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February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:52 pm

Issued 1pm
February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 29 Mcd00510


Last edited by aiannone on Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:53 pm

1:30 Upton Update

000
FXUS61 KOKX 011828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm underway for the Tri-State Region today.
The storm will continue into tonight, with lingering effects
lasting into Tuesday night. Drier weather is then expected
midweek before another low pressure/frontal system approaches
for the end of the week and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An initial band of heavier precipitation was moving on shore of
Long Island with a secondary band just to the south. These bands
are in association of deep layered lift of Gulf of Mexico and
Atlantic moisture, enhanced by a strengthening 50-70kt easterly
low-level jet. The bands track north and northwest through the
remainder of the Tri-State this afternoon into evening,
along/ahead of the NW pivoting 700-850 trough axis. Snowfall
rates of 2-3"/hr are possible with this band, with potential for
even a bit of thundersnow based on -PVU above frontogenetic
zone.
For twin forks, and coastal Long Island, may be looking
at enough boundary layer warming by late afternoon for a
transition to a wintry mix, and then rain, but that would be
after a solid 3/4 to 1" SWE.

Major winter storm underway with deep closed low over the
Appalachians this morning only slowly working towards the coast
today, and then stalling along the northeast and mid Atlantic
coast through Tuesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, slowly
deepening low pressure east of the DelMarVa will only slowly
drift ENE today into tonight thanks to stalling upper forcing,
while an associated occluded front will develop and extend
eastward to a triple point low that will tracking NE off Cape
Cod through tonight. Meanwhile to the north, arctic high
pressure will be slow to retreat over SE Canada through tonight.

With indications of a coastal front developing across W LI and
SE CT, better SLR`s will be to the N&W of it where temps hold in
the 20s through today (across NYC metro, NE NJ, Lower Hud and
SW CT), with an additional 12-16" of snow likely through this
evening. To the SE of this front, for much of LI and SE CT,
SLR`s will be lower as temps hover around or just below
freezing, resulting in an additional 6 to 14" of heavy and wet
snow, lowest amounts for S and E coastal areas.

For coastal areas, winds 20-35 mph with gusts 40-60 mph will help
create near-blizzard to blizzard conditions from roughly mid-morning
into the evening. Strongest winds are expected across E LI and SE
CT, where snow will be heavy and wet reducing blowing and drifting
and consistent blizzard conditions today. This will pose an enhanced
threat for tree damage and power outages due to snow loading.
A moderate threat for blizzard conditions exists for NYC,
coastal NE NJ, coastal Westchester and coastal SW CT this
afternoon into early evening as likely heavy snow banding moves
through with a more powdery snow expected and frequent gusts 35
to 40 mph. With winds gusts being marginally supportive and some
uncertainty on persistence of heavy snow banding for multiple
hours of less than 1/4 mile vsby, have held off on blizzard
warning. Considerable blowing and drifting of snow likely though
for this area and point N&W with periods of whiteout conditions
and difficult to impossible travel today into this evening.

&&
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Post by Dis2cruise Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:53 pm

Long time lurker here...

Fire Island...Foot of snow ( surprised since I’m so close to the ocean) sleeting now. Winds are picking up!

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:54 pm

Boom! 15" here, 3.5" in the last 2 hours. Awesome storm!

_________________
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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Irish Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:56 pm

https://weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/98f864d5067cf4e6156c366b9f4ed13a1950458f051a18d4b8bea2f93b85977e?phenomena=WS&significance=W&areaid=NJZ012&office=KPHI&etn=0001

An additional snow accumulations of 12-18 inches!!

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Post by Zhukov1945 Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:58 pm

Clinton NJ returning to heavy snow, sleet appears to be dying out
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:58 pm

20.2° and 10.5 inches of snow at 1:30

We just got into the real heavy stuff here. The ratios have saved us to this point, but the snow intensity in the last half hour is by far the best of the day.
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