2021 Tropical Season

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

Me too. Should be telling. If they still have a westward lean, then I’d really start to worry for substantial impacts for the Jersey Shore as well. Because that would signify that we still might not be done with further westward corrections.

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

Me too. Should be telling. If they still have a westward lean, then I’d really start to worry for substantial impacts for the Jersey Shore as well. Because that would signify that we still might not be done with further westward corrections.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

Me too. Should be telling. If they still have a westward lean, then I’d really start to worry for substantial impacts for the Jersey Shore as well. Because that would signify that we still might not be done with further westward corrections.

rb should i stock up on stuff? like non perishibles etc? do you feel confident enough in your area of potential landfall that the threat is real enough to go the route of potential large scale outages? doesnt take but 40-50mph to knock power here let alone 70 plus

rb924119 wrote:For me, Jman, if I see that westward lean in the EPS and 18z/00z runs adjust further, I’m probably packing my stuff and evacuating LBI tomorrow because I know how badly this place floods with relatively minimal water/tide changes. And that’s in spite of not being directly hit. But it’s because I know how this island reacts to storms. I’m not worried about the power nearly so much as the water.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

Me too. Should be telling. If they still have a westward lean, then I’d really start to worry for substantial impacts for the Jersey Shore as well. Because that would signify that we still might not be done with further westward corrections.

rb should i stock up on stuff? like non perishibles etc? do you feel confident enough in your area of potential landfall that the threat is real enough to go the route of potential large scale outages? doesnt take but 40-50mph to knock power here let alone 70 plus

Let me respond this way: I’m not going to tell you what to do because I don’t live where you live, so I don’t know how your area handles storms like this. You’ve been through several, so use your best judgement here. That said, if I had to give myself a confidence index on actual landfall relative to my earlier map, I’d probably be in the 70-80% range that Henri landfalls somewhere in that zone. If I had to hedge the other 20-30%, I’d hedge it from NYC south and west to northern Ocean County.

SoulSingMG wrote:This would be an inland flood disaster à la Irene.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough.  If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real.  I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run.  This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall  

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

Timing and positioning are kind of one in the same.  6 of one half dozen of another.  I still think we cannot look at this as simple as "being captured by the trough" And positioning of "the trough", because this is a cutoff low capturing Henri which acts as the fulcrum to the pivot to start.  It, the ULL, gets captured, by the mean trough coming in from the west.  Its capture is weak at best until our system has made landfall.  So this is a much more complex discussion on that front.  The energy rounding the base of the mean trough is minimally consequential in its direct influence to Henri.  The capture of the ULL and its initial interactions with Henri, before it is weakly captured by the mean trough, is adding minimal amts of energy to Henri.  Its main influence is in its capture, and uses as the pivot to steer him along with the ridge to the NE, and weakly at that as the steering current will be weak when he reaches North of the latitude of NCarolina.  

 

 

I undertsnd

I don’t follow you here, brother. Timing and positioning CAN be one in the same, but in this case I would contend they aren’t, because the trough is moving NW-SE. So if it’s slower/faster, it would just shift along that 1-D axis. However, if it starts from a different position or comes in at a different angle AND a different speed, now you’re changing two dimensions, and the downstream impacts multiply.

I also don’t follow your logic of the ULL getting captured by the mean trough. The mean trough is out west and is nowhere near our features of interest. It’s just the behavior of the ULL (what I am referring to as the trough), it’s associated energy, and Henri’s circulation.

Lastly, I strongly disagree with your thoughts on the effects of the trough’s energy. Whenever you have a phase of vorticity maxima, you add energy to the system. Secondly, when you have a maturing trough (aka tilting negative), you don’t increase the energy of the system but you allow it’s dynamics to be more effectively utilized via consolidation and advection. Add this to the outside presence of a favorable environment for strengthening a tropical cyclone, and this is the reason why the models are projecting the strengthening of Henri, which makes physical sense.

Additionally, by having stronger energy at the base of the ULL/trough, not only do you enhance the the above factors, but you also enhance the ability of the trough to force height falls out ahead of it (which is also to the west of Henri). By forcing increasingly lower heights, you effectively shorten the axis that Henri pivots on, thereby increasing the efficiency of the capture and producing more of an east-west component to the steering flow while reducing the south-north component. This is why we are seeing continued westward trend in the track, and also partially why we see the increasing height tendencies in the Atlantic ridge.

I love the debate, brother!!

Lets debate this point.  My point is this.  Take Sandy for example.  Sandy's capture came visa vi a long wave trough.  Embedded within the long wave trough you get a much more consolidated vort max that rounds the base of the trough and phases with your system like Sandy, and when the trough tilts negative you get your pivot, your strengthening(as it transitions from warm to cold core with the injection of energy from the LW trough), and your hook like track back west as a result of the negative tilt.  

Now I understand that perhaps by definition an ULL is technically a trough, it is NOT a long wave trough and behaves very differently, esp in this situation.  There is no consolidated vort max beacause there is no base to the trough, because its cutoff from the mean flow.  It is a uniform cicular trough with no defined base to it.  There is only incoherent vort max's of varying intensity rotating around its center of circulation independent to the mean jet stream flow. As Henri begins to interact with it it does so very differently than it would if it were to interact directly with the long wave trough like Sandy did.  

While I will conceded it may input some energy into the system, it is not a phase the way one would characterize when a system phases with a LW trough.  The energy input is minimal in this situation relatively speaking.  The ULL's main interactions with Henri will be to influence the steering flow initially.  In this case  aiding him tto turn northward on his track, and then second will come the pivot.  But because there isnt a defined base, and therefore strong consolidated phase, like with a LW trough,  you get more of a pivot from a fujiwara type effects where you get the pivot around the axis point between the center of two low pressure systems.  Maybe im way off with that but I know there stark differences in how an ULL behaves and its dynamics, when compared to a long wave trough.  If you follow the 500mb height lines the approaching LW trough does interact with the ULL after it has started its interactions with Henri and begins to tug on it a bit.



One would anticipate if the pivot were truly from phasing as you're suggesting the system should be strengthening as it makes landfall and receives the injection of energy and tilts neg, and not weaken like is forecast.  As I stated yesterday I really think as it heads N of the GS the much colder SST's will cause weakening on approach rather than strengthening, esp the slower it moves.  


The LW trough, that as the system approaches its landfall, erodes the NE ridge and eventually allows the system to escape as it gets caught up in the LW flow.  

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

Me too. Should be telling. If they still have a westward lean, then I’d really start to worry for substantial impacts for the Jersey Shore as well. Because that would signify that we still might not be done with further westward corrections.

rb should i stock up on stuff? like non perishibles etc? do you feel confident enough in your area of potential landfall that the threat is real enough to go the route of potential large scale outages? doesnt take but 40-50mph to knock power here let alone 70 plus

Let me respond this way: I’m not going to tell you what to do because I don’t live where you live, so I don’t know how your area handles storms like this. You’ve been through several, so use your best judgement here. That said, if I had to give myself a confidence index on actual landfall relative to my earlier map, I’d probably be in the 70-80% range that Henri landfalls somewhere in that zone. If I had to hedge the other 20-30%, I’d hedge it from NYC south and west to northern Ocean County.

So the one you drew you have a 70-80% confidence in?

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough.  If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real.  I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run.  This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall  

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

Timing and positioning are kind of one in the same.  6 of one half dozen of another.  I still think we cannot look at this as simple as "being captured by the trough" And positioning of "the trough", because this is a cutoff low capturing Henri which acts as the fulcrum to the pivot to start.  It, the ULL, gets captured, by the mean trough coming in from the west.  Its capture is weak at best until our system has made landfall.  So this is a much more complex discussion on that front.  The energy rounding the base of the mean trough is minimally consequential in its direct influence to Henri.  The capture of the ULL and its initial interactions with Henri, before it is weakly captured by the mean trough, is adding minimal amts of energy to Henri.  Its main influence is in its capture, and uses as the pivot to steer him along with the ridge to the NE, and weakly at that as the steering current will be weak when he reaches North of the latitude of NCarolina.  

 

 

I undertsnd

I don’t follow you here, brother. Timing and positioning CAN be one in the same, but in this case I would contend they aren’t, because the trough is moving NW-SE. So if it’s slower/faster, it would just shift along that 1-D axis. However, if it starts from a different position or comes in at a different angle AND a different speed, now you’re changing two dimensions, and the downstream impacts multiply.

I also don’t follow your logic of the ULL getting captured by the mean trough. The mean trough is out west and is nowhere near our features of interest. It’s just the behavior of the ULL (what I am referring to as the trough), it’s associated energy, and Henri’s circulation.

Lastly, I strongly disagree with your thoughts on the effects of the trough’s energy. Whenever you have a phase of vorticity maxima, you add energy to the system. Secondly, when you have a maturing trough (aka tilting negative), you don’t increase the energy of the system but you allow it’s dynamics to be more effectively utilized via consolidation and advection. Add this to the outside presence of a favorable environment for strengthening a tropical cyclone, and this is the reason why the models are projecting the strengthening of Henri, which makes physical sense.

Additionally, by having stronger energy at the base of the ULL/trough, not only do you enhance the the above factors, but you also enhance the ability of the trough to force height falls out ahead of it (which is also to the west of Henri). By forcing increasingly lower heights, you effectively shorten the axis that Henri pivots on, thereby increasing the efficiency of the capture and producing more of an east-west component to the steering flow while reducing the south-north component. This is why we are seeing continued westward trend in the track, and also partially why we see the increasing height tendencies in the Atlantic ridge.

I love the debate, brother!!

Lets debate this point.  My point is this.  Take Sandy for example.  Sandy's capture came visa vi a long wave trough.  Embedded within the long wave trough you get a much more consolidated vort max that rounds the base of the trough and phases with your system like Sandy, and when the trough tilts negative you get your pivot, your strengthening(as it transitions from warm to cold core with the injection of energy from the LW trough), and your hook like track back west as a result of the negative tilt.  

Now I understand that perhaps by definition an ULL is technically a trough, it is NOT a long wave trough and behaves very differently, esp in this situation.  There is no consolidated vort max beacause there is no base to the trough, because its cutoff from the mean flow.  It is a uniform cicular trough with no defined base to it.  There is only incoherent vort max's of varying intensity rotating around its center of circulation independent to the mean jet stream flow. As Henri begins to interact with it it does so very differently than it would if it were to interact directly with the long wave trough like Sandy did.  

While I will conceded it may input some energy into the system, it is not a phase the way one would characterize when a system phases with a LW trough.  The energy input is minimal in this situation relatively speaking.  The ULL's main interactions with Henri will be to influence the steering flow initially.  In this case  aiding him tto turn northward on his track, and then second will come the pivot.  But because there isnt a defined base, and therefore strong consolidated phase, like with a LW trough,  you get more of a pivot from a fujiwara type effects where you get the pivot around the axis point between the center of two low pressure systems.  Maybe im way off with that but I know there stark differences in how an ULL behaves and its dynamics, when compared to a long wave trough.  If you follow the 500mb height lines the approaching LW trough does interact with the ULL after it has started its interactions with Henri and begins to tug on it a bit.



One would anticipate if the pivot were truly from phasing as you're suggesting the system should be strengthening as it makes landfall and receives the injection of energy and tilts neg, and not weaken like is forecast.  As I stated yesterday I really think as it heads N of the GS the much colder SST's will cause weakening on approach rather than strengthening, esp the slower it moves.  


The LW trough, that as the system approaches its landfall, erodes the NE ridge and eventually allows the system to escape as it gets caught up in the LW flow.  

So, just to play devil’s advocate here, Sandy was weakening on approach as well. 942mb a few hours before landfall, 947 at landfall. Granted, there’s a whole other debate to be had as to WHY it weakened (cough….still tropical……cough lol), but we needn’t go down that rabbit hole now. BUT, I do agree that the interaction DID lead to its previous strengthening. Similarly, it seems that we’ve been able to narrow down our differences to two:

1. The amount of influence that the injection of mid-latitude energy has on the relative strength of Henri

2. The way that the ULL/trough behaves in order to impart steering vectors on Henri’s circulation

We’re making progress!! Haha

To the first point, but also touching on the second because it’s related, there’s not much other than to go into how energy itself is structured. We can go round and round about the relative strength/density of the energy and it’s impact on the overall strength of Henri’s circulation, but I think both of our efforts would be futile. You think I’m overestimating it, I think you’re underestimating it, and we can fully agree to respectfully disagree there - it’s purely subjective HOWEVER, I do contend that the placement and orientation of that energy within the trough/ULL makes a huge difference.

For example, say you consolidate the energy (or for argument’s sake, more than 50% of it) in the southeastern sector of the ULL/trough as it begins its interaction with Henri’s circulation. Even though it’s not a full long wave trough, as the ULL/trough opens up to interact, it still behaves the same way, albeit on a less grand scale. The height tendency would be negative to the east and northeast of the center of the ULL/trough AND Henri, thereby allowing it to propagate north-northeastward via the height falls induced by the PVA as the trough/ULL kick Henri’s circulation further east via wave spacing considerations, but also erode the northwestern flank of the Atlantic ridge, as you correctly stated.

If we consolidate the energy (or again for argument’s sake, more than 50% of it) in the western/southwestern quadrant(s), then the height falls are focused to the west and eventually southwest of Henri’s circulation. Since Henri’s circulation has no mean vorticity advection, that means that as the trough/continues to interact with Henri, it has an increasing influence. As the height falls occur to Henri’s west and southwest, and the trough/ULL continues to amplify via an increasingly negative tilt, then that also means that the Atlantic ridge would have to amplify by way of Rossby wave amplification properties. This, in turn, is essentially a positive feedback loop which forces the westward bend.

At this point, the modeling favors the later example in my opinion, with a majority of the ULL/trough’s energy being consolidated on the western/southwestern flank as opposed on the eastern/southeastern flank, and I contend it’s stronger as well. This is reflected in my track forecast, but also is supported, in my opinion, by the blocking in the Atlantic domain, as well as other factors which are working constructively to slow and consolidate energy.

sroc4 wrote:Im not done with yet Ray...lol  I still think my side of the argument is more correct.  Im at work and struggling to find the time to rebuttal.  But I will.  lol

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS is even further west than previous run, putting the potential for substantial impacts on the Jersey Shore into fair game.

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS is even further west than previous run, putting the potential for substantial impacts on the Jersey Shore into fair game.

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS is even further west than previous run, putting the potential for substantial impacts on the Jersey Shore into fair game.

NO……I haven’t seen them yet. You serious??

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS is even further west than previous run, putting the potential for substantial impacts on the Jersey Shore into fair game.

NO……I haven’t seen them yet. You serious??

Dead.

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