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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by WeatherBob Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:02 pm

Frank, can you put the euro 500 mb map at 00z?
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Post by Gator99 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:03 pm

I remember the 96 storm.  I was living in midtown and had to walk to my office on 23rd in the morning.  Lexington Avenue had not been plowed and there was literally two feet of snow.  It was a mess for days afterward.  The melting snow caused street corners to become lakes, which froze and it was treacherous walking.  There was actually one worse than that around 1993.  The snow wasn't as bad, but it was during a sanitation department strike, so garbage was not being collected.  The Manhattan sidewalks became narrow alleys of ankle deep disgusting muck.  Memories...

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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:03 pm

This run crushes Long Island. If this holds true, do we even mix??

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:06 pm

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Image.png.33c8a14df4bbcb6e4cebb374716b3577

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Post by mwilli Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:06 pm

someone said CP 30" if that means central park Dibasio better say all schools closed...

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
is this good news for my area? Bringing it a bit further south? Do you still think amounts are right on SR models or just placement? I'm guessing a shift we means NYC is in heart of it. You know it. That's why my avatar is a actual weather weenie lol. Thpugh I wanna change it. To what do you vote?
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
I hate to ask is that good news or bad news

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:08 pm

Not in the best place but close enough. I still think I see more than 12 to 14 as shown by euro but who knows. It's go be a now cast.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:08 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:Frank, can you put the euro 500 mb map at 00z?

Here is 12z valid for 18z with a trend to show difference vs prior run. Heights along the coast notably lower

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 319998247_ezgif.com-gif-maker(10).gif.1474804548d7f06c99080deccbc41a2a

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:09 pm

@frank 638 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
I hate to ask is that good news or bad news
cuts us out of 18 inches but imo there's def hope. Euro isn't end all be all.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:12 pm

@frank 638 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
I hate to ask is that good news or bad news

Everything is relative to where you live. Good news in the sense it matches my thoughts on where the storm will ultimately track. I don't think there is any bad news. We're all getting a Godzilla. I don't think anyone outside of members down in south Jersey and extreme eastern LI.

@jmanley32 wrote:Not in the best place but close enough. I still think I see more than 12 to 14 as shown by euro but who knows. It's go be a now cast.

Not in best place? HUH??? You are jackpot chasing. Also, just because the EURO has the right track doesn't mean it's correct with its depiction of the precip. It may be underdone with QPF.

@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
I hate to ask is that good news or bad news
cuts us out of 18 inches but imo there's def hope. Euro isn't end all be all.

This is incorrect.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
I hate to ask is that good news or bad news
cuts us out of 18 inches but imo there's def hope. Euro isn't end all be all.
ok what about mixing

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:13 pm

EURO QPF

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Image.png.077b6e7c0a341c77f3c7f0c6e55e0aa4

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:16 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
I hate to ask is that good news or bad news

Everything is relative to where you live. Good news in the sense it matches my thoughts on where the storm will ultimately track. I don't think there is any bad news. We're all getting a Godzilla. I don't think anyone outside of members down in south Jersey and extreme eastern LI.

@jmanley32 wrote:Not in the best place but close enough. I still think I see more than 12 to 14 as shown by euro but who knows. It's go be a now cast.

Not in best place? HUH??? You are jackpot chasing. Also, just because the EURO has the right track doesn't mean it's correct with its depiction of the precip. It may be underdone with QPF.

@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Significant shift SE on the EURO, and much more in line with my overall thoughts.
I hate to ask is that good news or bad news
cuts us out of 18 inches but imo there's def hope. Euro isn't end all be all.

This is incorrect.
well smack me up Frank lol. To me it says on euro 12 closest to me but ur right qpf isn't your point. My bad and I knew that spoke put of haste. I'll try not do that next 48 hrs lol
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:17 pm

3K

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Image.png.c0ec9e3cb2a83fc2c49b3b0e71e108fb.png.e8639208b04d2a5218ca6e975c45b22d

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:20 pm

Nobody get too crazy with the models at this point. The snow is already falling, wheels are in motion. Wait for Frank's final call map at 2 p.m. and then it is time to start watching the radar and the real-time observations to see how the storm is developing in real-time. Ultimately that's when you'll know where the jackpot is, and not a minute sooner. lol.
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Post by Irish Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO QPF

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Image.png.077b6e7c0a341c77f3c7f0c6e55e0aa4

I like that 2.31 literally on my house!  So let me get this right. QPF number that either 10 or 12 for a range of overall snowfall?  Yes?  So about 23-28 inches? Just confirming what QPF means/ is?

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:21 pm

I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
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Post by Zhukov1945 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:22 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO QPF

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 23 Image.png.077b6e7c0a341c77f3c7f0c6e55e0aa4

I think I will have died and gone to heaven if this verifies. Hunterdon County gets the W...
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
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Post by WeatherBob Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:27 pm

Frank would you say that the Euro, GFS and NAM have the same basic Synoptiic features? You have to disregard the QPF outputs on a small scale basis but I think all the models have the same basic idea now
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:28 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 18 last I checked. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:33 pm

Holy crap everything covered already!! Road too 26*
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Artechmetals wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I will day this it's freaking cold. Do you Frank think this cold holds with the dynamics and in response ratios ate higher or will it still warm up. According to car it's 25 but I always shave about 2 degrees off so bout 23. That would set allow for increased ratios.
Jman you probably end up with 8-12 like the pro Mets are forecasting
doubt it lol I know u jabbing me. Nws has me at 14 to 28. Not going by the news. They are way off. For entire area. Nws is pretty spot on as is TWC!! I am concerned about one thing for real. Yonkers has done 0 to prep the roads I've seen no plows. I know been budget cuts but we cannot afford a November what 2018 2019?
Jman not jabbing my friend, just seems it’s all a Roller coaster ride but just being cautious and trying to understand why these pros are so low with their totals ? Don’t they study models like all the great people on this forum who know what they are seeing ?
yes but they won't up the totals till last second. They don't want to freak people out. But I am at grocery store and that has already ensued so it's time to pull the gun. And the blizzard warnings. No it will most def be atea wide 12+ with some insane Godzilla totals in places not known until it's on us. Just gotta track. Now cast.
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