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Long Range Discussion 22.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:06 am

EPS still looking tasty in the long range. GFS is nowhere near this amplified. The EURO has a bias to overdo it sometimes so let’s wait and see what happens.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:16 am

Backs it up here Frank yesterday!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Screenshot_20211024-203315_Chrome.jpg.72c1fb92571b602a12b03aa7e7d8c128

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:04 pm

The upper level map looks ominous for another nor'easter this weekend, but at the surface it's not much to worry about. The upper level energy isn't consolidated at the base of the trough so we're left with a fairly weak LP entering our area. Looking at about 1" of rain, but we'll see if that changes. That is an impressive block and trough nonetheless.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_16

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:07 pm

After this weekend we are looking at very impressive blocking on the Pacific side which allows a trough to settle in over the eastern-third of the country. Definitely an early start to winter indicator...

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_30

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:11 pm

I found this interesting... if the blocking pattern taking shape in the troposphere comes to fruition, it will press on the SPV and possibly lead to a SSW at some point in December. A lot will depend on what happens with the MJO...


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:36 pm

La Niña winter is looking more and more likely. A La Niña base state - especially a strong one - kinda stinks for our area. Unless it’s offset by a favorable SSW, which given the nature of the current SPV and QBO it’s possible

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 7c826710

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:56 am

Dr Cohen says colder weather ahead from these charts - Stratospheric warming in teh orangy colors coupled down to the Polar Vortex Arctic Region to help release the colder air

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 FCtb7vgXMAgqbLk?format=png&name=4096x4096

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:57 am


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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:26 am

@amugs wrote:Dr Cohen says colder weather ahead from these charts - Stratospheric warming in teh orangy colors coupled down to the Polar Vortex Arctic Region to help release the colder air

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 FCtb7vgXMAgqbLk?format=png&name=4096x4096

The warming in November is correlated directly back to the Wave 2 warming happening at the Trop

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:53 pm

Pattern in the first 7 days of November is setting up for the first significant snow of the season central to upstate NY. There’s a chance those N&W of NYC in our region see their first snow as well. I’m not yet confident in anything for the coast but obviously very early for that to change. Regardless, the pressure put on the SPV only means good things down the line for us. Just don’t want to see La Niña takeover completely

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:22 pm

This is gonna snow bigly interior and ski areas. Lake Effect take over bigly as well.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 FCyhL47XsAM_aYI?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:14 pm

Just need this not a split but a disruption - elongation is all I want for xmas!!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 FC3kZjMWUAI82Y6?format=png&name=4096x4096

And it is showing this

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:51 pm

From Larry Cosgrove on winter. Tony posted on 33 n Rain wx board

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Screenshot_20211029-104823_Facebook.jpg.f07c630637d04dce784b2a89930f30b9

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Post by amugs Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:40 pm


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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 30, 2021 5:29 pm

Got another 0.8” rain overnight and another 0.4” today bringing the total to 1.2”. Between last night today and the his past Tuesday my total is 7.8” of rain in the past 5 days. I have to admit, the rain all day has been perfect. Been making a beef stew, drinking beer, watching the islanders and college football all day. Love this time of year. I do wish today had just a little more crisp in the air though. Temps have been in the mid to upper 50’s all day.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 B34dc610

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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:30 pm

Hey mugs. Any rumblings on any of the other sites you follow on when Tom’s (Isotherm’s) winter outlook might come out? Last year I believe it was the first week or two of November.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 31, 2021 4:27 pm

Yes he is supposed to release by mid month if not sooner. I'll post here or he'll post it.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 01, 2021 7:58 am

@sroc4 wrote:Good morning everyone.  Its about this time that we begin to look at the Siberian/Eurasian snow cover.  Between about now through the end of Oct/November, the snow growth rate and persistent snow cover in this area has been shown to have a relationship in determining the state of the Arctic Oscillation(AO) during the winter months.  The more rapid the snow growth rate and the expansiveness of the snow cover over Siberia/northern Eurasia during this time frame, the stronger the correlation with a negative AO during winter months seems to be.  As far as my understanding, the idea behind this is that a rapid expanse of snow cover over this extremely large region acts as a giant mirror if you will.  A white blanket of snow acts to reflect a large amount of sunlight back up into the atmosphere over the arctic.  On a smaller scale this reflective light is why its easy to get a sun burn on the ski slopes on a sunny day in the dead of winter.  This reflected sunlight back up into the atmosphere on such a large scale can influence the temperature and pressure patterns over the Arctic regions at various levels of the atmosphere.  A negative AO means the tendency is to form "blocking" domes of high pressure in the northern latitudes, particularly over the arctic circle, which tends to favor the discharge of cold arctic air masses into the southern latitudes.  

Keep in mind Siberian/Eurasian snow cover during the fall is only one piece to the complex puzzle that comes together to determine the winter pattern over the short and longer term.  In addition the exact relationship of the snow cover and the AO state is still not fully understood.  Other oscillations(QBO, NAO, EPO, PNA to name a few), large scale sea surface temp patterns, and stratospheric temps, etc all come together to determine the final outcome of the pattern.  Within any given year these varying factors all may play larger or smaller roles in determining the outcome.  

Anyway here is the current snow cover anomalies for the northern hemisphere with purple colors above normal snow fall for this time of year, red below and white normal.  

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Siberi12

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Siberi15
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Siberi16


Here is a quick update on the past 5-6 weeks for Siberian snow growth.  See above for its relevance.  Images bove are Sept 20th, Oct 12th, and Oct 31st.  Overall North American snow growth has been pretty abysmal while Siberian snow growth has been about normal with southern portions of the Eurasian continent below normal.  Overall Im not sure how much real influence this aspect will have over the Strat and AO this year.  

A little more disconcerting is the MJO.  about 7-10days ago or so it was forecast to move out of the Null phase; into phases 8, 1, 2, which tend to favor troughyness and normal to below normal temps into the Eastern third of the country; however, that no longer appears to be the case.  Instead it appears it has put on the breaks, and will instead remerge with an MJO pulse back out into the warmer phases of 4, 5, and 6.  It isn't uncommon to see the MJO recycle itself in similar phases unless other big picture influences can cause a shift.  As you can see below late sept through Mid Oct the MJO pulse traversed through phases 4-6 before returning into the center where it has been for the past two weeks or so.  

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Ecmf_m10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Gfs_mj10

Regarding phases 4, 5, and 6:

MJO Temp composites for Oct/Nov/Dec (OND) compared to the Nov/Dec/Jan(NDJ) does differ with the former still having a tendency for troughs into the SE and our area being on the boundary for abve vs below normal temps.  Compared to NDJ These phases are an all out torch for our area.  

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Mjo_on10
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Mjo_nd10

The next week or two should feel nice but concern is beyond that that the temps "MAY" go back to above normal on avg.  The strat is your wild card as is always.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:36 am

In addition also seeing Nina trend stronger and mean zonal winds in the Stratosphere trend stronger.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Nino34

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Tminn_50_current_merra2

Some pretty ugly signs lately...


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Pattern in the first 7 days of November is setting up for the first significant snow of the season central to upstate NY. There’s a chance those N&W of NYC in our region see their first snow as well. I’m not yet confident in anything for the coast but obviously very early for that to change. Regardless, the pressure put on the SPV only means good things down the line for us. Just don’t want to see La Niña takeover completely

Update since my last post:
*AO still on track to go negative
*Our area will experience colder than normal temps over next 3-7 days because of AO (see map below)
*No real significant snow forecasted in NE region despite the cold air
*For the most part, our area will return to seasonal or slightly above seasonal temps after this mini cold outbreak because we're not seeing cooperation on the Pacific side - likely due to emerging Nina/MJO
*GEFS shows return to colder than normal weather as -NAO tries to develop

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_3


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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:10 am

This is always fun to do.  Below is the long range ensemble forecasts for both GEFS and Euro ENS depicting the mean 500mb height anomalies, valid 00z November 17th(15days from now)  Notice the most prominent feature on both maps is the dark blues south of the Aleutian Islands.  IF true this would lead to ridging along the West coast of NA; in turn troughing would be favored in the east.  This would def lead to BN air masses and early snow chances; esp for the interior....if true.    

Now make sure we keep expectations in check as this is 15days out, and as I pointed out above, if the MJO forecasts come to fruition there will be resistance in the atmosphere.  It will be interesting to see how it evolves.  Ill try and post updated snap shots of the evolution as we go along.  

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Gfs-en21
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-65

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:17 pm



Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Fdqcxo10



Hugo is very good at QBO and SSW events like last year. Intriguing

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:32 pm


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Post by amugs Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:10 am

EURO showing a weak PV which would be good news for this upcoming winter
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 3 Fdv7uy10

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Post by amugs Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:05 pm




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