Long Range Discussion 22.0
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frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Some really interesting trends in U.S. weather patterns as we head into November...
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 11, 2021
Warm eastern ridge goes poleward, +PNA ridge pops along the West Coast by ~November 10th.If I was in a snow day pool, I'd be going earlier than normal — could be an abrupt start to winter
pic.twitter.com/knMFi1E2Q7
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
5 major late Oct stratwarms argue strongly for alot of cold from Thanksgiving to New Years this year.(1950,1968,1985,1989,2010). Its like a cage match in the WWE ( world weather entertainment) which raises the question what are you going to do, if the stratwarm runs wild over you pic.twitter.com/2VfaFDnh7H
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) October 13, 2021
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
https://t.co/kvqB5rsu2Z has been all in on a fast start to winter since late last spring Rare mid autumn stratwarm has amazing correlations backing us up. 10mb GEFS temp looks like blend of 8 strong samples, all resulting in cold evolving Nov into Dec pic.twitter.com/4VocD35psG
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) October 15, 2021
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
From 33&Rain wx bd

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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Get use to the wild weather peeps it is going to ramp up around the world and be with us for years to come as we are in this Grand Solar Minimum state of the sun.

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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

This is what seems to be setting up in the PAC
From Eastern Mass Wx Blog
Ben Noll
Making some graphics for this week's WMO @pacific_rcc Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 19, 2021
Comparing last October with this October, one constant is La Niña, but there are important differences!
The PDO has flipped& the Coral Sea is much warmer
Oct 2020Oct 2021 pic.twitter.com/ooF4V26YHS
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
A pattern flip in the Gulf of Alaska looks to change things up for North America in November.
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 19, 2021
Continued ridging and relative warmth () in the eastern U.S. for the next little while, but a change looms in 3-4 weeks time (
).
A relatively weak polar vortex is also indicated. pic.twitter.com/cYZatiUlHL
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
amugs wrote:Here it comes peeps the flip with a weak Polar Vortex = cold and early winter chances increase.A pattern flip in the Gulf of Alaska looks to change things up for North America in November.
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 19, 2021
Continued ridging and relative warmth () in the eastern U.S. for the next little while, but a change looms in 3-4 weeks time (
).
A relatively weak polar vortex is also indicated. pic.twitter.com/cYZatiUlHL
With any long range forecasted pattern changes the proof will be in the pudding.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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amugs likes this post
Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2021/10/20/the-2021-2022-winter-forecast-the-chaos-of-a-polar-vortex-disruption/
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
I'll take a weakened polar vortex for $1000 Alex!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
The MJO phase plot may not look very active but there's plenty going on under the hood!
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 21, 2021
La Niña is suppressing convection across the Pacific while an MJO pulse treks into Africa/Indian Ocean next month.
November = changes in the U.S. (less warm) as the Pacific jet steps back. pic.twitter.com/yvGqyuErKD
Keep that MJO phase over the IO and we'll be in good shape through winter


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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Interesting take:
I like that the strongest cooling this month has been in regions 1+2 and 3, as 4 warms slightly. Steady cooling in 3.4. A trend towards either a basin wide or east-based La Nina, away from Modoki. The sub-surface loop implies this trend continues in the near future. Staying away from that central Pacific or Modoki La Nina look is a good thing for -NAO prospects this winter...




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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0
Just in: U.S. #WinterOutlook --> @NOAA forecast favors drier, warmer conditions across Southern tier of U.S. & wetter, cooler conditions for parts of North.
— NOAA Communications (@NOAAComms) October 21, 2021
News release: https://t.co/4OH6UWujdK @NWS @NWSCPC #Winter pic.twitter.com/UnlvTl6rJL
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0


The EPS is a bit more bullish on flipping the heights across NPAC from negative to positive. With the MJO suppressed and Strat PV in a weakened state (see below) - conditions seem to favor a pretty cold start to November. How long that lasts and whether or not it leads to our first snow of the season remains to be seen.

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Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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