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Monday's N&W Snowfall

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Monday's N&W Snowfall Empty Monday's N&W Snowfall

Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:27 pm

Lest start this thread for those N & W and not gum up the other threads but it is looking like a 2-5" snowfall for folks in this circled region. From NY Metro Weather
Monday's N&W Snowfall Euxytb10

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:28 pm

12 Z EURO until 18Z comes out
Monday's N&W Snowfall Sn10_acc.us_ne

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:29 pm

18 Z 3K NAM agrees

Monday's N&W Snowfall Sn10_024h.us_ne

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:10 pm

I'm seeing a lot of discussion on media that this snow won't accumulate and not a big deal as late February sun will mitigate accumulations since it occurs during the day.

Hmm I'm at 26.2/14.6 right now which is a good overrunning surface that will wet bulb nicely. Moreover, if rates approach 1-2"/hr it will accumulate and rapidly. I've seen 1-2"/hr easily accumulate in mid March quite easily. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:14 pm

18Z RGEM

Monday's N&W Snowfall Rgem14

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:14 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:I'm seeing a lot of discussion on media that this snow won't accumulate and not a big deal as late February sun will mitigate accumulations since it occurs during the day.  

Hmm I'm at 26.2/14.6 right now which is a good overrunning surface that will wet bulb nicely. Moreover, if rates approach 1-2"/hr it will accumulate and rapidly.  I've seen 1-2"/hr easily accumulate in mid March quite easily.  Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Absolutely people think Sun Angle will save them - it still Feb for goodness sake and this happen to be 1" hr rates plus you stick no doubt.
No will it be all 3" on roadway maybe not but Do NOT POO PPO this for N & W areas especially with elevations.
HRDPS = GEM LAM goes full bore
Monday's N&W Snowfall Hrdps_asnow_neus_30

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:16 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:18Z RGEM

Monday's N&W Snowfall Rgem14

I think it has had a SW bias this winter with most of the storms but time will tell - 18 Z EURO up next. Imagine if this were mid December?? This board would be lighting up like a Xmas Tree! This is what we can Winter Fatigue!!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:19 pm

Tuesday snow shower to follow up??

Monday's N&W Snowfall Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:25 pm

RAP HUMINA BABY!!

Monday's N&W Snowfall EuycYngVgAYbw8S?format=png&name=900x900

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:37 pm

HRRR wowza
Monday's N&W Snowfall 60BB143A-2981-4A18-B7B1-46CAB8DF79E5.png.daeb23265a9b24e5ff220c4c9bb02f53

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:08 pm

Daytime snow in late Feb/March all comes down to two things: 1.) was a layer of snow put down before the sun comes up (ie has the snow started accumulating before daybreak and can just build on what already is accumulating); and 2. What is the intensity of snowfall. We don’t have #1 tomorrow, so it comes down to intensity. In March 2018 I was reminded how snow will accumulate despite sun angle in March as long as it is moderate to heavy and ground temps are close to freezing. I think N&W of I-95 surface temps will be close enough to freezing that any moderate to heavy snow will stick. I could see a few hours of decent snow rates from this with 2-4” sticking. Major, well traveled, treated highways may not get too bad but side roads could see decent accumulation.
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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:11 pm

21/9 here. Amazing it’s going to rain tmw. What a bummer to have to watch the snowpack melt away tmw
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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:16 pm

Mugs.  Rain for Long Island?

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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:26 pm

Alex. No chance for us at all?  Can’t shift se 30 40 miles?

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:57 pm

No LI not in the game tomorrow sorry guys and Old Timer
Fall line follow the light blue and yellow.line on it just to the west

Monday's N&W Snowfall Euyzvm10

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:01 pm

EURO steady as she goes 3 runs in a row now with this look

Monday's N&W Snowfall D0A89C9B-F1C5-4909-BB60-8EA0C568A998.png.d76dac4753c55654c67d504471a81e31

Temps wet bulb under heavier bands so 34 = 32/31

Monday's N&W Snowfall 0D03634F-359F-4180-8DEB-5BF17F4A79C3.png.8712df90669c1e3260707fb9f3b23e53

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:43 pm

0Z NAM ticks colder yet again more E and S.
Monday's N&W Snowfall 757159591_sn10_acc.us_ne(13).png.99894d2bec332d90827f5b7ebed7fc6b

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:45 pm

3K NAM is too.
Start time 11-12 West to East
END TIME 4-5PM
Monday's N&W Snowfall Nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh16-22.gif.d7482a38288e58964f19cbcbdf8adbc2

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:21 pm

This should cause stickage to roads

Monday's N&W Snowfall 1614016800-QXgihwHY9LM

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:47 pm

Gfs trends cder and snowier too with its dry bias

Monday's N&W Snowfall 257603210_prateptype_cat.us_ne(1).png.ee047440dc70bcc54eaf96524af12634

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:48 pm

HRRR dropped a shoot with this output.

Monday's N&W Snowfall 1614024000-3ZmQsm2yKaM

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:05 pm

@amugs wrote:HRRR dropped a shoot with this output.

Monday's N&W Snowfall 1614024000-3ZmQsm2yKaM
Wel lthat shows several inches IMBY, is that possible? I was fully expecting a rainy day, might it be accumulating snow buy this map?
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:48 am

08Z HRRR  and AccuWeather have different takes.

Monday's N&W Snowfall Accuwe14
Monday's N&W Snowfall Hrrr11

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:20 am

Nws bumped up from 1-2 to 2-4 here.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:47 am

Well doc and CP this is a razor thin cutoff where that extra 20 to 25 miles north would give me 2 to 4 and instead rain here. I might just take a drive up to 287 to see the snow. So crazy its go rain here and 20 min drive or less with no traffic and boom 2 to 4. It is what it is but dang.
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