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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:57 am

FWIW the end of the 12z NAM the northern energy is interacting with the southern branch.

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:58 am

And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:10 am

@billg315 wrote:And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol



Bill I was SOOOOO goiong to find that and include that in the write up, but work dictated I didnt have the time.  But I too was thinking about it when writing about last Thursday's system.  lol! lol!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:26 am

This storm is probably still on the table IMO.  The ST needs to just get out ahead of the NS and phase in to bring it up.  It's like sroc said comes down to timing.  We should know in a day whether this is feasible.  The TPV in the middle of the country will make it bit more thread the needle I think.

12Z Icon has the phase and storm hits the area. IT's been consistently showing this.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:28 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol



Bill I was SOOOOO goiong to find that and include that in the write up, but work dictated I didnt have the time.  But I too was thinking about it when writing about last Thursday's system.  lol! lol!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Yyy10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:29 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol



Bill I was SOOOOO goiong to find that and include that in the write up, but work dictated I didnt have the time.  But I too was thinking about it when writing about last Thursday's system.  lol! lol!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Yyy10

Lmao. Laughing
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:35 am

Here is the ICON...grain of salt:  Using it to show what we want to see

Notice our southern energy(1) is consolitaed as seen by the reds and is out in front of the northern energy(2).  Gives room to raise heights outs out ahead(black arrow) which allows the storm to come up the coast.  We dont want 1 to look like a line of strung out yellows located under or even behind 2 (blue circle, dashed black lines).  

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Icon-a11

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:47 am

@sroc4 wrote:Here is the ICON...grain of salt:  Using it to show what we want to see

Notice our southern energy(1) is consolitaed as seen by the reds and is out in front of the northern energy(2).  Gives room to raise heights outs out ahead(black arrow) which allows the storm to come up the coast.  We dont want 1 to look like a line of strung out yellows located under or even behind 2 (blue circle, dashed black lines).  

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Icon-a11

Yup

Great post

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:12 am

12z GFS holds serve with the northern and southern energy passing like ships in the night. Got a couple more days to see how this all plays out.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Here is the ICON...grain of salt:  Using it to show what we want to see

Notice our southern energy(1) is consolitaed as seen by the reds and is out in front of the northern energy(2).  Gives room to raise heights outs out ahead(black arrow) which allows the storm to come up the coast.  We dont want 1 to look like a line of strung out yellows located under or even behind 2 (blue circle, dashed black lines).  

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Icon-a11


Todays 12z GFS shows what I mentioned above. You can see the main energy isnt very strong as seen by nothing more than yellow, and its for the most part strung out and most importantly its a tad behind our N energy. This steers our weak southern energy harmlessly OTS.


Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Gfs-de22

Here is the wind field for the 500mb GFS 12z. You can see how the Pac jet and the Polar/arctic jet remains seperate (black arrows). Again we need one of or a combo of a few things in order for this to work out

1) stronger more consolidated ball of southern energy (which is doable IMO considering the undermodeling of this this winter as indicated in prev write up)

2) Some form of amplification out west which would give the flow a more meridonial wave pattern (indicated by blue lines) which would allow interactions sooner between the N and S energy. This is less likely IMO due to the strongly -PNA


Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Gfs-de23

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Irish Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:05 pm

Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago. Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:18 pm

12z Euro strings out southern energy and slides out well ahead of the northern energy. No storm to speak of.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:20 pm

@Irish wrote:Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago.  Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

Have not heard that. It does appear the extreme cold Monday and Tuesday next week eased up a bit on the GFS so that may be true but the cold is still there beyond that. In fact the last GFS 12z run has a stretch where after a brief warm-up to the upper 30s ahead of the Wednesday system, the temperature in NJ for almost the entire state doesn't get above freezing from 2/10 through the morning of 2/17.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:23 pm

Great illustrations SROC and I concur - the strong PV is shredding teh storm and the Friday system has to hi tail it out the way for the heights to rise on teh EC for this to gain latitude. WE need the Euro solutions from Monday and yesterday 12Z for this to work but as we know a fair amount time.
The mush are the TV Mets calling for a snowstorm on Sunday, they are the real KOD!! Last storm called for 6-12" we want them to say snow showers or the such and then its game on!!

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:25 pm

@aiannone wrote:12z Euro strings out southern energy and slides out well ahead of the northern energy. No storm to speak of.

Yeah, complete swing and a miss. Just as sroc said above, with the southern energy strung out and no amplification out front it just slides off to the south of us. It never even consolidates enough to form much of a storm to our south.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:43 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@Irish wrote:Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago.  Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

Have not heard that. It does appear the extreme cold Monday and Tuesday next week eased up a bit on the GFS so that may be true but the cold is still there beyond that. In fact the last GFS 12z run has a stretch where after a brief warm-up to the upper 30s ahead of the Wednesday system, the temperature in NJ for almost the entire state doesn't get above freezing from 2/10 through the morning of 2/17.

Bite me SE Ridge
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Gfs_t210



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Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:43 pm

12Z EURO FLIZZARD for Super Bowl

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 1612666800-8T4tAuO1fxs

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:53 pm

@amugs wrote:
@billg315 wrote:
@Irish wrote:Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago.  Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

Have not heard that. It does appear the extreme cold Monday and Tuesday next week eased up a bit on the GFS so that may be true but the cold is still there beyond that. In fact the last GFS 12z run has a stretch where after a brief warm-up to the upper 30s ahead of the Wednesday system, the temperature in NJ for almost the entire state doesn't get above freezing from 2/10 through the morning of 2/17.

Bite me SE Ridge
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Gfs_t210



Please be wrong. Just the term SE Ridge turns my blood cold
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:55 pm

CP it seems to be a day or two of Normal temps but we'll see how things evolve.

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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:59 pm

@amugs wrote:12Z EURO FLIZZARD for Super Bowl

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 1612666800-8T4tAuO1fxs
is there any hope with this storm or it’s over

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:06 pm

give it 24-36hrs Frank to see if the storm comes back. If its close by tomorrow eve then there is still hope. If not move on to the next. As stated earlier the pattern IMO dictates a miss to the S&E is most likely so expectations need to follow accordingly for now.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:18 pm

The SE ridge gets over done all winter by models. Cold will dump somewhere in the US. It may be further west, but that maybe ok. If we get the TPV too close to us, then it's cold and dry. I'd rather try and get baroclinic zone closer to us and give us storm chances.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:20 pm

Nothing you(anyone who looked) saw today beyond day 5-7 will verify. No concerns at this time

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:21 pm

This one looks to be on life support on tonights runs.

As always lets wait until we get a good sampling from land which I don't think will be until Friday. Not holding my breath for this one, but there's still almost 2 feet of snow on the ground so I'm good for several days.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:23 am

6Z GFS is closer to the coast. Brings light snow into the area.
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