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Tropical Storm HENRI: Discussions and Observations

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Zhukov1945
brownie
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essexcountypete
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Joe Snow
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:49 pm

Light rain here now but not far to my west we have a massive slug of moisture that is suppose to rotate through starting around midnight and lasting through about 5/6am.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:51 pm

Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Image.png.109d4be1bdcd9cfd7f10e6b9fb97ad7a

Jesus up 6" more possibly and 8" for other areas as outlined. This is insane

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:45 am

Another flood warning .heavy rain 🌧

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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:40 am

So I have trying to get this uploaded the below images as a GIF as it shows this point much better, but cant seem to figure it out.  So instead I found a GIF online of two trop cyclones from the pacific to show the point.  Henri and the cutoff ULL danced around one another in a process known as the Fujiwhara effect or binary interaction until they combined to become one entity.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as the Fujiwara effect, Fujiw(h)ara interaction or binary interaction, is a phenomenon that occurs when two nearby cyclonic vortices move around each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described the effect. Binary interaction of smaller circulations can cause the development of a larger cyclone, or cause two cyclones to merge into one. Extratropical cyclones typically engage in binary interaction when within 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) of one another, while tropical cyclones typically interact within 1,400 kilometres (870 mi) of each other.

Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi0.wp.com%2Fmenofvalue.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F09%2FHC5


Look at how the cutoff low captures Henri, they then pivot around one another until they become one entity, remain stationary for a brief time as they remain cutoff from the mean flow, and then eventually the new ULL(combined Henri and the original ULL) get picked up and finally carried away.  Def a crazy set up to say the least.  

Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_1
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_2
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_3
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_5

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:22 am

Great illustration SROC! Never knew that tjis nor Sandy?? Would classify under this.

Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Image.png.00726c3159fb51c5a24faf8869e95d20

_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:38 am

River time!!
Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Image.png.aa383777c41916b66b77005f30fdf17e

Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Image.png.9ac61d2c260fc339948336f9205195fc

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:08 am

Anyone have data on reported storm totals for rainfall? The NWS color graphic is impressive, but I'm looking for reports. TIA!
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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:19 am

@amugs wrote:Great illustration SROC! Never knew that tjis nor Sandy?? Would classify under this.

Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Image.png.00726c3159fb51c5a24faf8869e95d20

Sandy's capture was vastly different Mugs. It was pulled in by the main trough. The stalling of Henri reminds me a little bit like Hurricane Harvey. If you recall that was the one that moved inland and sat for several days dropping record rains in Houston Texas. That was because it was cutoff from the mean flow and just sat there until a trough finally came in and picked him up and pulled him out. Harvey didnt however react with any other system like Henri did first before cutting off from the mean flow.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:25 am

@essexcountypete wrote:Anyone have data on reported storm totals for rainfall? The NWS color graphic is impressive, but I'm looking for reports. TIA!

.Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 800 PM
EDT Sat Aug 21 through 1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 22...

...CONNECTICUT...
LEDYARD CENTER 4 SSE 3.70
NEW LONDON 3.70
NORWICH 3.25
GROTON 2.99
PAWCATUCK 2.39

...MASSACHUSETTS...
BECKET 2.25
PITTSFIELD 1.94
SANDISFIELD 3 S 1.72
EAST OTIS 1.67

...NEW JERSEY...
CRANBURY 8.91
JAMESBURG 8.36
PLAINSBORO TOWNSHIP 7.50
HOPEWELL 0.4 SSW 6.69
HARRISON 6.68
LONG BEACH TWP 1.4 SSE 6.49
HELMETTA 0.1 NE 6.17
JERSEY CITY 5.95
SURF CITY 5.81
SHIP BOTTOM 5.65
STRAFFORD TWP 2.2 NNE 5.25
MCGUIRE AFB 2.15

...NEW YORK...
BROOKLYN 8.03
PROSPECT PARK 7.77
SOUTH SLOPE 7.05
CENTRAL PARK 7.04
LAKE SUCCESS 1 WSW 6.58
MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 6.46
BOERUM HILL 6.16
BATTERY PARK 6.15

...PENNSYLVANIA...
ARDMORE 4.25
NEW HANOVER 2.06
EAGLEVILLE 1.93
BRISTOL 1.86

...RHODE ISLAND...
WESTERLY ARPT 2.73
SOUTH KINGSTOWN 2.48
COVENTRY 2.00
WESTERLY STATE AIRPORT 1.76
WAKEFIELD-PEACEDALE 5.0 SW 1.32
NEWPORT, NEWPORT STATE AIRPORT 1.21
SOUTH KINGSTON 4.3 WSW 1.00
CHARLESTOWN 0.7 E 0.98
WAKEFIELD 0.8 ENE 0.97
PROVIDENCE 0.38 THEODORE GREEN AIRPT

...Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
in the event...

...CONNECTICUT...
STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 55
GROTON ARPT 53
USCG ACADEMY 49
STONINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 48
HARTFORD BRADLEY INTL ARPT 44

...MASSACHUSETTS...
WOODS HOLE 55
MASHPEE 51
WEST ISLAND 51
WELLFLEET 48
BORDEN FLATS LIGHT 47
DUXBURY 47
VINEYARD STATION 46
WEST DENNIS 45

...NEW YORK...
GREAT GULL ISLAND 69
STONY BROOK 53
BAITING HOLLOW 52
ORIENT 1 N 50
SHINNECOCK 49
NAPEAGUE 48

...RHODE ISLAND...
POINT JUDITH 70
UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND 69
HALFWAY ROCK 68
BLOCK ISLAND JETTY 63
NEW SHOREHAM 63


For the latest rainfall forecast and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
associated with Tropical Storm Henri, please refer to
www.wpc.noaa.gov

The next Storm Summary will be issued by the Weather Prediction
Center at 1100 AM EDT. Please refer to your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this event.

Quigley


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:29 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:Anyone have data on reported storm totals for rainfall? The NWS color graphic is impressive, but I'm looking for reports. TIA!

.Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 800 PM
EDT Sat Aug 21 through 1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 22...

...CONNECTICUT...
LEDYARD CENTER 4 SSE                 3.70                    
NEW LONDON                           3.70                    
NORWICH                              3.25                    
GROTON                               2.99                    
PAWCATUCK                            2.39                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
BECKET                               2.25                    
PITTSFIELD                           1.94                    
SANDISFIELD 3 S                      1.72                    
EAST OTIS                            1.67                    

...NEW JERSEY...
CRANBURY                             8.91                    
JAMESBURG                            8.36                    
PLAINSBORO TOWNSHIP                  7.50                    
HOPEWELL 0.4 SSW                     6.69                    
HARRISON                             6.68                    
LONG BEACH TWP 1.4 SSE               6.49                    
HELMETTA 0.1 NE                      6.17                    
JERSEY CITY                          5.95                    
SURF CITY                            5.81                    
SHIP BOTTOM                          5.65                    
STRAFFORD TWP 2.2 NNE                5.25                    
MCGUIRE AFB                          2.15                    

...NEW YORK...
BROOKLYN                             8.03                    
PROSPECT PARK                        7.77                    
SOUTH SLOPE                          7.05                    
CENTRAL PARK                         7.04                    
LAKE SUCCESS 1 WSW                   6.58                    
MIDTOWN MANHATTAN                    6.46                    
BOERUM HILL                          6.16                    
BATTERY PARK                         6.15                    

...PENNSYLVANIA...
ARDMORE                              4.25                    
NEW HANOVER                          2.06                    
EAGLEVILLE                           1.93                    
BRISTOL                              1.86                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
WESTERLY ARPT                        2.73                    
SOUTH KINGSTOWN                      2.48                    
COVENTRY                             2.00                    
WESTERLY STATE AIRPORT               1.76                    
WAKEFIELD-PEACEDALE 5.0 SW           1.32                    
NEWPORT, NEWPORT STATE AIRPORT       1.21                    
SOUTH KINGSTON 4.3 WSW               1.00                    
CHARLESTOWN 0.7 E                    0.98                    
WAKEFIELD 0.8 ENE                    0.97                    
PROVIDENCE                           0.38 THEODORE GREEN AIRPT

...Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
in the event...

...CONNECTICUT...
STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER           55                    
GROTON ARPT                            53                    
USCG ACADEMY                           49                    
STONINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER            48                    
HARTFORD BRADLEY INTL ARPT             44                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
WOODS HOLE                             55                    
MASHPEE                                51                    
WEST ISLAND                            51                    
WELLFLEET                              48                    
BORDEN FLATS LIGHT                     47                    
DUXBURY                                47                    
VINEYARD STATION                       46                    
WEST DENNIS                            45                    

...NEW YORK...
GREAT GULL ISLAND                      69                    
STONY BROOK                            53                    
BAITING HOLLOW                         52                    
ORIENT 1 N                             50                    
SHINNECOCK                             49                    
NAPEAGUE                               48                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
POINT JUDITH                           70                    
UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND             69                    
HALFWAY ROCK                           68                    
BLOCK ISLAND JETTY                     63                    
NEW SHOREHAM                           63                    


For the latest rainfall forecast and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
associated with Tropical Storm Henri, please refer to
www.wpc.noaa.gov

The next Storm Summary will be issued by the Weather Prediction
Center at 1100 AM EDT. Please refer to your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this event.

Quigley


Sorry this is old data. Ill keep searching

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:49 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:Anyone have data on reported storm totals for rainfall? The NWS color graphic is impressive, but I'm looking for reports. TIA!

.Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 800 PM
EDT Sat Aug 21 through 1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 22...

...CONNECTICUT...
LEDYARD CENTER 4 SSE                 3.70                    
NEW LONDON                           3.70                    
NORWICH                              3.25                    
GROTON                               2.99                    
PAWCATUCK                            2.39                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
BECKET                               2.25                    
PITTSFIELD                           1.94                    
SANDISFIELD 3 S                      1.72                    
EAST OTIS                            1.67                    

...NEW JERSEY...
CRANBURY                             8.91                    
JAMESBURG                            8.36                    
PLAINSBORO TOWNSHIP                  7.50                    
HOPEWELL 0.4 SSW                     6.69                    
HARRISON                             6.68                    
LONG BEACH TWP 1.4 SSE               6.49                    
HELMETTA 0.1 NE                      6.17                    
JERSEY CITY                          5.95                    
SURF CITY                            5.81                    
SHIP BOTTOM                          5.65                    
STRAFFORD TWP 2.2 NNE                5.25                    
MCGUIRE AFB                          2.15                    

...NEW YORK...
BROOKLYN                             8.03                    
PROSPECT PARK                        7.77                    
SOUTH SLOPE                          7.05                    
CENTRAL PARK                         7.04                    
LAKE SUCCESS 1 WSW                   6.58                    
MIDTOWN MANHATTAN                    6.46                    
BOERUM HILL                          6.16                    
BATTERY PARK                         6.15                    

...PENNSYLVANIA...
ARDMORE                              4.25                    
NEW HANOVER                          2.06                    
EAGLEVILLE                           1.93                    
BRISTOL                              1.86                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
WESTERLY ARPT                        2.73                    
SOUTH KINGSTOWN                      2.48                    
COVENTRY                             2.00                    
WESTERLY STATE AIRPORT               1.76                    
WAKEFIELD-PEACEDALE 5.0 SW           1.32                    
NEWPORT, NEWPORT STATE AIRPORT       1.21                    
SOUTH KINGSTON 4.3 WSW               1.00                    
CHARLESTOWN 0.7 E                    0.98                    
WAKEFIELD 0.8 ENE                    0.97                    
PROVIDENCE                           0.38 THEODORE GREEN AIRPT

...Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
in the event...

...CONNECTICUT...
STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER           55                    
GROTON ARPT                            53                    
USCG ACADEMY                           49                    
STONINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER            48                    
HARTFORD BRADLEY INTL ARPT             44                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
WOODS HOLE                             55                    
MASHPEE                                51                    
WEST ISLAND                            51                    
WELLFLEET                              48                    
BORDEN FLATS LIGHT                     47                    
DUXBURY                                47                    
VINEYARD STATION                       46                    
WEST DENNIS                            45                    

...NEW YORK...
GREAT GULL ISLAND                      69                    
STONY BROOK                            53                    
BAITING HOLLOW                         52                    
ORIENT 1 N                             50                    
SHINNECOCK                             49                    
NAPEAGUE                               48                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
POINT JUDITH                           70                    
UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND             69                    
HALFWAY ROCK                           68                    
BLOCK ISLAND JETTY                     63                    
NEW SHOREHAM                           63                    


For the latest rainfall forecast and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
associated with Tropical Storm Henri, please refer to
www.wpc.noaa.gov

The next Storm Summary will be issued by the Weather Prediction
Center at 1100 AM EDT. Please refer to your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this event.

Quigley


Sorry this is old data.  Ill keep searching

No, this is great. This covers Saturday night up to 10pm last night, which captures almost the whole storm, for me at least. Thank you!!!
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Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: Tropical Storm HENRI: Discussions and Observations

Post by amugs Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:23 am

Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 E9exnQZXMAkB35l?format=png&name=medium

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Post by Zhukov1945 Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:38 am

@amugs wrote:Tropical Storm HENRI:  Discussions and Observations - Page 3 E9exnQZXMAkB35l?format=png&name=medium

So do NAM and HRRR get the gold with this one (to the extent any model deserves it)? Yes, they were late to latch on to the more easterly track solution, but they absolutely got it right on the left hook and the NJ rain in a way none of the other models iirc got at all...
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Post by rb924119 Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:19 pm

I’ll have some closing thoughts coming over the next day or two, but I would just like to say thank you to everybody for a few things:

1. Your kind words and support for all of us involved in the forecasting process. I’ll expand on this later.

2. Everybody who got involved in the discussion, whether providing analysis, posting updates/observations, and or asking questions. The combination of all of those actions really helped to foster a really great discussion and environment so people could debate, learn, and last but certainly not least, get prepared. The number one mission of a meteorologist is to save life and property, and I think that even though nobody got the track completely correct, I think our ideas and level of alert allowed sufficient time and evidence to prepare for at least a close call. Mission accomplished there.

3. For those of you who quietly followed along, or only sporadically posted, thank you for following us through the entire evolution of this storm. As a forecaster, and maybe the only person crazy enough to go out on the limb as far as I was that this storm was on, I have to admit I was very nervous of raising a false alarm. That’s the one thing, again, as a forecaster, I DON’T want to do. And when I made the first mention of this two Tuesdays ago, and then again last Monday, when I had zero support from anything, I can only imagine what you all were thinking of my ideas at those points lol so thank you for giving me and my ideas a chance, and thank you for following and being a part of the entire process. Your trust, your support, and your enthusiasm are things that I don’t take for granted, and I’m sure I can say the same for all of the other forecasters on this forum. And we do our best to give you the best information we can.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:23 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I’ll have some closing thoughts coming over the next day or two, but I would just like to say thank you to everybody for a few things:

1. Your kind words and support for all of us involved in the forecasting process. I’ll expand on this later.

2. Everybody who got involved in the discussion, whether providing analysis, posting updates/observations, and or asking questions. The combination of all of those actions really helped to foster a really great discussion and environment so people could debate, learn, and last but certainly not least, get prepared. The number one mission of a meteorologist is to save life and property, and I think that even though nobody got the track completely correct, I think our ideas and level of alert allowed sufficient time and evidence to prepare for at least a close call. Mission accomplished there.

3. For those of you who quietly followed along, or only sporadically posted, thank you for following us through the entire evolution of this storm. As a forecaster, and maybe the only person crazy enough to go out on the limb as far as I was that this storm was on, I have to admit I was very nervous of raising a false alarm. That’s the one thing, again, as a forecaster, I DON’T want to do. And when I made the first mention of this two Tuesdays ago, and then again last Monday, when I had zero support from anything, I can only imagine what you all were thinking of my ideas at those points lol so thank you for giving me and my ideas a chance, and thank you for following and being a part of the entire process. Your trust, your support, and your enthusiasm are things that I don’t take for granted, and I’m sure I can say the same for all of the other forecasters on this forum. And we do our best to give you the best information we can.

You got the big picture very, very right when almost no one else was even talking about it, and you got the specifics pretty right even if it ended up being north and east of where you thought...so thank you, it was a very fun ride.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:52 pm

Official event total (starting Saturday night) from my weather station in Westwood, Bergen County 4.74". Confirmed with my glass rain gauge.
Unbelievable!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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