September 2021 Observations and Discussions

amugs wrote:

Cant imagine they survived that. wow, terrible. some of these images are too hard to stomach. The story about the family in queens is so sad.

Think about this for a minute.
If this had hit three to four hours earlier with schools in session and rush hour what things could have been like?

54* this morning I got felt like Fall

amugs wrote:54* this morning I got felt like Fall

It is amazing, 64 here, feels so cold lol, love it.

Wow just what we need tropical downpours....sinkholes have started to open up in yonkers a huge one lake ave. If you know area. It's apparently so deep then needed a drop device to measure. Scary could open up the whole neighborhood.lets hope not.

Humidity/DP this summer may have been the highest since keeping records!
58* this morning gorgeous weather!

The WPC has placed parts of the region in either a slight or marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow afternoon/evening. Between this & the possibility of severe weather, it'll be wise to be mindful of flooding/severe wx watches & warnings during this time. #njwx #nywx #pawx https://t.co/yK73GthQIW pic.twitter.com/uXERCYtQQz

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) September 7, 2021

amugs wrote:

The WPC has placed parts of the region in either a slight or marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow afternoon/evening. Between this & the possibility of severe weather, it'll be wise to be mindful of flooding/severe wx watches & warnings during this time. #njwx #nywx #pawx https://t.co/yK73GthQIW pic.twitter.com/uXERCYtQQz

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) September 7, 2021

NOT GOOD, NOT GOOD AT ALL. Not on same level as last week but this rain is just plain insane. I was driving the saw mill parkway yesterday and you could see the mud line of the trees and it was unbelivable hpow high it was, also many trees knocked over purely by water and probably the rain washing the roots out (plus the gusty winds) The water has since receded but as the WPC says any areas that see 2 inches will be prone to more flooding and many many people have not even close to recovered.

I'm thinking with the saturated ground how any winds will bring down trees. No mention of that in their discussions though. Any thoughts?

Can someone translate this graphic as far as winds for tomorrow night? Haven't learned to read hodographs yet  

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm thinking with the saturated ground how any winds will bring down trees. No mention of that in their discussions though. Any thoughts?

Actually they do discuss a wind threat, and mention the chart you posted.

While hodographs will be favorable for rotating storms, one
mitigating factor may be the warm layer near 700 mb which may
negatively impact low-level buoyancy. That said, lift along the
front may be deep enough to support a supercell threat, and a brief
tornado or two will be possible. Scattered damaging gusts are
expected as storms become linear along the front. Good CAM agreement
exists with increasing storms between 21-00Z from eastern NY into
eastern PA, with maximum storm coverage just after 00Z. The loss of
heating will play a part in limiting the eastward extent of the
severe risk.

Another thing I don’t understand is rainfall estimates. NWS says 3/4 inch to an inch but this means much more rain. Why so far off on rain estimates? Really the same with wind. If on the page it says 10 mph winds, I can easily double that jus as the rain estimates. Right now the sky is blue, and so are you-deep in the heart of the Hudson Valley.

Oh this front means business. Very windy and wpc jystsaid may add a moderate area for flash flooding to nj/pa. And there's potential for tornadoes with pretty high Cape and shear. One week literally to the time!! It is unreal. Wpc said some places could see 3 to 5!!

Most of it looks like it is staying north in NYS and VT. Radar doesn't look impressive yet for NENJ. I didn't see anything recent for here from WPC about that much rain and flooding.

Heaviest rains appeared to mostly miss some of the areas hardest hit by flooding in NJ. Confined along the Jersey Shore and South Jersey where not as much rain fell last week. Looks like a couple cool, Fall-like nights on tap for Friday and Saturday.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

billg315 wrote:Heaviest rains appeared to mostly miss some of the areas hardest hit by flooding in NJ. Confined along the Jersey Shore and South Jersey where not as much rain fell last week. Looks like a couple cool, Fall-like nights on tap for Friday and Saturday.

I can attest that the heaviest rain that we had today was at drop off this morning...lol (teenagers do not carry umbrellas it is not cool...)other than this morning..just a steady on and off rainy day...glad it missed our area!!

Yeah, it was a bit of an odd storm based on what was forecast. We drove from the Shore out to New Brunswick last night right at 5 pm and the rain was hugging that coast for sure! As soon as we headed west via Rte 18, it cleared up instantly. And thank goodness the northern parts were spared any more inundations. The radio weather guy said that the cold front stalled right off the coast but as he was starting to explain what that meant the stupid FM dj started yelling "NERD TALK!!  NERD TALK!!" and so us fellow nerds never got to hear why...

On another note, my TWC 10 day outlook is calling for both highs and lows well above normal for this time of year (especially the nighttime lows). Not complaining cuz its hard to complain about 78-82 degrees with low humidity and a cool breeze. Really hard to complain about that...lol. But, I am ready for my beloved sweater/hoody weather and it looks that will be a tad delayed this year due to a stronger "local summer".

The top image is Hurricane Erin the morning of 9/11 20 yrs ago.  The bottom image is the current Satellite image of Hurricane Larry on the eve of 9/11.  Eerie to say the least

I said this to my students today.

61* and very fall like here tonight

Hello all. It's been a while since I last posted. Hope everyone is doing well. It looks like the rest of September and the start of October will be above normal typical nina summer and early fall pattern. Now what about winter? Still early but it looks like we will have a 2nd year nina (weak and hopefully east based) with a -qbo which should favor HL blocking. Here is latest thoughts from Cosgrove who never hypes cold/snowy winters... 

Some of Larry Cosgrove's latest thoughts concerning the upcoming EPIC snow/cold Winter of 2021-2022!
https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ADgWeB2FI_E
 
At some point, another large, powerful storm like Ida or Larry is going to crack the subtropical high. I would suspect that such a feature would be derived from the African ITCZ family, with two destination threats: the islands rimming the Caribbean Sea and/or the Eastern Seaboard. Using the model ensemble packages as a guide, the last week in September and the first 20-15 days in October would be the target zone. Given the fact that we keep seeing interaction with frontal structures, rather than a "sweep out" function, I am very concerned for the area from Florida to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, back into Appalachia. All of those 1950s analogs scaled up in intensity with warmer oceanic and atmospheric regimes may prove quite bothersome for the eastern quarter of North America. 
 
Keep your eyes on Russia and the Arctic Circle. I am seeing a tendency for closed low or vortex formation in Siberia. If snow and cold start to pile up in that vicinity, ridging will likely follow around the North Pole. That is a negative Arctic Oscillation (-AO) signature. And if the Equatorial Moisture Axis feeding the current Mexican disturbance holds (like it did in 2007-08, any storms in the percolating jet stream along the middle latitudes is going to get juiced in a hurry.
It is too early to make a definitive call for the winter, but I will tell you this: there are many choice ingredients being mixed into the DJFM soup!

Awesome info Al and welcome back!!

[size=14][size=14]Ben Noll

@BenNollWeather[/size]

[/size]
[size=25] Winter 2021-22: the chance for a weaker than normal stratospheric polar vortex has been well-chronicled by climate models

As the season gets closer & the signal persists, it's looking more likely.

Early winter high-latitude blocking could dislodge Arctic air southward...[/size]

So looking at the Monthly temps for September (actual temps Sept 1-15, forecast temps for the next 10 days and then daily averages for the last few days of the month), it looks like we are presently wrapping up 'Summer's Last Stand'.

If I'm correct (and I'm usually not, but I'll press on here anyways), this push into the mid- to hi-80's over the past 4 days (yesterday not as much) gives way to one final week of summer like feel where it will still be humid and hot, but not in the 80's like this week. Then by about next weekend the temps, especially night time temps, really transition to an autumn feel as a result of humidity and wind direction. Daytime temps may linger into the 70's into October, especially further south and by the coast.

Also, I think for most of New Jersey, that will kick off our foliage season.

I love the weather this time of year coming up...very excited.

Sunset in NYC on Friday is at 7:00pm. This is the last time that the sun will set at or after 7:00pm in NYC until March 13th, 2022.

— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) September 16, 2021

amugs wrote:

Sunset in NYC on Friday is at 7:00pm. This is the last time that the sun will set at or after 7:00pm in NYC until March 13th, 2022.

— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) September 16, 2021

The rapidly shrinking daylight hours are always the first thing that puts me in the mood that Fall is officially arriving and summer has expired. The second are those chilly nights. Not that the GFS two weeks out is a lock, but, if the GFS were to hold, the first "freeze" of the year could touch NW NJ by October 2.