Monday's N&W Snowfall

Lest start this thread for those N & W and not gum up the other threads but it is looking like a 2-5" snowfall for folks in this circled region. From NY Metro Weather

12 Z EURO until 18Z comes out

18 Z 3K NAM agrees

I'm seeing a lot of discussion on media that this snow won't accumulate and not a big deal as late February sun will mitigate accumulations since it occurs during the day.

Hmm I'm at 26.2/14.6 right now which is a good overrunning surface that will wet bulb nicely. Moreover, if rates approach 1-2"/hr it will accumulate and rapidly. I've seen 1-2"/hr easily accumulate in mid March quite easily. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

18Z RGEM

heehaw453 wrote:I'm seeing a lot of discussion on media that this snow won't accumulate and not a big deal as late February sun will mitigate accumulations since it occurs during the day.  

Hmm I'm at 26.2/14.6 right now which is a good overrunning surface that will wet bulb nicely. Moreover, if rates approach 1-2"/hr it will accumulate and rapidly.  I've seen 1-2"/hr easily accumulate in mid March quite easily.  Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Absolutely people think Sun Angle will save them - it still Feb for goodness sake and this happen to be 1" hr rates plus you stick no doubt.
No will it be all 3" on roadway maybe not but Do NOT POO PPO this for N & W areas especially with elevations.
HRDPS = GEM LAM goes full bore

heehaw453 wrote:18Z RGEM

I think it has had a SW bias this winter with most of the storms but time will tell - 18 Z EURO up next. Imagine if this were mid December?? This board would be lighting up like a Xmas Tree! This is what we can Winter Fatigue!!!!

Tuesday snow shower to follow up??

RAP HUMINA BABY!!

HRRR wowza

Daytime snow in late Feb/March all comes down to two things: 1.) was a layer of snow put down before the sun comes up (ie has the snow started accumulating before daybreak and can just build on what already is accumulating); and 2. What is the intensity of snowfall. We don’t have #1 tomorrow, so it comes down to intensity. In March 2018 I was reminded how snow will accumulate despite sun angle in March as long as it is moderate to heavy and ground temps are close to freezing. I think N&W of I-95 surface temps will be close enough to freezing that any moderate to heavy snow will stick. I could see a few hours of decent snow rates from this with 2-4” sticking. Major, well traveled, treated highways may not get too bad but side roads could see decent accumulation.

Mugs.  Rain for Long Island?

Alex. No chance for us at all?  Can’t shift se 30 40 miles?

No LI not in the game tomorrow sorry guys and Old Timer
Fall line follow the light blue and yellow.line on it just to the west

EURO steady as she goes 3 runs in a row now with this look



Temps wet bulb under heavier bands so 34 = 32/31

0Z NAM ticks colder yet again more E and S.

3K NAM is too.
Start time 11-12 West to East
END TIME 4-5PM

This should cause stickage to roads

Gfs trends cder and snowier too with its dry bias

HRRR dropped a shoot with this output.

amugs wrote:HRRR dropped a shoot with this output.

Wel lthat shows several inches IMBY, is that possible? I was fully expecting a rainy day, might it be accumulating snow buy this map?

08Z HRRR  and AccuWeather have different takes.

Nws bumped up from 1-2 to 2-4 here.

Well doc and CP this is a razor thin cutoff where that extra 20 to 25 miles north would give me 2 to 4 and instead rain here. I might just take a drive up to 287 to see the snow. So crazy its go rain here and 20 min drive or less with no traffic and boom 2 to 4. It is what it is but dang.