Monday's N&W Snowfall
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1190ftalt
Gator99
GreyBeard
richb521
kalleg
DAYBLAZER
frank 638
weatherwatchermom
Radz
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Irish
CPcantmeasuresnow
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hyde345
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SNOW MAN
algae888
dkodgis
docstox12
jmanley32
oldtimer
aiannone
billg315
heehaw453
amugs
35 posters
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Monday's N&W Snowfall
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
12 Z EURO until 18Z comes out
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Sn10_acc.us_ne](https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021022112/036/sn10_acc.us_ne.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Sn10_acc.us_ne](https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021022112/036/sn10_acc.us_ne.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
18 Z 3K NAM agrees
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Sn10_024h.us_ne](https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021022118/030/sn10_024h.us_ne.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Sn10_024h.us_ne](https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021022118/030/sn10_024h.us_ne.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
I'm seeing a lot of discussion on media that this snow won't accumulate and not a big deal as late February sun will mitigate accumulations since it occurs during the day.
Hmm I'm at 26.2/14.6 right now which is a good overrunning surface that will wet bulb nicely. Moreover, if rates approach 1-2"/hr it will accumulate and rapidly. I've seen 1-2"/hr easily accumulate in mid March quite easily. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Hmm I'm at 26.2/14.6 right now which is a good overrunning surface that will wet bulb nicely. Moreover, if rates approach 1-2"/hr it will accumulate and rapidly. I've seen 1-2"/hr easily accumulate in mid March quite easily. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
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Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Absolutely people think Sun Angle will save them - it still Feb for goodness sake and this happen to be 1" hr rates plus you stick no doubt.heehaw453 wrote:I'm seeing a lot of discussion on media that this snow won't accumulate and not a big deal as late February sun will mitigate accumulations since it occurs during the day.
Hmm I'm at 26.2/14.6 right now which is a good overrunning surface that will wet bulb nicely. Moreover, if rates approach 1-2"/hr it will accumulate and rapidly. I've seen 1-2"/hr easily accumulate in mid March quite easily. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
No will it be all 3" on roadway maybe not but Do NOT POO PPO this for N & W areas especially with elevations.
HRDPS = GEM LAM goes full bore
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Hrdps_asnow_neus_30](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2021022118/hrdps_asnow_neus_30.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Tuesday snow shower to follow up??
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021022118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021022118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
RAP HUMINA BABY!!
![Monday's N&W Snowfall EuycYngVgAYbw8S?format=png&name=900x900](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuycYngVgAYbw8S?format=png&name=900x900)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
HRRR wowza
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 60BB143A-2981-4A18-B7B1-46CAB8DF79E5.png.daeb23265a9b24e5ff220c4c9bb02f53](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/60BB143A-2981-4A18-B7B1-46CAB8DF79E5.png.daeb23265a9b24e5ff220c4c9bb02f53.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 60BB143A-2981-4A18-B7B1-46CAB8DF79E5.png.daeb23265a9b24e5ff220c4c9bb02f53](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/60BB143A-2981-4A18-B7B1-46CAB8DF79E5.png.daeb23265a9b24e5ff220c4c9bb02f53.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Daytime snow in late Feb/March all comes down to two things: 1.) was a layer of snow put down before the sun comes up (ie has the snow started accumulating before daybreak and can just build on what already is accumulating); and 2. What is the intensity of snowfall. We don’t have #1 tomorrow, so it comes down to intensity. In March 2018 I was reminded how snow will accumulate despite sun angle in March as long as it is moderate to heavy and ground temps are close to freezing. I think N&W of I-95 surface temps will be close enough to freezing that any moderate to heavy snow will stick. I could see a few hours of decent snow rates from this with 2-4” sticking. Major, well traveled, treated highways may not get too bad but side roads could see decent accumulation.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
21/9 here. Amazing it’s going to rain tmw. What a bummer to have to watch the snowpack melt away tmw
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-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Mugs. Rain for Long Island?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
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Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Alex. No chance for us at all? Can’t shift se 30 40 miles?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
EURO steady as she goes 3 runs in a row now with this look
![Monday's N&W Snowfall D0A89C9B-F1C5-4909-BB60-8EA0C568A998.png.d76dac4753c55654c67d504471a81e31](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/D0A89C9B-F1C5-4909-BB60-8EA0C568A998.png.d76dac4753c55654c67d504471a81e31.png)
Temps wet bulb under heavier bands so 34 = 32/31
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 0D03634F-359F-4180-8DEB-5BF17F4A79C3.png.8712df90669c1e3260707fb9f3b23e53](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/0D03634F-359F-4180-8DEB-5BF17F4A79C3.png.8712df90669c1e3260707fb9f3b23e53.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall D0A89C9B-F1C5-4909-BB60-8EA0C568A998.png.d76dac4753c55654c67d504471a81e31](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/D0A89C9B-F1C5-4909-BB60-8EA0C568A998.png.d76dac4753c55654c67d504471a81e31.png)
Temps wet bulb under heavier bands so 34 = 32/31
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 0D03634F-359F-4180-8DEB-5BF17F4A79C3.png.8712df90669c1e3260707fb9f3b23e53](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/0D03634F-359F-4180-8DEB-5BF17F4A79C3.png.8712df90669c1e3260707fb9f3b23e53.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
0Z NAM ticks colder yet again more E and S.
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 757159591_sn10_acc.us_ne(13).png.99894d2bec332d90827f5b7ebed7fc6b](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/757159591_sn10_acc.us_ne(13).png.99894d2bec332d90827f5b7ebed7fc6b.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 757159591_sn10_acc.us_ne(13).png.99894d2bec332d90827f5b7ebed7fc6b](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/757159591_sn10_acc.us_ne(13).png.99894d2bec332d90827f5b7ebed7fc6b.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
3K NAM is too.
Start time 11-12 West to East
END TIME 4-5PM
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh16-22.gif.d7482a38288e58964f19cbcbdf8adbc2](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh16-22.gif.d7482a38288e58964f19cbcbdf8adbc2.gif)
Start time 11-12 West to East
END TIME 4-5PM
![Monday's N&W Snowfall Nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh16-22.gif.d7482a38288e58964f19cbcbdf8adbc2](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh16-22.gif.d7482a38288e58964f19cbcbdf8adbc2.gif)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
This should cause stickage to roads
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 1614016800-QXgihwHY9LM](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nyc/snow_1hr_10to1/1613955600/1614016800-QXgihwHY9LM.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 1614016800-QXgihwHY9LM](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nyc/snow_1hr_10to1/1613955600/1614016800-QXgihwHY9LM.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Gfs trends cder and snowier too with its dry bias
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 257603210_prateptype_cat.us_ne(1).png.ee047440dc70bcc54eaf96524af12634](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/257603210_prateptype_cat.us_ne(1).png.ee047440dc70bcc54eaf96524af12634.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 257603210_prateptype_cat.us_ne(1).png.ee047440dc70bcc54eaf96524af12634](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/257603210_prateptype_cat.us_ne(1).png.ee047440dc70bcc54eaf96524af12634.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
HRRR dropped a shoot with this output.
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 1614024000-3ZmQsm2yKaM](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nyc/total_snow_10to1/1613959200/1614024000-3ZmQsm2yKaM.png)
![Monday's N&W Snowfall 1614024000-3ZmQsm2yKaM](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/nyc/total_snow_10to1/1613959200/1614024000-3ZmQsm2yKaM.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Wel lthat shows several inches IMBY, is that possible? I was fully expecting a rainy day, might it be accumulating snow buy this map?amugs wrote:HRRR dropped a shoot with this output.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Nws bumped up from 1-2 to 2-4 here.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Well doc and CP this is a razor thin cutoff where that extra 20 to 25 miles north would give me 2 to 4 and instead rain here. I might just take a drive up to 287 to see the snow. So crazy its go rain here and 20 min drive or less with no traffic and boom 2 to 4. It is what it is but dang.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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