic-ma-total_snow_10to1-1612029600-1612108800-1612306800-40.gif.1b88c032998d4a0728bc19c85202b092

Man those 850s Late Monday night into Tuesday over Long Island are not good at all....

850mb temps?

@heehaw453 wrote:Nice!  Go big or go home!  

Now we need one from you, Scott and Ray. Thanks in advance!

@Rooster89 wrote:What does that guys tweet mean?

We’re all going to get *******

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Post by Grselig Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:17 pm

Reasonable.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:18 pm

@larryrock72 wrote:This is gonna be an epic storm for 90% of our members here. It's been a rough couple of winters. Your patience has paid off and you finally get the big storm you have been waiting for. I'm down here in southern ocean county east of the parkway and 1/2 mile from the bay. This storm will be an uphill battle for us coasties. (Usually is). It's part of the game. We are very close to being in the game but I feel temp wise it will be too much to overcome. Snow is expected to start falling here 2-4pm hopefully we can squeeze of a quick 2-3" before the changeover around 10 or 11pm. I feel anything west of the GSP. (Manchester twsp, Whiting, Lakewood, Jackson twsp). Will hold those temperature longer and should do well. Monmouth county seems to always seems to fair well In these storms. (Manalapan, Freehold) due to latitude. I do believe a good part of the garden state goes to Blizzard warnings. Can't wait to see everyones photo from your backyard in the next couple of days. SENJsnowman, if we stayed all snow for this one we would be in the blizzard criteria. Good luck everyone.

@senjsnowman was looking for you in the other thread. You guys should still make out ok, especially if the overrunning trends stronger which it normally tends to do

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Post by Snownyc Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:18 pm

Twc nyc has Brooklyn about 21 inches at the moment on there yo and down chart

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:20 pm

“They said to stand down or they’ll quit”. Literally lmao right now. Too freakin’ funny. That’s great, oh man, that’s hilarious ahaha

@Frank_Wx you’re really twisting my arm here, buddy, but I already said I won’t be releasing because I don’t have the time :’(

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Post by mmanisca Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:Frank what do you think half of the area will go to blizzard warnings

If Upton pulls the trigger it will be tomorrow morning or early afternoon

@Grselig wrote:The big question, when will you declare this a Zilla and make it official? Very Happy Very Happy

@amugs @sroc and @dunnzoo said to stand down or they’ll quit

@mmanisca wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO closely resembles my first forecast, but believes I should expand the yellow more S-SE. We'll see! Temps scare me a bit there. But holy capocollo! What a run

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf-deterministic-ma-total_snow_10to1-1612029600-1612108800-1612306800-40.gif.1b88c032998d4a0728bc19c85202b092

Man those 850s Late Monday night into Tuesday over Long Island are not good at all....

850mb temps?

@heehaw453 wrote:Nice!  Go big or go home!  

Now we need one from you, Scott and Ray. Thanks in advance!

@Rooster89 wrote:What does that guys tweet mean?

We’re all going to get *******

Yes 850 mb temps going to +2.
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Post by Rooster89 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:23 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@Rooster89 wrote:What does that guys tweet mean?

@Rooster89 do you mean the Zilla reference? Between 12-23 inches Frank changes the banner to Godzilla mode. I think above 23 its a Roidzilla. Just fun stuff

Lol sorry not that. The John Homemuk tweet.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:23 pm

Madonna mia

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png.bd1044caeb9e34fa97baf26c66066d20

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:24 pm

@rb924119 wrote:“They said to stand down or they’ll quit”. Literally lmao right now. Too freakin’ funny. That’s great, oh man, that’s hilarious ahaha

@Frank_Wx you’re really twisting my arm here, buddy, but I already said I won’t be releasing because I don’t have the time :’(

All good! I obviously try to encourage as many different viewpoints as possible

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Madonna mia

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png.bd1044caeb9e34fa97baf26c66066d20
Jeeze, do these mix to the ground? with the east to west flow does that change the way winds work? usually this as u said is a different shape, i know 70kts isnt mixing down but thats what 80mph? so 55-60 i would think could be possible. Thats nuts they need to make more wind headlines IMO if thats something that might verify. #1 takeaway no one should be out on monday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:28 pm

@mmanisca wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:Frank what do you think half of the area will go to blizzard warnings

If Upton pulls the trigger it will be tomorrow morning or early afternoon

@Grselig wrote:The big question, when will you declare this a Zilla and make it official? Very Happy Very Happy

@amugs @sroc and @dunnzoo said to stand down or they’ll quit

@mmanisca wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO closely resembles my first forecast, but believes I should expand the yellow more S-SE. We'll see! Temps scare me a bit there. But holy capocollo! What a run

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf-deterministic-ma-total_snow_10to1-1612029600-1612108800-1612306800-40.gif.1b88c032998d4a0728bc19c85202b092

Man those 850s Late Monday night into Tuesday over Long Island are not good at all....

850mb temps?

@heehaw453 wrote:Nice!  Go big or go home!  

Now we need one from you, Scott and Ray. Thanks in advance!

@Rooster89 wrote:What does that guys tweet mean?

We’re all going to get *******

Yes 850 mb temps going to +2.

Check out the time stamp though. 7am Tuesday

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf_T850_neus_4

By then damage is done. As larry just said, living near the ocean for a snow lover comes with trade offs. You will see some of the heaviest snow rates and accumulation, even with a changeover or dry slot! Also, 00z suites tonight may show something else. Big model runs tonight.

Things I’m looking for are in the NAM and short res models. Hopefully they catch on


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:29 pm

FYI Frank the click to see my first call shows the other snow map not yours.
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Post by Snownyc Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:29 pm

I frank do you think this storm can do more than what it say leaning toward 2ft amounts or more. Do you think this storm has that potential in the nyc area because they always say you have to smell the rain to get the good snows in these storms

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Madonna mia

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png.bd1044caeb9e34fa97baf26c66066d20
Jeeze, do these mix to the ground? with the east to west flow does that change the way winds work? usually this as u said is a different shape, i know 70kts isnt mixing down but thats what 80mph? so 55-60 i would think could be possible. Thats nuts they need to make more wind headlines IMO if thats something that might verify. #1 takeaway no one should be out on monday.

I don't know about those winds mixing down, but under that strong flow is where you'll see some pretty impressive snow rates, so look out if you're under that.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:32 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Madonna mia

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png.bd1044caeb9e34fa97baf26c66066d20
Jeeze, do these mix to the ground? with the east to west flow does that change the way winds work? usually this as u said is a different shape, i know 70kts isnt mixing down but thats what 80mph? so 55-60 i would think could be possible. Thats nuts they need to make more wind headlines IMO if thats something that might verify. #1 takeaway no one should be out on monday.

I don't know about those winds mixing down, but under that strong flow is where you'll see some pretty impressive snow rates, so look out if you're under that.
well either way thats impressive.
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Post by GreyBeard Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:35 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Changing to Godzilla storm more is a great responsibility not to be taken lightly. Any jinx associated therein must be lived with forever. I do not envy our fearless leader.

@amugs texted me and said he will never forgive me if I went into Godzilla mode and we lost the storm.

But....... bounce bounce bounce bounce

The things we weenies do out of superstition ahaha classic!




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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:37 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:“They said to stand down or they’ll quit”. Literally lmao right now. Too freakin’ funny. That’s great, oh man, that’s hilarious ahaha

@Frank_Wx you’re really twisting my arm here, buddy, but I already said I won’t be releasing because I don’t have the time :’(

All good! I obviously try to encourage as many different viewpoints as possible

I know you do!! And I’m itching to do one, believe me, but if I was going to sit down and actually do a map that I’d able to say that I did my best with, I’d literally have to pull an all-nighter, especially since I’m still working for the next hour lol ideally, I would have liked to have put a first guess out with my video discussion to help demonstrate my thinking a bit more concretely, but I just didn’t have the time.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:37 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:FYI Frank the click to see my first call shows the other snow map not yours.

Thank you. Fixed

@Snownyc wrote:I frank do you think this storm can do more than what it say leaning toward 2ft amounts or more. Do you think this storm has that potential in the nyc area because they always say you have to smell the rain to get the good snows in these storms

Yes. In fact, Para GFS, GFS and NAM show over 20 inches for several counties. If it happens it will be the areas within my golden zone. This has the makings of a Roidzilla, but I’m going to wait until tomorrow and see what happens with the models

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