Long Range Discussion 22.0

I rarely post, but read all the time. You guys do a great job breaking down each and every storm threat, and I am very happy I found this forum years ago.

Just wanted to tell all the people here ( which I assume is everyone) not to worry at all about the models for Saturdays storm, because the only model you need to know is I am going away for a week this Thursday, and that in itself guarantees a major snowstorm, so enjoy the storm tracking, and don't sweat it. its a lock. I just hope I get to experience at least 1 blizzard this winter, and deff wont complain if their are many more.

Hello gang

I have been insane busy. Trying to catch up as much as possible, looks like something interesting for this weekend.

We track.

Hey so if this storm happens what is the suspected time frame? I plan to be in CT and returning Sat morning, or should I be planning to leave Friday evening or even Friday morning? Last thing I want to do is be driving in a big storm. Again just trying err on cautious side in case it does happen.

Looks like Friday PM on latest Euro into Saturday so I guess I would want to leave by Friday morning?

Big difference at h5 compared to 18z



It's not even close

jmanley32 wrote:Hey so if this storm happens what is the suspected time frame? I plan to be in CT and returning Sat morning, or should I be planning to leave Friday evening or even Friday morning? Last thing I want to do is be driving in a big storm. Again just trying err on cautious side in case it does happen.

Go Friday

Snow88 wrote:Big difference at h5 compared to 18z



It's not even close

Yup, it has trended in the Euros direction over the last several runs. If the GEFS also improve, and the EURO holds tonight, chances of a storm will go up dramatically.

00z GEFS now show a partial phase between both streams whereas before they were separated. So, nod to the EURO. Verrry interesting EURO run tonight

Frank_Wx wrote:

Snow88 wrote:Big difference at h5 compared to 18z



It's not even close

Yup, it has trended in the Euros direction over the last several runs. If the GEFS also improve, and the EURO holds tonight, chances of a storm will go up dramatically.

Doesn't not even close mean not good if we want a storm? Or what way am I supposed to take that? Yeah I am gonna leave early friday morning and be back in time for work. Sounds like this is gaining some ground hopefully.

OHHH I see, the 00z is much better than 18z meaning the 00z is not even close to 18z in a good direction.

EURO holds serve yet slower. Snow starts Saturday morning. All other overnight model ensembles are west.

GFS doesn't dig nearly as much on the trough.  I think the Euro is digging too much and creating a stronger storm which is delaying the storm's northward progression.  Somewhere in the middle maybe closer to reality.  In any event there is not unlimited space in the atmosphere.  The Euro ULL got kicked off the coast by another system to the west partially because it dug further and was a bit delayed.  Again with an active pattern like this there is most likely going to be a faster progression.  If I continue to see that idea in future runs this will be a coastal thing threat.

As has already been stated GFS took huge strides towards the euro. We now have phasing or at least partial phasing between the northern S/W and the southern piece. Last night I showed how the gfs left the southern energy behind. As of 00z, and again 06z it’s bringing it along. Again it’s a not nearly as strong of a phases as the euro but it doesn’t have to be just yet.

Again nice changes aloft on the gfs towards the euro soln.

Euro last night held in showing a monster storm for this weekend

The 06Z Euro would have been a better run IMO w.r.t. to northward progression.  Confluence is a bit further north and was a better latitude at same time.  I think this would have hammered further northward than 00Z.

06Z


00Z

FWIW the rgem could have been a bomb if extended with this look.  Similar to the euro

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro last night held in showing a monster storm for this weekend

A bit of a southern lean to this. Are we trending toward more of an ‘equitable’ geographic snowfall distribution this winter?

There are definite signs of it. Of course, NNJ, LHV, and LI are simply better climatory spots for consistent action. But for the Shore and certainly for southern Jersey and the mid-Atlantic, this winter already has been noticeably more active and fun than each of the last 3 winters.  And if the weekend storm delivers than it will already be more snowfall then the last 3 winters COMBINED!

Question do you think it’s safe for me to go Long Island on Saturday in the afternoon I have a baby shower to go to I’m not sure if the storm is going to happen or not I know things are always changing

frank 638 wrote:Question do you think it’s safe for me to go Long Island on Saturday in the afternoon I have a baby shower to go to I’m not sure if the storm is going to happen or not I know things are always changing

Too early to tell just need to stay informed on storm trends

Nam upper levels trending more towards the Euro.

Frank_Wx wrote:

frank 638 wrote:Question do you think it’s safe for me to go Long Island on Saturday in the afternoon I have a baby shower to go to I’m not sure if the storm is going to happen or not I know things are always changing

Too early to tell just need to stay informed on storm trends

thank u frank

One thing working in the favor of snow lovers on the coast is this upper level jet streak - assuming that at least some phasing and amplification occurs. This is exactly what you want to see for the expansion of precipitation well away from the surface low center. pic.twitter.com/FnoT2Pagmt

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) January 18, 2022

The JET streak can help and aid in th expansion of the precipitation lift and enhance its northward propagation. A stronger jet as being shown on teh EURO and NOW 12Z NAM shows this very nicely.
Thursday's storm have impacts on Saturday is possible - so much energy flying around its quite hard to understand what the models are keying on.

12Z GFS continues to improve on the H5 but it's just not there yet. It has to eject the s/s s/w more and the trough dig a bit more. That interaction is 72 hours out, so I just want to see improvements each run at this point and the 12Z was another step IMO.

The 12Z GFS is focusing on the wrong s/w IMO with regard to the phase.  And I'm NOT surprised of that as the board was really busy.  Once it reconciles the s/w interaction I think it'll look Euro like.

GFS does depict a coastal storm but not until Sunday which fringes the area.

I know this may be an annoying question, and I know in general in order to get a big costal storm everything has to come together just right, but given the current set up with the atmospheric conditions we have, is a major storm , or even just a moderate impact storm likely, or is the set up unlikely to come together