Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

Many corroborating Ens members as well.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

Back in the king Euro days I’d be jacked, but since it’s upgrade the model has been inconsistent. The 12z run peaked my interest and it’s a plausible scenario, but I’m not all in until I see more model support.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:45 pm

The GFS was not far off nor was the Canadian. Encouraging the ensembles are also close. Let’s see let’s see…

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

Image please of system at least (of course we would love to see clown snow maps...or may be not clow man maps, fingers crossed but def need several runs showing this b4 getting excited? I love it when you post that meme lol

by **hyde345** Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

Image please of system at least (of course we would love to see clown snow maps...or may be not clow man maps, fingers crossed but def need several runs showing this b4 getting excited? I love it when you post that meme lol

Below is image of Euro storm this weekend. I wouldn't get too excited just yet. A lot of things have to work out for it to happen.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 29 Pratep10

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:23 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

Image please of system at least (of course we would love to see clown snow maps...or may be not clow man maps, fingers crossed but def need several runs showing this b4 getting excited? I love it when you post that meme lol

Below is image of Euro storm this weekend. I wouldn't get too excited just yet. A lot of things have to work out for it to happen.

Oh I am not get my hopes up yet trust me. But that is beautiful.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:48 pm

Irish wrote:
amugs wrote:Money shot. That is a beautiful 500 mb evolution peeps. This would be a BIGLY storm ....if it happens. Friday into Sat.

And here we go... are we at serious tracking mode yet?

I wouldn't bite on this yet. Need more support from its ensembles and other guidance. But the models at least are dancing to the same song. They just have to start to show they are dancing in sync which right now not there.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:02 pm

Accuweather honking kind of early...

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 29 Accuwe14

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Accuweather honking kind of early...

I saw online Lee Goldberg mention the possibility of a storm but gave it a low probablity.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:08 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Accuweather honking kind of early...

I saw online Lee Goldberg mention the possibility of a storm but gave it a low probablity.

Gotta love th early KOD damn accuwx. Wonder what TWC says, probably already named it and it is a non existent storm lol

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:10 pm

GFS is still nowehere close with regards to the weekend storm. That said, here's a gif showing the trend last four runs. Notice that southern energy over Baja, which the GFS has been holding back, is trying to move more and more east with consecutive runs. That said, I do not want to discount the GFS being that is forecasted yesterday's storm pretty well in my opinion.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 29 Gfs-z500-vort-us-fh48-trend-thumb-gif-a6e8fec0b6e0158bf00629c2cb1847d5

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS is still nowehere close with regards to the weekend storm. That said, here's a gif showing the trend last four runs. Notice that southern energy over Baja, which the GFS has been holding back, is trying to move more and more east with consecutive runs. That said, I do not want to discount the GFS being that is forecasted yesterday's storm pretty well in my opinion.

Ryan Maue showed a stat online at 5 days and greater the GFS has been atrocious in the NH. It made some minor improvements at 500 over 12Z but not what the EURO showed for sure. At this stage we track do not discount ANY solutions with the amount of energy flying around. Let's see what Thursday brings which may have an effect on Friday/Saturday system IMO. Time will tell.

by **Irish** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:44 pm

Well, it is already closing in on Tuesday, so we're only 3-4 days from this system possibly impacting the area.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:55 pm

Afternoon GFS now has seven (7) disturbances on the board Friday afternoon lol.

This is medium-range predictability as low as you'll pretty much ever see it in this age of super advanced models pic.twitter.com/kpAJn0Dx4E
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 17, 2022

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:56 pm

It's a question of which s/w the GFS is focusing on. Folks there are a lot of n/s s/w's flying around and I'm not sure the models have agreement onto which one will be the payer. But i can tell you something is cooking for this weekend. It may not come to fruition, but something is cooking. The subtropical jet is active and that just needs to get picked up by the n/s. This was close to being a major storm on the GFS. I like where we are at on the GFS right now...

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 29 Gfs53

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:12 pm

heehaw453 wrote:It's a question of which s/w the GFS is focusing on. Folks there are a lot of n/s s/w's flying around and I'm not sure the models have agreement onto which one will be the payer. But i can tell you something is cooking for this weekend. It may not come to fruition, but something is cooking. The subtropical jet is active and that just needs to get picked up by the n/s. This was close to being a major storm on the GFS. I like where we are at on the GFS right now...

A Met from another board states that unlike the Euro, the GFS and CMC models often struggle with southern stream energy. They are more reliable with northern stream shortwaves. Something to keep in mind. Could be the GFS is playing catch up. Only time will tell.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:13 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Accuweather honking kind of early...

I saw online Lee Goldberg mention the possibility of a storm but gave it a low probablity.

IMO most storms at D5 are low probability. Too much model variability at this range.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:16 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:It's a question of which s/w the GFS is focusing on. Folks there are a lot of n/s s/w's flying around and I'm not sure the models have agreement onto which one will be the payer. But i can tell you something is cooking for this weekend. It may not come to fruition, but something is cooking. The subtropical jet is active and that just needs to get picked up by the n/s. This was close to being a major storm on the GFS. I like where we are at on the GFS right now...
A Met from another board states that unlike the Euro, the GFS and CMC models often struggle with southern stream energy. They are more reliable with northern stream shortwaves. Something to keep in mind. Could be the GFS is playing catch up. Only time will tell.

Yeah that maybe true, but GFS having all that stuff on the board gives me no confidence it has a clue on what to focus on. But if this is going to occur, it'll probably start picking up by Wednesday across more models. If not, then we move on as always.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Accuweather honking kind of early...

I saw online Lee Goldberg mention the possibility of a storm but gave it a low probablity.
Gotta love th early KOD damn accuwx. Wonder what TWC says, probably already named it and it is a non existent storm lol

Don't worry jman, because the aauwx forecast says RATHER cloudy .In 61 years of reading and hearing weather forecasts I have never seen rather cloudy, just MOSTLY cloudy.
I consider this a reverse KOD.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:13 pm

18Z Euro would be another big storm for Saturday FWIW. Only goes out to 90 hours, but the n/s is basically phasing in with the s/s subtropical jet energy. It's really this phase that is the key to the evolution so that is D3+. The evolution makes sense to me as the SOI values are very indicative of an active southern stream. You have a lobe of the TPV spinning energy over the Hudson Bay. Nothing about this setup screams crazy evolution. Of course the timing has to be right and we are not there yet to have any confidence. Just saying synoptically it makes sense.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 29 Eurod310

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:17 pm

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Accuweather honking kind of early...

I saw online Lee Goldberg mention the possibility of a storm but gave it a low probablity.
Gotta love th early KOD damn accuwx. Wonder what TWC says, probably already named it and it is a non existent storm lol

Don't worry jman, because the aauwx forecast says RATHER cloudy .In 61 years of reading and hearing weather forecasts I have never seen rather cloudy, just MOSTLY cloudy.
I consider this a reverse KOD.

ur right wth is rather cloudy? the new guy must wrote this. lol

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:36 pm

Euro looks locked in

by **MattyICE** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:42 pm

Also I spy with my little eye a nice cold banana high Wink

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:50 pm

The northwest trend with the developing surface cyclone is quite notable. You can also visualize the amplification trends aloft over the last several runs. pic.twitter.com/VynlryunzS
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) January 18, 2022

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:58 pm

Here are some VERY key differences between the euro and the GFS as of today. Its pretty straight forward. By hr 75, basically only three days from now pay particular attention to the Northern short wave (S/W). Notice the euro by day three is much further south than the GFS with the Norther S/W. Almost 300 miles. This is key one. How does this piece play out?

Second is the piece enetering the NW CONUS. The euro is further back and a bit further S relative to the GFS. The difference is what allows the N S/W to be either N or S (Euro or GFS). Now focus your attention on the energy circled over NW Mexico/Arizona area.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 29 Euro_g13

Fast forward to Hour 99. There are some really clear differences. The northers S/W on the Euro conts to dig and phase with the southern energy, hence the bomb it produced. Whereas; the GFS leaves that southern energy behind and the N S/W continues on in a progressive fashion. Why? Because look back at the energy circled out west. Euro has it as far S&W as the middle of Cali which allows ridging out ahead helping the N energy to dig; whereas the GFS has that energy MUCH further N&E over NE Nevada at best leading to a progressive flow across the N half of the CONUS. Since there is no real digging of the N energy it leaves the southern piece behind and you get no storm.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 29 Euro_g12

There are other areas Im looking at ie: the NAO region, 505/50 region and the GO Alaska region as well but these are key piecs that need to resolve themselves before we know how it plays out. Ironically as a known bias the Euro tends to hold southern energy back, yet it is coming out. On the flip side the GFS seems to be the most progressive with southern energy yet its holding it back. We will see how it plays out as these energies get over better sampling over the next 48hrs.

If I were a betting man this one will hit as I will be in Tennessee on Saturday soooo if it does hit....you're all welcome!! Wink

WE TRACK!!!!! What a Face

by dolphins222 Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:11 pm

I rarely post, but read all the time. You guys do a great job breaking down each and every storm threat, and I am very happy I found this forum years ago.

Just wanted to tell all the people here ( which I assume is everyone) not to worry at all about the models for Saturdays storm, because the only model you need to know is I am going away for a week this Thursday, and that in itself guarantees a major snowstorm, so enjoy the storm tracking, and don't sweat it. its a lock. I just hope I get to experience at least 1 blizzard this winter, and deff wont complain if their are many more.

by **Joe Snow** Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:11 pm

Hello gang

I have been insane busy. Trying to catch up as much as possible, looks like something interesting for this weekend.

We track.

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