January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

SENJsnowman wrote:Snowfall just got heavier…

Go get yours!!!!

Finally have a few flakes

phil155 wrote:Finally have a few flakes

same here in Melville, LI

The surface and mid-level lows have cleared the coast. The precip will pivot north and then rapidly east as the mid-level low chases the baroclinic zone. I think by 5-6 o'clock it's pretty much shut down.

Snowfall has picked up again. Hit 4” about 45 min ago, might just be up to 5” by now. Aside from better rates, forecast has extended my snowfall by 5 hours throughout the course of the day. At one point this morning it said expect snow through 2 pm, now it says through 7 pm.

All hail kink NAM!

GFS bombed with it's northern fringe precip field just like I thought it would. I hope it's wrong with the 6/7th storm also.

I couldn't be happier for our SNJ friends. Great to see you all get the real thing and not a slopfest or the cruel back end tease.

No flakes here at all. The only thing blowing in the wind here are starlings.

Heaviest snowfall of the day, just hit 5” and

Oh man it’s snowing hard and windy now!!!!!

essexcountypete wrote:I couldn't be happier for our SNJ friends. Great to see you all get the real thing and not a slopfest or the cruel back end tease.

No flakes here at all. The only thing blowing in the wind here are starlings.  

Well said. This has been a like football game where we fell behind 10-0 early and now are winning 31-13 early in the 4th.

And I have a feeling you all are due up very shortly.

No fake radar here- getting blasted like it’s 2018!

essexcountypete wrote:I couldn't be happier for our SNJ friends. Great to see you all get the real thing and not a slopfest or the cruel back end tease.

No flakes here at all. The only thing blowing in the wind here are starlings.  

Couldn't agree more.

SENJsnowman wrote:Heaviest snowfall of the day, just hit 5” and

Oh man it’s snowing hard and windy now!!!!!

Wow, only 5”??? Admittedly it’s hard to judge because of the wind, but in looking around I’m estimating 10-12” here on the island so far with heavy snow continuing.

Probably 6”+ by now and the snow has pretty much cut off. Amazing that there was that much of a gradient in your favor- with you being further south and living on a full on jetti in the sea. lol But rock on brother. You actually earned it! Lol

rb924119 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Heaviest snowfall of the day, just hit 5” and

Oh man it’s snowing hard and windy now!!!!!

Wow, only 5”??? Admittedly it’s hard to judge because of the wind, but in looking around I’m estimating 10-12” here on the island so far with heavy snow continuing.

Buddy from LBI sent this!!

Wow!! Mine doesn’t look like that. But the surprise sunset was spectacular!

Amazing how that ridge just completely flattened out.

Scary for those wout power on a very cold night!! Lots of frozen n burst pipes!!

Nothing like shoveling snow at 3am lol

rb924119 wrote:Nothing like shoveling snow at 3am lol

LOL rb! I think the old expression is be careful what you wish for.I think your area was the jackpot from the snow reports I am reading.

Here are the final snow totals for the area compared to my snow map.  Plain and simple, I hate busting!  In the end On Sunday night I knew I was needing to shift my totals south a little which I had stated in the post along with the map was a possibility, but I ended up not having the time to make another map so I simply stuck with it.  In the end this map is about 40miles too far north +/-.  Truth be told if I was going to make a final call I would have shifted the northern most edge of the snow to the coast putting most of LI in the 0.5-2" range.  Even that would have been off by about 20miles +/-  

In the end I think we diagnosed the reason for the southern soln was related to the poorly timed energy crashing the west coast de-amplifying the ridge at just the wrong time. With an ENE to NE storm track exiting the coast on the north side of Cape Hatteras and the confluence with extremely cold dry air to the N the precip shield simply could not overcome the dry air and subsidence.  Until someone gives me an alternate soln thats what I am going with.  

On to the 1/6-1/7 threat

Your forecast map was really good sroc. In the end it would have verified if the 700mb wasn't bone dry. NAM handled that aspect much better than global models as one would expect.

AC picked up over 13" of snow out of this. It was a blizzard for those points right down to Ocean City MD. Overall the GFS did the best job on the evolution of the short wave and had the steadiest solutions throughout. I got nothing out of this from snowfall but did enjoy this one seeing shore folks cash in and the webcams from the shore. In-laws measured 9" in Barnegat area. Not too shabby...

I didn’t do an official measurement, but based on what I saw earlier this morning, and reading surrounding reports (and seeing mugsy’s photo), my estimate of 10-12” storm total seems reasonable. So, the NWS totals map is off a bit in this area, but you verified, Scott.

That said, I think the discussion of this event was great! I feel bad that I didn’t contribute, but at the end of the day, I would say that it’s fair to say that every aspect that was discussed, was discussed with sound meteorological reasoning. It’s going to be a bit embarrassing for me to admit this, but as somebody who honestly didn’t know anything about this storm, it was actually quite enjoyable to just sit back and observe the discussion. It’s certainly not a vantage point that I’m used to haha

This threat was highlighted well in advance, and you guys stuck with it, stayed the course, and I think collectively, forecast this event quite well. Just my two cents