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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:36 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:Frank would you say that the Euro, GFS and NAM have the same  basic Synoptiic features?  You have to disregard the QPF outputs on a small scale basis  but I think all the models have the same basic idea now

I don't always have as eagle an eye as Frank for these things, but I'd say yes for the most part. I don't see any big differences in the models in terms of surface low placement, mid and upper level circulation and surface and 850 temps. I mean there are subtle differences, but not huge ones. At least from what I see.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:36 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Holy crap everything covered already!! Road too 26*
acast.awesome hope it's up here soon!! All ready go just gotta do few last things.
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
yes but they won't up the totals till last second. They don't want to freak people out. But I am at grocery store and that has already ensued so it's time to pull the gun. And the blizzard warnings. No it will most def be atea wide 12+ with some insane Godzilla totals in places not known until it's on us. Just gotta track. Now cast.
Agree Jman just frustrates me that if their reasons are to not freak people out is wrong they are pros they should speak the truth but again media has been ridiculous so maybe they are listening to their bosses as Frank mentioned. Hope they get egg on their faces from this storm
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Post by CnWestMilford76 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:40 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
Many pros are calling for much higher amounts. Local TV stations are always last to fall in line. Better pros online calling for much higher amounts. NWS are pros. Sometimes the person telling the weather on TV isn’t even a pro.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:41 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
yes but they won't up the totals till last second. They don't want to freak people out. But I am at grocery store and that has already ensued so it's time to pull the gun. And the blizzard warnings. No it will most def be atea wide 12+ with some insane Godzilla totals in places not known until it's on us. Just gotta track. Now cast.
Agree Jman just frustrates me that if their reasons are to not freak people out is wrong they are pros they should speak the truth but again media has been ridiculous so maybe they are listening to their bosses as Frank mentioned. Hope they get egg on their faces from this storm
they could also be waiting on nws if they think they ate go up things. News also tends to lag by as much as 6 hrs behind.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:42 pm

@CnWestMilford76 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
Many pros are calling for much higher amounts. Local TV stations are always last to fall in line. Better pros online calling for much higher amounts. NWS are pros. Sometimes the person telling the weather on TV isn’t even a pro.
yep most are reporters for the Mets.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 24 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by WeatherBob Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:42 pm

I think Frank will come out with his new snow map right before we hit the 30 page limit!
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Post by Scullybutcher Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:42 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
yes but they won't up the totals till last second. They don't want to freak people out. But I am at grocery store and that has already ensued so it's time to pull the gun. And the blizzard warnings. No it will most def be atea wide 12+ with some insane Godzilla totals in places not known until it's on us. Just gotta track. Now cast.
Agree Jman just frustrates me that if their reasons are to not freak people out is wrong they are pros they should speak the truth but again media has been ridiculous so maybe they are listening to their bosses as Frank mentioned. Hope they get egg on their faces from this storm


As long as they are letting people know 12” is expected, it’s fine. Once you get over a 12” what’s the difference. I’ve gotten 2 experience 34” in 2013, took an extra hour to clear the driveway.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:42 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
yes but they won't up the totals till last second. They don't want to freak people out. But I am at grocery store and that has already ensued so it's time to pull the gun. And the blizzard warnings. No it will most def be atea wide 12+ with some insane Godzilla totals in places not known until it's on us. Just gotta track. Now cast.
Agree Jman just frustrates me that if their reasons are to not freak people out is wrong they are pros they should speak the truth but again media has been ridiculous so maybe they are listening to their bosses as Frank mentioned. Hope they get egg on their faces from this storm
I'm not sure why the TV forecasters, at least in this market, have been so conservative in their projections and won't ascribe any motives. Maybe that's just the way they see it. But the National Weather Service, who I think are the gold standard for pro mets, have been pretty bullish in their numbers. They have me at 16-22" in my Winter Storm Warning, which seems in line with most of what I'm seeing here.
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:46 pm

NWS at 1;30 update.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast generally on track. Only change is to update
temperatures which had to be dropped a few degrees across the
board.
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:47 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
yes but they won't up the totals till last second. They don't want to freak people out. But I am at grocery store and that has already ensued so it's time to pull the gun. And the blizzard warnings. No it will most def be atea wide 12+ with some insane Godzilla totals in places not known until it's on us. Just gotta track. Now cast.
Agree Jman just frustrates me that if their reasons are to not freak people out is wrong they are pros they should speak the truth but again media has been ridiculous so maybe they are listening to their bosses as Frank mentioned. Hope they get egg on their faces from this storm
I'm not sure why the TV forecasters, at least in this market, have been so conservative in their projections and won't ascribe any motives. Maybe that's just the way they see it. But the National Weather Service, who I think are the gold standard for pro mets, have been pretty bullish in their numbers. They have me at 16-22" in my Winter Storm Warning, which seems in line with most of what I'm seeing here.
I understand what your saying but for example guy at work I’ve been telling him about what info I’m getting from you guys here but he thinks we are all crazy because he listens tv Mets and believes that they are always correct and we are crazy lol
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:48 pm

Just a beautiful light snowfall out my window right now. Light fluffy flakes, coating the ground. Nice start to what could be a fun 24-36 hours. Really hope the intense bands come in the afternoon tomorrow so I can see the heavier snow in daylight.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:49 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@billg315 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
yes but they won't up the totals till last second. They don't want to freak people out. But I am at grocery store and that has already ensued so it's time to pull the gun. And the blizzard warnings. No it will most def be atea wide 12+ with some insane Godzilla totals in places not known until it's on us. Just gotta track. Now cast.
Agree Jman just frustrates me that if their reasons are to not freak people out is wrong they are pros they should speak the truth but again media has been ridiculous so maybe they are listening to their bosses as Frank mentioned. Hope they get egg on their faces from this storm
I'm not sure why the TV forecasters, at least in this market, have been so conservative in their projections and won't ascribe any motives. Maybe that's just the way they see it. But the National Weather Service, who I think are the gold standard for pro mets, have been pretty bullish in their numbers. They have me at 16-22" in my Winter Storm Warning, which seems in line with most of what I'm seeing here.
I understand what your saying but for example guy at work I’ve been telling him about what info I’m getting from you guys here but he thinks we are all crazy because he listens tv Mets and believes that they are always correct and we are crazy lol
LOL. Well I may actually be a bit crazy. Not sure. haha. But I have a lot of views on the media these days, that I won't share now, not the time or place, but I'll just say to your co-worker, they definitely aren't always right.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:57 pm

I am so nervous LOL three minutes for Frank’s new snowmap

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Post by Nyi1058 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:58 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I am so nervous LOL three minutes for Frank’s new snowmap
It might be longer than three minutes Razz

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Post by mmanisca Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:58 pm

@CnWestMilford76 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
Many pros are calling for much higher amounts. Local TV stations are always last to fall in line. Better pros online calling for much higher amounts. NWS are pros. Sometimes the person telling the weather on TV isn’t even a pro.



Craig Allen! One of the best for the metro area!!
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:08 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Holy crap everything covered already!! Road too 26*

26 snowflakes doesn't seem like a lot, or did you mean 26°? j/k wwmom

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Post by Irish Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:09 pm

@Irish wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO QPF

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 24 Image.png.077b6e7c0a341c77f3c7f0c6e55e0aa4

I like that 2.31 literally on my house!  So let me get this right. QPF number that either 10 or 12 for a range of overall snowfall?  Yes?  So about 23-28 inches?  Just confirming what QPF means/ is?

Was my QPF understanding based on this map correct?

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Post by mmanisca Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:09 pm

Bernie just threw in the towel. 12 inches and he can see even 18 even into parts of Long Island..LOL
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:12 pm

@Irish wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO QPF

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 24 Image.png.077b6e7c0a341c77f3c7f0c6e55e0aa4

I like that 2.31 literally on my house!  So let me get this right. QPF number that either 10 or 12 for a range of overall snowfall?  Yes?  So about 23-28 inches?  Just confirming what QPF means/ is?

Was my QPF understanding based on this map correct?

Generally speaking yes. That is liquid equivalent precipitation amounts. Snow ratios (as you say 10:1 or 12:1) would determine how that translates to snow amounts. So yes in a storm like this the qpf time 10 or 12 would be a good rough estimate. Of course qpf maps can be a bit imprecise on location so use with caution.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:50 pm

SE shift of 700mb good news for Coastal NJ and LI
February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 24 A1DBEE63-47D3-4593-A00F-5C338AE849A2.png.47b63d67bc3597ab23e7c938709282cc

_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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