February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part V: Continued Onslaught

0Z NAM GIF of 10PM to 9 PM tomorrow

amugs wrote:3K NAM 0Z wow

i wonder where that 6-7 inches over NYC area comes from, maybe back end banding? If that happens that;ll be sick. Banking on you mugs make it happen!

rb924119 wrote:I will say this, though; my little case study worked very well:

So I'm intrigued by this. is the hypothesis that where the earliest heavy bands setup before the coastal transfer is an indication of favored location atmospherically for the heaviest banding after the secondary forms? Or is that oversimplifying it? I ask only because I want to steal your idea in the future once I understand it.

amugs wrote:0Z NAM GIF of 10PM to 9 PM tomorrow

its still not even done!!

amugs wrote:0Z NAM GIF of 10PM to 9 PM tomorrow

Well if that comes to fruition we have another fun day ahead of us tomorrow. Good thing I got my first wave of shoveling done this afternoon.

snowing lightly again, maybe close to moderately. This is the gift that keeps on giving.

Friday some more snow before changes over

23 inches and I'm done with my last of three snow blowing sessions for the day. Still coming down heavy, I don't see how I won't have 30 inches plus by sometime tomorrow.

Up to 26° and heavy snow.

billg315 wrote:

amugs wrote:0Z NAM GIF of 10PM to 9 PM tomorrow

Well if that comes to fruition we have another fun day ahead of us tomorrow. Good thing I got my first wave of shoveling done this afternoon.

Interesting mugs.

I'm at 23 inches now, my record is 35 inches from the Feb 2010 snowicane, followed by 33 inches from the blizzard of 96. Dare I go for the gold?

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I will say this, though; my little case study worked very well:

So I'm intrigued by this. is the hypothesis that where the earliest heavy bands setup before the coastal transfer is an indication of favored location atmospherically for the heaviest banding after the secondary forms? Or is that oversimplifying it? I ask only because I want to steal your idea in the future once I understand it.

It’s not necessarily where you see the heaviest banding, but where you can spot either tendencies of precipitative regeneration and/or quasi-stationary signatures either on radar or satellite. My hypothesis is that somehow, and I honestly don’t know the answer to this, but somehow in each event of magnitude like this, you can spot features very early on in the developmental process that make it seem like those areas are just preconditioned for precipitative enhancement, regardless of how the setup progresses, and even in ways that don’t necessarily make sense.

I first noticed it with Stella once I was old enough and educated enough to understand everything, and because I forecasted the CRAP out that storm. But there have been several events that have seemingly telegraphed the jackpot zones way before the storm ever even evolved. I’ve been tinkering with the idea ever since when I can devote a lot of time forecasting and observations throughout the whole process.

Local Met said the storm seems to be moving to the West a little which will keep the heavier snow bands over the Eastern PA. and  Western NJ area. Which will keep the heavy snow around until the rush hour tomorrow morning. Could this be possible ?

SNOW MAN wrote:Local Met said the storm seems to be moving to the West a little which will keep the heavier snow bands over the Eastern PA. and  Western NJ area. Which will keep the heavy snow around until the rush hour tomorrow morning. ould this be possible ?

@billg315 case in point lol though I can’t verify this, but it would serve the demonstrative purpose haha

Curious if anyone in this board got any blizzard warnings for their area

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I will say this, though; my little case study worked very well:

So I'm intrigued by this. is the hypothesis that where the earliest heavy bands setup before the coastal transfer is an indication of favored location atmospherically for the heaviest banding after the secondary forms? Or is that oversimplifying it? I ask only because I want to steal your idea in the future once I understand it.

It’s not necessarily where you see the heaviest banding, but where you can spot either tendencies of precipitative regeneration and/or quasi-stationary signatures either on radar or satellite. My hypothesis is that somehow, and I honestly don’t know the answer to this, but somehow in each event of magnitude like this, you can spot features very early on in the developmental process that make it seem like those areas are just preconditioned for precipitative enhancement, regardless of how the setup progresses, and even in ways that don’t necessarily make sense.

I first noticed it with Stella once I was old enough and educated enough to understand everything, and because I forecasted the CRAP out that storm. But there have been several events that have seemingly telegraphed the jackpot zones way before the storm ever even evolved. I’ve been tinkering with the idea ever since when I can devote a lot of time forecasting and observations throughout the whole process.

Interesting. Now I'm going to be watching this in every storm to see how it plays out. lol. This is kind of like the micro version of the more macro theory (rule?) that there are just some storm tracks that once they get locked in for a winter are the favored track. That we know has a lot to do with large scale pattern dynamics which tend to linger seasonally. Wonder if such features exist known or unknown at the micro level in individual storm dynamics to enhance precipitation over those areas. Good food for thought.

Central Jersey, near Flemington, I think the sleet kept the totals down a bit today here.  

elkiehound wrote:Central Jersey, near Flemington, I think the sleet kept the totals down a bit today here.  

Sleet definitely took a chunk out of your totals. I'm just a few miles north of you, but I was just north of that snow/sleet line for most of the morning so I stayed predominately snow until finally going over to all sleet early afternoon. Got 16" here, so fighting off that sleet changeover for a couple extra hours -- with 2-3" per hour rates -- likely accounts for that difference.

GFS for manana LE ...QPF
3-6" more snow tomorrow
NW NJ 6-9"
A low end SECS in a HECS. Is this possible? Anything is nowadays.

Need some rest fks. Recharge the batteries. Night night

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I will say this, though; my little case study worked very well:

So I'm intrigued by this. is the hypothesis that where the earliest heavy bands setup before the coastal transfer is an indication of favored location atmospherically for the heaviest banding after the secondary forms? Or is that oversimplifying it? I ask only because I want to steal your idea in the future once I understand it.

It’s not necessarily where you see the heaviest banding, but where you can spot either tendencies of precipitative regeneration and/or quasi-stationary signatures either on radar or satellite. My hypothesis is that somehow, and I honestly don’t know the answer to this, but somehow in each event of magnitude like this, you can spot features very early on in the developmental process that make it seem like those areas are just preconditioned for precipitative enhancement, regardless of how the setup progresses, and even in ways that don’t necessarily make sense.

I first noticed it with Stella once I was old enough and educated enough to understand everything, and because I forecasted the CRAP out that storm. But there have been several events that have seemingly telegraphed the jackpot zones way before the storm ever even evolved. I’ve been tinkering with the idea ever since when I can devote a lot of time forecasting and observations throughout the whole process.

Interesting. Now I'm going to be watching this in every storm to see how it plays out. lol. This is kind of like the micro version of the more macro theory (rule?) that there are just some storm tracks that once they get locked in for a winter are the favored track. That we know has a lot to do with large scale pattern dynamics which tend to linger seasonally. Wonder if such features exist known or unknown at the micro level in individual storm dynamics to enhance precipitation over those areas. Good food for thought.

I haven’t noticed it in smaller/lighter events, but in big impact storms I seem to have.

I do think that there are seasonal tendencies on micro and meso scales too, like you mention, but what I referenced and hypothesized above is on a storm to storm basis. Generally, it also falls in line with the seasonal micro/meso scale tendencies, but not always - each storm can buck those tendencies......if that makes sense? Idk, it’s hard to explain lol you have to just “see” it, and then it’s easy to understand haha

1"+/hr snowfall rates here in Albany now

billg315 wrote:

elkiehound wrote:Central Jersey, near Flemington, I think the sleet kept the totals down a bit today here.  

Sleet definitely took a chunk out of your totals. I'm just a few miles north of you, but I was just north of that snow/sleet line for most of the morning so I stayed predominately snow until finally going over to all sleet early afternoon. Got 16" here, so fighting off that sleet changeover for a couple extra hours -- with 2-3" per hour rates -- likely accounts for that difference.

I'm 10 miles north and did slightly better but the overall idea is the same. Central Hunterdon got killed (relatively) by that mystery sleet band

no longer an issue with the green new deal

huge dry slot coming

he says he lives in still water. not sure of elevation there or how a ski resort could be in hazlet if elevation is 33 feet.

Artechmetals wrote:Curious if anyone in this board got any blizzard warnings for their area

nope, no one. the winds were kinda a flop for the criteria.

2004blackwrx wrote:huge dry slot coming

How much did you get so far? Did you win your bet? Still snowing pretty good here.