2021 Tropical Season

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:NAO forecast now saying -2/3SD Negative by OCT 10TH.  What timing for TC to come up the coast.

What does that mean bad news for us with potential Sam?

Jon,

It could block the storm from going OTS and force to hug the coast or push it into the coast. Lots of time but the set up is something we need to pay attention to.

NAO

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Time lapse infrared satellite of IDA. Mesmerizing

Def cool look at way that area of deep convention blew up right over us. Why exactly did that happen cuz coming is it didn't look that bad until it was on top us.

My goodness!! That was amazing to watch...so glad it ran all the through so we could what unfolded up our way. It almost looks like Ida acted like an inverted plunger and just kept pressure pumping all of that deep gulf convection until it finally broke through...right over NNJ-SNE. You can also totally see how the coast got spare the worst of it. I'm gonna watch it again...thanks for posting Sroc!

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Time lapse infrared satellite of IDA. Mesmerizing

Def cool look at way that area of deep convention blew up right over us. Why exactly did that happen cuz coming is it didn't look that bad until it was on top us.

Interacted with the frontal boundary. With its connection still from the deep south once it reached the coast it was able to tap into the moisture from off the coast.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:NAO forecast now saying -2/3SD Negative by OCT 10TH.  What timing for TC to come up the coast.

What does that mean bad news for us with potential Sam?

Jon,

It could block the storm from going OTS and force to hug the coast or push it into the coast. Lots of time but the set up is something we need to pay attention to.

NAO

Ahh okay, these indepth analysis you guys can see for patterns is amazing, I will trust in thee unless we have another gulf storm to push Sam out like the last one. Not that another tropical system up here would be good but some minor to moderate excitement is always fun to track. When should we have a better idea next week?

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Time lapse infrared satellite of IDA. Mesmerizing

Def cool look at way that area of deep convention blew up right over us. Why exactly did that happen cuz coming is it didn't look that bad until it was on top us.

Interacted with the frontal boundary.  With its connection still from the deep south once it reached the coast it was able to tap into the moisture from off the coast.  

That is what I was guessing, placement was just in the right place at the right time for the two to interact. I see a trend of systems getting to each other at just the right time, could u imagine if that was a snow storm my lord. Let's hope we see some bombs this year for snow : ) I know off topic but had throw that in there.

Not a good look for the coast here.

amugs wrote:Not a good look for the coast here.

Yep I saw that, run before it looked different so who knows at this time, i am guessing we know better mid week next week. Looks like he is shooting for major status.

We officially have Tropical Storm Sam:  

Given the look to the teleconnections etc in the md and LR there is a chance he flirts with the EC in a little over 7-10 days from now.  That said Keep in mind the upper level pattern is very different in the 3-5day time frame on both the GFS and EURO let alone the 7-10 which is when we would even have to worry.  VERY different.  So take tracks beyond that(3-5days) with a HUGE grain of salt right now.  Let him get to the lesser Antilles before we really start to raise an eyebrow and project possible effects to the EC.  

EURO -No BUENO set up for the coast.
GFS has come west the last two runs as we;; but still lots of time for changes ......either way.
The deep trough over the central apps will pull it to the coast and he HP over head will help with this.



You can see the overhead = Greenlandish block setting up and there is another one over the Canadian prairies

I finally get a storm in my name, and I die quietly in the Atlantic.

You're welcome!!!!

https://www.nytimes.com/article/tropical-storm-peter-hurricane.html

Yikes if it comes to fruition!!

essexcountypete wrote:I finally get a storm in my name, and I die quietly in the Atlantic.

You're welcome!!!!

https://www.nytimes.com/article/tropical-storm-peter-hurricane.html

It should have never been named nor should Rose they were putrid as storms at best

amugs wrote:Yikes if it comes to fruition!!

And last two GFS runs pull a sharp left just too far north, this one def has be watched, you can see on 12z gfs what pulls him back west, if it was further south would pulled a sandy like track.

OH BOY!

amugs wrote:OH BOY!

Yup both euro and cmc pull him into coast Maine on cmc gets a moderate hurricane then rotates through new England the size of Sandy. The risk of a hybrid situation similar to Sandy looks possible no?

Just realized Sandy Sam and almost the same date of Sandy?!!

jmanley32 wrote:Just realized Sandy Sam and almost the same date of Sandy?!!

I thought Sandy was several weeks later.

MattyICE wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Just realized Sandy Sam and almost the same date of Sandy?!!

I thought Sandy was several weeks later.

I was just realizing this on my way home haha, yes a month off. End of october not Sept. still this ones gotta be watched.

You guys remember that snowstorm that followed Sandy? I think it was Nov.6 th. Central park got 4.7. The boys up in Orange county got 13.2. Doc,cp and dkodgis loved that one I'm sure.

If that ridge rolls over SE CAN sooner and moves a bit more east than Maine not the Cape is the area of concern. Next week we watch VERY closely to this progression.
High Pressure over troubled waters.
Or if is stays further west then it scoots pass the entire EC .
Lots of time to see this development

amugs wrote:If that ridge rolls over SE CAN sooner and moves a bit more east than Maine not the Cape is the area of concern. Next week we watch VERY closely to this progression.
High Pressure over troubled waters.
Or if is stays further west then it scoots pass the entire EC .
Lots of time to see this development

So this will not be a concern for our immediate area? see the fantasyland 18z gfs yikes.

Probably one of few snowstorms you didn't enjoy,doc. The whole extended lack of power situation definately put a damper on it.
Sorry for the banter, mods. mea culpa.

Doesnt look like Sam will be a threat to US, next one to watch behind him and GFS hinting LR something developing in tropics around jamaica and moving up toward FL.

A La Niña-like atmospheric pattern looks like it will develop during the coming weeks.

By late October, sinking air is expected to focus over the central Pacific, in response to cooler than average ocean temperatures.

Atlantic hurricane season looks likely to rumble on pic.twitter.com/kycJtXfQ46

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 30, 2021