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Long Range Discussion 22.0

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heehaw453
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by frank 638 Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:16 pm

@amugs wrote:Argghh PDO and La Nina coming on strong

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Fbcdfj10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Fbcdyc10
is this good news for snow lovers

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:27 am

@amugs wrote:Argghh PDO and La Nina coming on strong

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Fbcdfj10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Fbcdyc10

Mmhmm, but it’s still early. Let’s see what this picture looks like December 1st.


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Post by amugs Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:02 am

@frank 638 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Argghh PDO and La Nina coming on strong

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Fbcdfj10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Fbcdyc10
is this good news for snow lovers

Not great at this BUT we may have the PV on our side if the descent of the upper winds continue in their projected path. Also, have to see what the Meridional Jet has to say this winter as well.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:27 pm

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 C79c5510

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:31 pm


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:17 am

Doc, you'd better buy that hat off of Amazon.
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:13 pm

PV disruption by this heat flux chart

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 FBhKJPNXEAIE1HH?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:49 pm

December to Remember???? Fast start to winter maybe happening perfectly as we step down in Nov. Late October we start to see this trend.


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Post by amugs Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:36 am

Through Feb on this model - take with a grain of salt at this juncture

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 FBvDzaSUUAk756z?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:18 pm

JB honkin of FASt start to winter.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:24 am

Weeklies but look at how deep some of those troughs are in November as they swing through.

From 33&Rain wx bd
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 10_18_2021_Euro.Weeklies.500Mb.1.gif.a0eecfa57a6c914fcde919dfd5d0a17d

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:30 am

OUCH!!!
Get use to the wild weather peeps it is going to ramp up around the world and be with us for years to come as we are in this Grand Solar Minimum state of the sun.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Image.png.4ed297cf23ead8841905c76d88f5b09d


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:43 am

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Image.png.f1062c7b91344770961e3a336d49a623

This is what seems to be setting up in the PAC
From Eastern Mass Wx Blog

Ben Noll



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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:45 pm

Here it comes peeps the flip with a weak Polar Vortex = cold and early winter chances increase.


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:09 am

@amugs wrote:Here it comes peeps the flip with a weak Polar Vortex = cold and early winter chances increase.


With any long range forecasted pattern changes the proof will be in the pudding.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Post by aiannone Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:27 pm

Steve D's winter forecast:
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2021/10/20/the-2021-2022-winter-forecast-the-chaos-of-a-polar-vortex-disruption/
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Post by dkodgis Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:12 pm

Even a popular (not a professional meteorological source) source is in on the action: the NY Post. It is catching on the other shoe is going to drop
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:04 pm

They all jumping on board for what I've been posting about - early winter and fast start.
I'll take a weakened polar vortex for $1000 Alex!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:13 pm

And then there’s Judah Cohen


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 0.00 
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:34 am

Ooofa CFS!!! As some in teh pro met world call it the "Crap Forecasting System"!



Keep that MJO phase over the IO and we'll be in good shape through winter

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 NCPE_phase_21m_small

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Combined_image


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:39 am

From OHweather - pro met on 33nrain wx board

Interesting take:
I like that the strongest cooling this month has been in regions 1+2 and 3, as 4 warms slightly. Steady cooling in 3.4. A trend towards either a basin wide or east-based La Nina, away from Modoki. The sub-surface loop implies this trend continues in the near future. Staying away from that central Pacific or Modoki La Nina look is a good thing for -NAO prospects this winter...

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 553132669_Ninoregions.png.6218c292162f3dd7b0f28746f1d69fe1


Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 1280114956_tdepth2.png.ea2396af0e428a267ce9dc2e36b2fde8

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 1034296002_tdepthloop.gif.10c32c4d49e81bcdcc76d743d8771c16

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Ep-cp-analogs.png.1a839b42dac2f5f5851d65519778b099

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:03 pm

Strong La Nina - temps go along with it since the oceans aid in controlling the land temperature

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 FCO4XFRWQAca9lp?format=jpg&name=medium


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:03 pm

NOAA being NOAA and going with a standard La Nina pattern forecast


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:10 am

The early start to winter forecast that Mugs and other LR Mets have been citing is gaining momentum, as both the GEFS and EPS show west based -NAO developing toward the very end of this month.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_36

The EPS is a bit more bullish on flipping the heights across NPAC from negative to positive. With the MJO suppressed and Strat PV in a weakened state (see below) - conditions seem to favor a pretty cold start to November. How long that lasts and whether or not it leads to our first snow of the season remains to be seen.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 U-65-N-10hpa

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:04 pm

Look at the decent of the winds - WOWZA at the upper levels which affect the PV, blocking and the weather pattern

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 2 65N_10hpa_gefs.png.405a9331d60bf3565d8b5a61dd2f2d1e




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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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