February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
I haven't been able to check in the last week.
Anything going on I should know about?
Anything going on I should know about?
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
SREFs now rain/mix all the way up to I-78. Interestinggggg. Very different results between NAM and SREFs.
Last edited by rb924119 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:11 am; edited 1 time in total
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
My god rgem, 2 ft IMBY!! Frank good call on NNJ LHV for the jackpot!! Looks that may be the case, GFS and NAM keep me around 16 but either way you cut it I don't see this being less than a high end Godzilla for most but we MIGHT have to unleash the lightning beast hmm?!
Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:11 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
So after a quick review of the 6z runs the models seem to be largely in agreement (big picture) on location of the surface low, and general snowfall amounts. Even the NAM has ditched the snow hole it was showing for some West and NW folks, particularly in PA though still doesn't bring the snow too far north into NY state).
Looks like the H5 is maybe a little SW of the area on a couple models? Heehaw, was that your read on the H5 and what, if anything do you make of that?
Looks like the H5 is maybe a little SW of the area on a couple models? Heehaw, was that your read on the H5 and what, if anything do you make of that?
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
go away little man lol, you and your srefs can go to FL for some rain lol totally kidding, it doesnt line up with other models some do bring rain at the end but frank has said over and over he doesnt see much if at all rain coming into play.rb924119 wrote:SREFs now rain/mix all the way up to I-80. Interestinggggg. Very different results between NAM and SREFs.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:12 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
WSW hoisted for upton !! Other Frank check out the end!
NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-176-178-312045-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.210201T0500Z-210202T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.210201T0000Z-210202T1100Z/
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
344 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 14 to
18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.
* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard like conditions possible Monday
and Monday evening.
NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-176-178-312045-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.210201T0500Z-210202T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.210201T0000Z-210202T1100Z/
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
344 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 14 to
18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.
* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard like conditions possible Monday
and Monday evening.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Snownyc wrote:I’m trying to ask can this be the biggest storm in about 15 years in the nyc metro area.moleson wrote:Snownyc wrote:Do this have the potential to be a classic storm if temps can stay maybe not a one day total but this could be some kids let’s say unfair 15 years old biggest storm in the nyc metro area
What language is this?
Jan 23, 2016.....27.5”.....NYC largest snowstorm
Last edited by lja on Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:17 am; edited 2 times in total
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
After reviewing the 6z runs I think my initial snowfall map will change less than I thought. The major change will be expanding the heavy snow zone further west and slightly re-orienting the precip zones to account for the initial over-running event and a more stout CCB, which as Frank (of course) got right on his map creates a more west to east banding except along the NJ coast where temps change the snow totals. I will bump up totals, but not to the crazy levels we're seeing on some models. I think a modest increase in my initial totals is consistent with this storm setup and I've seen the models over-do snow totals enough to be skeptical. Some people WILL jackpot and get some pretty crazy totals, but most people will get more "normal" heavy snow totals. The snow at the end of this storm will be pretty light as it drifts away so I don't think the last several hours this hangs on will add much to the totals we see from this evening through early Tuesday AM.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
So it will be adry snow? I heard it would be wet hence the potential for power outages, if its light that bodes well for that and shoveling. Drifts could push 4-6 ft in some of these heavier totals!!billg315 wrote:After reviewing the 6z runs I think my initial snowfall map will change less than I thought. The major change will be expanding the heavy snow zone further west and slightly re-orienting the precip zones to account for the initial over-running event and a more stout CCB, which as Frank (of course) got right on his map creates a more west to east banding except along the NJ coast where temps change the snow totals. I will bump up totals, but not to the crazy levels we're seeing on some models. I think a modest increase in my initial totals is consistent with this storm setup and I've seen the models over-do snow totals enough to be skeptical. Some people WILL jackpot and get some pretty crazy totals, but most people will get more "normal" heavy snow totals. The snow at the end of this storm will be pretty light as it drifts away so I don't think the last several hours this hangs on will add much to the totals we see from this evening through early Tuesday AM.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
The rgem continued that NW to WNW movement of the heaviest snows now as seen above to NNJ LHV and just around NYC. Originally placed in lower PA a day or so ago!!
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
rb924119 wrote:SREFs now rain/mix all the way up to I-78. Interestinggggg. Very different results between NAM and SREFs.
The NAM actually does show a fair amount of sleet/mix across much of SNJ. SREF's reflect that warm air intrusion and take it a bit further north. That is the outlier on that front right now, but I noticed. And I noticed because it actually is not at all inconsistent with this type of coastal tucked in. In fact, I'd say it would be MORE unusual if there wasn't significant mixing from I-195 south and east of 206 in South Jersey than if it remained all snow almost to the coast. This is why I'm not thinking I'm changing my map a great deal in SNJ.
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Take a breath jman. Sounds like you are hyperventilating already. It's gonna be a long day.lol
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32 wrote:So it will be adry snow? I heard it would be wet hence the potential for power outages, if its light that bodes well for that and shoveling. Drifts could push 4-6 ft in some of these heavier totals!!billg315 wrote:After reviewing the 6z runs I think my initial snowfall map will change less than I thought. The major change will be expanding the heavy snow zone further west and slightly re-orienting the precip zones to account for the initial over-running event and a more stout CCB, which as Frank (of course) got right on his map creates a more west to east banding except along the NJ coast where temps change the snow totals. I will bump up totals, but not to the crazy levels we're seeing on some models. I think a modest increase in my initial totals is consistent with this storm setup and I've seen the models over-do snow totals enough to be skeptical. Some people WILL jackpot and get some pretty crazy totals, but most people will get more "normal" heavy snow totals. The snow at the end of this storm will be pretty light as it drifts away so I don't think the last several hours this hangs on will add much to the totals we see from this evening through early Tuesday AM.
When I say light, I mean in intensity not weight/moisture. That last few hours of snow you see on the models is likely not much more than lingering flurries/light snow. I think the accumulation is mostly said and done by daybreak Tuesday.
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
lol, nah just love seeing the consistency in the models continue, they always have the potential to shift. so far any shifts have been in favor of at least parts of this board but like 90% or more appear to be in godzilla snows.GreyBeard wrote:Take a breath jman. Sounds like you are hyperventilating already. It's gonna be a long day.lol
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Yeah we all look good for this one, mostly. Bright red sky at sunrise this morning hopeful that is a harbinger of things to come.
Last edited by GreyBeard on Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:28 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
rb, any input on the H5 placement in some of the 6z runs? It seemed a little more west to me? Or are my eyes going after staring at models and vorticity maps for three days?
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Frank always has stated these tend to track a tick S and E on game day, wonder if he still feels that way here.
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
I believe the Banner is incorrect? Should it not say in part "FrankRoidzilla over parts of Long Island" instead of blizzard conditions? Truth be told now...
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Sroc and Ainnone- wake up boys! I still think we get hammered here, 12-18 seems legit.
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
models arent showing those totals for LI atm, everything has shifted to NNJ NYC LHV, but LI is def in godzilla. Roidzilla is 24+ and Frankzilla unlikely but i guess not impossible 36+. AND I think inside Franks circled area on his map will be blizzard warnings, but that doesnt change snow amounts that all has to do with the wind and whiteout conditions as you probably know, its gonna be one heck of a storm, i was gonna do a full grocery shop today (just regular scheduled) but with the winds progged I would hate to lose all that food so prolly gonna go with mainly non perisables and try to eat our fish and shrimp we have tonight, not sure what to do with my 15 chicken filets loldkodgis wrote:I believe the Banner is incorrect? Should it not say in part "FrankRoidzilla over parts of Long Island" instead of blizzard conditions? Truth be told now...
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
I still can’t believe Amy freeze still has wide area of 6 to 12 of snow and 12 to 18 just west of the city when the hell is she going to update there map
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
What time does the 6z Euro run and does anybody have the maps?
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
GreyBeard wrote:Yeah we all look good for this one, mostly. Bright red sky at sunrise this morning hopeful that is a harbinger of things to come.
"Red sky at morning, sailor take warning"! Amazing how these old timey words of wisdom always prove out!
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
frank 638 wrote:I still can’t believe Amy freeze still has wide area of 6 to 12 of snow and 12 to 18 just west of the city when the hell is she going to update there map
Frank.they are always late to the party.
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Upton disco mentions blizzard warning upgrade possible for NYC LI and SECT
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Aside from south jersey coast and parts of long Island, is there any concern for mixing?
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Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
We are only in a WSW here in Manorville, NY. Silly. 3-11 inches, quite the range by TWC.
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