2021 Tropical Season

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:ray they got a recon checking out the area thats supposedly effecting henri

mission 11 if you look

Are they doing that, or just on their way into Henri’s circulation?

no they are making circles around it and is now headed to Henri, and u are right look at the3 center pts the 989 is NNW of the southern most.

Western side is picking up in intensity per recon, lots of 40-50mph sustained surface level winds.

Now the question becomes: How tightly can Henri wrap westward versus gaining latitude? Conceptually? I’d argue pretty darn tight. In practicality? All bets are off lmao

Glad to hear the western flank is picking up in ten dirt. The satellite imagery has the signature I was looking for, and now the NNW’rd bend has commenced shortly thereafter. So at least those ideas seem ok for now.

rb924119 wrote:Now the question becomes: How tightly can Henri wrap westward versus gaining latitude? Conceptually? I’d argue pretty darn tight. In practicality? All bets are off lmao

so not go happen or you do not know?

Looking like rain, not wind for us but even if it turns west it does not have time to ping pong left then right, or am I underestimating. I see the Central Park concert resumed. Closed down during the Barry Manilow set. Some things you just don’t do.

rb924119 wrote:Glad to hear the western flank is picking up in ten dirt. The satellite imagery has the signature I was looking for, and now the NNW’rd bend has commenced shortly thereafter. So at least those ideas seem ok for now.

How can you be glad it is picking up? Honestly that is bad. I am happy I am at the jersey shore and sage but worry about Long Island people. I am sorry but hope your wrong on this. There are many models saying this goes east and Scott made great points why it would.

From this position and trajectory looks like a Montauk hit maybe just west of there if he keeps this track.
If this happened 4-6 hours earlier he'd be CLI easily

Flash flooding is occurring in Brooklyn, Queens & Manhattan where a warning is now in effect. Just crossed midtown and it’s a MESS out there. Easily over 2” of rain in the last couple hours. Incidentally, the GFS at 12z had the city getting less than half an inch of rain for the entire EVENT.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Now the question becomes: How tightly can Henri wrap westward versus gaining latitude? Conceptually? I’d argue pretty darn tight. In practicality? All bets are off lmao

so not go happen or you do not know?

I don’t know lol it’s obviously making the bend, but how quickly it’ll head west versus north is up for debate. As I said, conceptually, in my opinion, it should be able to do it fairly quickly. In reality, though, I’m not sure. Could very well be a case of too little, too late. Gotta just wait and see.

amugs wrote: From this position and trajectory looks like a Montauk hit maybe just west of there if he keeps this track.
If this happened 4-6 hours earlier he'd be CLI easily

That’s on THIS trajectory…….who says it doesn’t become more east-west? :p I gotta cling to every last straw I have man lmaooo

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Glad to hear the western flank is picking up in ten dirt. The satellite imagery has the signature I was looking for, and now the NNW’rd bend has commenced shortly thereafter. So at least those ideas seem ok for now.

How can you be glad it is picking up? Honestly that is bad. I am happy I am at the jersey shore and sage but worry about Long Island people. I am sorry but hope your wrong on this. There are many models saying this goes east and Scott made great points why it would.

Glad in a relative sense because of my forecast and things I was looking for. I’m not actually glad that it means more impact, but gives me hope that the concerns I’ve been raising throughout the tracking of this event may not have all been for naught, aka they weren’t entirely a false alarm.

Not to worried about the wind up here in the Mid Hudson valley but looks like flooding is incoming with lots of rain.

Does Henri wrap up along the northern periphery of the band circled in blue like a yo-yo on a string? Again, this was my thinking earlier in that post I made about what to look for. Time will tell if those ideas had merit……

rb924119 wrote:

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Glad to hear the western flank is picking up in ten dirt. The satellite imagery has the signature I was looking for, and now the NNW’rd bend has commenced shortly thereafter. So at least those ideas seem ok for now.

How can you be glad it is picking up? Honestly that is bad. I am happy I am at the jersey shore and sage but worry about Long Island people. I am sorry but hope your wrong on this. There are many models saying this goes east and Scott made great points why it would.

Glad in a relative sense because of my forecast and things I was looking for. I’m not actually glad that it means more impact, but gives me hope that the concerns I’ve been raising throughout the tracking of this event may not have all been for naught, aka they weren’t entirely a false alarm.

Thats makes sense

The rain has started up here/reached us

We are no longer looking at a Long Island landfall, per the NHC’s latest forecast track.

flash flood warning here and henri not even close yet. thunder too.

rb924119 wrote:Does Henri wrap up along the northern periphery of the band circled in blue like a yo-yo on a string? Again, this was my thinking earlier in that post I made about what to look for. Time will tell if those ideas had merit……

The following images support me:

1. Jet forcing for ascent outlined in pink to Henri’s west-northwest should help to draw the circulation back as it continues to pivot



2. Positive vorticity advection also located to Henri’s west-northwest, aligning with (1) and in addition to warm air advection, thereby forcing the greatest height falls to Henri’s west-northwest. These height falls should further help to increase the east-west component of Henri’s motion as they help to reorient the steering flow, and also usually occur simultaneously with the greatest decrease in pressure relative to the environment (aka its a sign of where the the storm is headed).



3. Column-average steering flow:



Keep in mind that there will still be a northward component. The question is how efficient are the above mechanisms at translating the south-north motion into east-west? Per the above, I’m aggressive in thinking that it will be fairly efficient, but I’m also inclined to think that based on experience. However, I DON’T KNOW lol all conjecture, gotta wait and see.

SoulSingMG wrote:We are no longer looking at a Long Island landfall, per the NHC’s latest forecast track.

wow they may drop our TSW looks like the winds wouldn't reach that far west on that track. that will be bad news for RI and cape cod who i think thought they were out the woods. hurricane warnings prolly go up there.

SoulSingMG wrote:We are no longer looking at a Long Island landfall, per the NHC’s latest forecast track.

Well even if Henri maintains current heading this would stil be too far east lol

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Does Henri wrap up along the northern periphery of the band circled in blue like a yo-yo on a string? Again, this was my thinking earlier in that post I made about what to look for. Time will tell if those ideas had merit……

The following images support me:

1. Jet forcing for ascent outlined in pink to Henri’s west-northwest should help to draw the circulation back as it continues to pivot



2. Positive vorticity advection also located to Henri’s west-northwest, aligning with (1) and in addition to warm air advection, thereby forcing the greatest height falls to Henri’s west-northwest. These height falls should further help to increase the east-west component of Henri’s motion as they help to reorient the steering flow, and also usually occur simultaneously with the greatest decrease in pressure relative to the environment (aka its a sign of where the the storm is headed).



3. Column-average steering flow:



Keep in mind that there will still be a northward component. The question is how efficient are the above mechanisms at translating the south-north motion into east-west? Per the above, I’m aggressive in thinking that it will be fairly efficient, but I’m also inclined to think that based on experience. However, I DON’T KNOW lol all conjecture, gotta wait and see.

regardless of the outcome your thoughts are very interesting and amazingly complex, to me anyways.  lets see, like a yoyo lol, he is also now trucking at 21mph, not much time to move west even if he went due west.

lots of thunder here right now, pouring. in levi's video he talks about how the storm is going to reorient itself and insane rains will be on the lesft but wil lalso have at least some wind but east of center is the high high winds.

jmanley32 wrote:lots of thunder here right now, pouring. in levi's video he talks about how the storm is going to reorient itself and insane rains will be on the lesft but wil lalso have at least some wind but east of center is the high high winds.

For fun, look at the 00z ICON - gives you a good bit of everything lmaooo

Satellite actually looks like it’s strengthening. Deep convection just firing on the northwest flank with what appears to be an eyewall MAYBE trying to get going? Hard to tell from last frame or two only though haha

Shows the block over Maine and Negat tilt to trough. See what happens from here. This map would indicate a NW track? If not NNW

i think an eye is go break out in that nice circle of convection, recon found 987mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir