Long Range Discussion 22.0

Nov may get interesting but what does that mean for Dec and Jan? Recovery of the PV usually but can we just weaken it, knock it around a bunch and keep it this way for a duration of time this winter?? Remains to be seen.

Argghh PDO and La Nina coming on strong

amugs wrote:Argghh PDO and La Nina coming on strong

Mmhmm, but it’s still early. Let’s see what this picture looks like December 1st.

frank 638 wrote:

amugs wrote:Argghh PDO and La Nina coming on strong

is this good news for snow lovers

Not great at this BUT we may have the PV on our side if the descent of the upper winds continue in their projected path. Also, have to see what the Meridional Jet has to say this winter as well.

Some really interesting trends in U.S. weather patterns as we head into November...

Warm eastern ridge goes poleward, +PNA ridge pops along the West Coast by ~November 10th.

If I was in a snow day pool, I'd be going earlier than normal — could be an abrupt start to winter pic.twitter.com/knMFi1E2Q7

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 11, 2021

Doc, you'd better buy that hat off of Amazon.

PV disruption by this heat flux chart

December to Remember???? Fast start to winter maybe happening perfectly as we step down in Nov. Late October we start to see this trend.

5 major late Oct stratwarms argue strongly for alot of cold from Thanksgiving to New Years this year.(1950,1968,1985,1989,2010). Its like a cage match in the WWE ( world weather entertainment) which raises the question what are you going to do, if the stratwarm runs wild over you pic.twitter.com/2VfaFDnh7H

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) October 13, 2021

Through Feb on this model - take with a grain of salt at this juncture

JB honkin of FASt start to winter.

https://t.co/kvqB5rsu2Z has been all in on a fast start to winter since late last spring Rare mid autumn stratwarm has amazing correlations backing us up. 10mb GEFS temp looks like blend of 8 strong samples, all resulting in cold evolving Nov into Dec pic.twitter.com/4VocD35psG

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) October 15, 2021

Weeklies but look at how deep some of those troughs are in November as they swing through.

From 33&Rain wx bd

OUCH!!!
Get use to the wild weather peeps it is going to ramp up around the world and be with us for years to come as we are in this Grand Solar Minimum state of the sun.

This is what seems to be setting up in the PAC
From Eastern Mass Wx Blog

Ben Noll

Making some graphics for this week's WMO @pacific_rcc Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum

Comparing last October with this October, one constant is La Niña, but there are important differences!

The PDO has flipped & the Coral Sea is much warmer

Oct 2020 Oct 2021 pic.twitter.com/ooF4V26YHS

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 19, 2021

Here it comes peeps the flip with a weak Polar Vortex = cold and early winter chances increase.

A pattern flip in the Gulf of Alaska looks to change things up for North America in November.

Continued ridging and relative warmth () in the eastern U.S. for the next little while, but a change looms in 3-4 weeks time ().

A relatively weak polar vortex is also indicated. pic.twitter.com/cYZatiUlHL

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 19, 2021

amugs wrote:Here it comes peeps the flip with a weak Polar Vortex = cold and early winter chances increase.

A pattern flip in the Gulf of Alaska looks to change things up for North America in November.

Continued ridging and relative warmth () in the eastern U.S. for the next little while, but a change looms in 3-4 weeks time ().

A relatively weak polar vortex is also indicated. pic.twitter.com/cYZatiUlHL

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 19, 2021

With any long range forecasted pattern changes the proof will be in the pudding.

Steve D's winter forecast:
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2021/10/20/the-2021-2022-winter-forecast-the-chaos-of-a-polar-vortex-disruption/

Even a popular (not a professional meteorological source) source is in on the action: the NY Post. It is catching on the other shoe is going to drop

They all jumping on board for what I've been posting about - early winter and fast start.
I'll take a weakened polar vortex for $1000 Alex!!

And then there’s Judah Cohen

Ooofa CFS!!! As some in teh pro met world call it the "Crap Forecasting System"!

The MJO phase plot may not look very active but there's plenty going on under the hood!

La Niña is suppressing convection across the Pacific while an MJO pulse treks into Africa/Indian Ocean next month.

November = changes in the U.S. (less warm) as the Pacific jet steps back. pic.twitter.com/yvGqyuErKD

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 21, 2021

Keep that MJO phase over the IO and we'll be in good shape through winter

From OHweather - pro met on 33nrain wx board

Interesting take:
I like that the strongest cooling this month has been in regions 1+2 and 3, as 4 warms slightly. Steady cooling in 3.4. A trend towards either a basin wide or east-based La Nina, away from Modoki. The sub-surface loop implies this trend continues in the near future. Staying away from that central Pacific or Modoki La Nina look is a good thing for -NAO prospects this winter...

Strong La Nina - temps go along with it since the oceans aid in controlling the land temperature

NOAA being NOAA and going with a standard La Nina pattern forecast

Just in: U.S. #WinterOutlook --> @NOAA forecast favors drier, warmer conditions across Southern tier of U.S. & wetter, cooler conditions for parts of North.

News release: https://t.co/4OH6UWujdK @NWS @NWSCPC #Winter pic.twitter.com/UnlvTl6rJL

— NOAA Communications (@NOAAComms) October 21, 2021

The early start to winter forecast that Mugs and other LR Mets have been citing is gaining momentum, as both the GEFS and EPS show west based -NAO developing toward the very end of this month.





The EPS is a bit more bullish on flipping the heights across NPAC from negative to positive. With the MJO suppressed and Strat PV in a weakened state (see below) - conditions seem to favor a pretty cold start to November. How long that lasts and whether or not it leads to our first snow of the season remains to be seen.

Look at the decent of the winds - WOWZA at the upper levels which affect the PV, blocking and the weather pattern