September 2021 Observations and Discussions
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
If this had hit three to four hours earlier with schools in session and rush hour what things could have been like?
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
It is amazing, 64 here, feels so cold lol, love it.amugs wrote:54* this morning I got felt like Fall
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
58* this morning gorgeous weather!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
The WPC has placed parts of the region in either a slight or marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow afternoon/evening. Between this & the possibility of severe weather, it'll be wise to be mindful of flooding/severe wx watches & warnings during this time. #njwx #nywx #pawx https://t.co/yK73GthQIW pic.twitter.com/uXERCYtQQz
— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) September 7, 2021
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
NOT GOOD, NOT GOOD AT ALL. Not on same level as last week but this rain is just plain insane. I was driving the saw mill parkway yesterday and you could see the mud line of the trees and it was unbelivable hpow high it was, also many trees knocked over purely by water and probably the rain washing the roots out (plus the gusty winds) The water has since receded but as the WPC says any areas that see 2 inches will be prone to more flooding and many many people have not even close to recovered.amugs wrote:The WPC has placed parts of the region in either a slight or marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow afternoon/evening. Between this & the possibility of severe weather, it'll be wise to be mindful of flooding/severe wx watches & warnings during this time. #njwx #nywx #pawx https://t.co/yK73GthQIW pic.twitter.com/uXERCYtQQz
— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) September 7, 2021
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
Actually they do discuss a wind threat, and mention the chart you posted.Dunnzoo wrote:I'm thinking with the saturated ground how any winds will bring down trees. No mention of that in their discussions though. Any thoughts?
While hodographs will be favorable for rotating storms, one
mitigating factor may be the warm layer near 700 mb which may
negatively impact low-level buoyancy. That said, lift along the
front may be deep enough to support a supercell threat, and a brief
tornado or two will be possible. Scattered damaging gusts are
expected as storms become linear along the front. Good CAM agreement
exists with increasing storms between 21-00Z from eastern NY into
eastern PA, with maximum storm coverage just after 00Z. The loss of
heating will play a part in limiting the eastward extent of the
severe risk.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
Last edited by dkodgis on Wed Sep 08, 2021 8:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
I can attest that the heaviest rain that we had today was at drop off this morning...lol (teenagers do not carry umbrellas it is not cool...)other than this morning..just a steady on and off rainy day...glad it missed our area!!billg315 wrote:Heaviest rains appeared to mostly miss some of the areas hardest hit by flooding in NJ. Confined along the Jersey Shore and South Jersey where not as much rain fell last week. Looks like a couple cool, Fall-like nights on tap for Friday and Saturday.
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
weatherwatchermom wrote:billg315 wrote:Heaviest rains appeared to mostly miss some of the areas hardest hit by flooding in NJ. Confined along the Jersey Shore and South Jersey where not as much rain fell last week. Looks like a couple cool, Fall-like nights on tap for Friday and Saturday.
I can attest that the heaviest rain that we had today was at drop off this morning...lol (teenagers do not carry umbrellas it is not cool...)other than this morning..just a steady on and off rainy day...glad it missed our area!!
Yeah, it was a bit of an odd storm based on what was forecast. We drove from the Shore out to New Brunswick last night right at 5 pm and the rain was hugging that coast for sure! As soon as we headed west via Rte 18, it cleared up instantly. And thank goodness the northern parts were spared any more inundations. The radio weather guy said that the cold front stalled right off the coast but as he was starting to explain what that meant the stupid FM dj started yelling "NERD TALK!! NERD TALK!!" and so us fellow nerds never got to hear why...
On another note, my TWC 10 day outlook is calling for both highs and lows well above normal for this time of year (especially the nighttime lows). Not complaining cuz its hard to complain about 78-82 degrees with low humidity and a cool breeze. Really hard to complain about that...lol. But, I am ready for my beloved sweater/hoody weather and it looks that will be a tad delayed this year due to a stronger "local summer".
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
61* and very fall like here tonight
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
Some of Larry Cosgrove's latest thoughts concerning the upcoming EPIC snow/cold Winter of 2021-2022!
https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ADgWeB2FI_E
At some point, another large, powerful storm like Ida or Larry is going to crack the subtropical high. I would suspect that such a feature would be derived from the African ITCZ family, with two destination threats: the islands rimming the Caribbean Sea and/or the Eastern Seaboard. Using the model ensemble packages as a guide, the last week in September and the first 20-15 days in October would be the target zone. Given the fact that we keep seeing interaction with frontal structures, rather than a "sweep out" function, I am very concerned for the area from Florida to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, back into Appalachia. All of those 1950s analogs scaled up in intensity with warmer oceanic and atmospheric regimes may prove quite bothersome for the eastern quarter of North America.
Keep your eyes on Russia and the Arctic Circle. I am seeing a tendency for closed low or vortex formation in Siberia. If snow and cold start to pile up in that vicinity, ridging will likely follow around the North Pole. That is a negative Arctic Oscillation (-AO) signature. And if the Equatorial Moisture Axis feeding the current Mexican disturbance holds (like it did in 2007-08, any storms in the percolating jet stream along the middle latitudes is going to get juiced in a hurry.
It is too early to make a definitive call for the winter, but I will tell you this: there are many choice ingredients being mixed into the DJFM soup!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
Mugs that red and orange right over us . This storm is wicked..we lost power...and the batteries died in my weather station..darn it..my husband said he would change them next Saturday and we get a wicked storm I can't track ..lolamugs wrote:Awesome info Al and welcome back!!
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
[size=14][size=14]Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather[/size]
[/size]
[size=25] Winter 2021-22: the chance for a weaker than normal stratospheric polar vortex has been well-chronicled by climate models
As the season gets closer & the signal persists, it's looking more likely.
Early winter high-latitude blocking could dislodge Arctic air southward...[/size]
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
If I'm correct (and I'm usually not, but I'll press on here anyways), this push into the mid- to hi-80's over the past 4 days (yesterday not as much) gives way to one final week of summer like feel where it will still be humid and hot, but not in the 80's like this week. Then by about next weekend the temps, especially night time temps, really transition to an autumn feel as a result of humidity and wind direction. Daytime temps may linger into the 70's into October, especially further south and by the coast.
Also, I think for most of New Jersey, that will kick off our foliage season.
I love the weather this time of year coming up...very excited.
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
Sunset in NYC on Friday is at 7:00pm. This is the last time that the sun will set at or after 7:00pm in NYC until March 13th, 2022.
— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) September 16, 2021
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: September 2021 Observations and Discussions
amugs wrote:Sunset in NYC on Friday is at 7:00pm. This is the last time that the sun will set at or after 7:00pm in NYC until March 13th, 2022.
— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) September 16, 2021
The rapidly shrinking daylight hours are always the first thing that puts me in the mood that Fall is officially arriving and summer has expired. The second are those chilly nights. Not that the GFS two weeks out is a lock, but, if the GFS were to hold, the first "freeze" of the year could touch NW NJ by October 2.
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