January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

SENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.

to mess with and drive you crazy of course, I have a good feeling about this for you and if I get to see a inch or two that would be the icing on the cake, if it is sunny and cold that also will be fine, i hope we at least get a flurry lol

amugs wrote:SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!

Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain

Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards.  Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours.  A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled.  Nowcasting situations developing now.

Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.

Interesting, what t-storms is he talking about? Is there a t-storm tail on this down south? How would that effect the outcome up here? Sorry thats probably a loaded question.

amugs wrote:

EPS momma mia is that a juiced vortex. A bit more phase and NWS has an issue like Houston for NYC Metro

Maybe I am slow but what does that mean? I can see its a juiced vortex but what does houston and NYC metro have to do with it?

SENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.

The reason the nam is doing that because of the position of the jet streak(JS). The precip shield can only expand so far due to the physical parameters set by its position. Right rear quadrant you get enhanced vertical location but once you begin to get too close to it instead of rising motion you will get the opposite sinking air. Look at the difference between the NaM latest run and 12zgfs.





I’m not sure if it’s my bias or what but I am just not buying it. When GfS and Euro are on the same page it’s hard to go against. Plus here was the H5 trough right at initialization and the current H5 observation. Not the same.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!

Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain

Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards.  Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours.  A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled.  Nowcasting situations developing now.

Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.

Interesting, what t-storms is he talking about? Is there a t-storm tail on this down south? How would that effect the outcome up here? Sorry thats probably a loaded question.

Thunderstorm intensity down south could indicate a stronger than modeled storm which would tend to find itself drifting poleward. Also, there is something called latent heat release from
The T storms which can pump up heights out ahead - which could also inch things northward as well.

Very hard to ignore Nam not even having flurries. But also hard to ignore a GFS and euro agreement. But… it’s also short range time so…

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.

to mess with and drive you crazy of course, I have a good feeling about this for you and if I get to see a inch or two that would be the icing on the cake, if it is sunny and cold that also will be fine, i hope we at least get a flurry lol

Well THAT worked!! ha ha

Srocs pep talk/Jet Streak recap made me feel a lot better. So did checking the 3K NAM- at least better for Ocean Co. on south.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!

Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain

Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards.  Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours.  A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled.  Nowcasting situations developing now.

Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.

Interesting, what t-storms is he talking about? Is there a t-storm tail on this down south? How would that effect the outcome up here? Sorry thats probably a loaded question.

JMAN there is a lot of moisture and tstorm to be produced down south so that is key to latent heat release in the atmosphere that could help expand teh snow shield make it more robust up here. Also the faster it goes neutral will also change its trajectory to climb a bit more in latitude.

I am guessing nyc Long Island and lower west Chester will get winter weather advisory

T-Storms galore

amugs wrote:

T-Storms galore

Woah....will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

SENJsnowman wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.

to mess with and drive you crazy of course, I have a good feeling about this for you and if I get to see a inch or two that would be the icing on the cake, if it is sunny and cold that also will be fine, i hope we at least get a flurry lol

Well THAT worked!! ha ha

Srocs pep talk/Jet Streak recap made me feel a lot better. So did checking the 3K NAM- at least better for Ocean Co. on south.

Not necessarily saying NAM is right or wrong vs GFs/euro right or wrong just yet. Bottom line is where does it all set up amd shake out from the upper level players to the mid and surface features. Almost at a now cast

18z GFS holding on to some snow for NNJ, time to nowcast!

Ticked SE

Yep, small cave to the short range models for sure. Still a delight for these parts verbatim, but really eliminates any margin for error to the SE. Looks like the real time developments once again will tell the story…

Yeah.  GFS precip field looks more like some of the mesos just not as sharp.  It's really concentrating the lift on that narrow swath.  Usually means subsidence on the the northern side, so mesos may be on to that. Mid level moisture transport was not nearly as good as it has been for I-95.

TWC upping the ante for the northern edge of Ocean County. I mean, that’s a blizzard, no?

Consistent with the GFS and 3k NAM I suppose, so…

SE blizzard conditions are:
3 straight hours of
35 mph sustained winds
1/4 mile visibility
Snowfall rate of 1-3" per hour as well

SENJsnowman wrote:TWC upping the ante for the northern edge of Ocean County. I mean, that’s a blizzard, no?

Consistent with the GFS and 3k NAM I suppose, so…

Snowman if this holds it will be blizzard conditions within 5 miles from the beach.  This is about noon tomorrow during height of storm.  Snowing 2"/hr winds gusting to 45 mph and surface temps in mid 20's.  This is most likely going to be a great storm for your area.  Send pictures if you can!

Wow, what a sharp cut off! Anyway, glad SENJ and the other Southern Jersey crew have anice snowstorm to enjoy. Have friends and relatives in Maryland and Delaware who should get this as well.Nowcast time coming up.

18Z Euro moves the best lift now offshore.  Don't like the moisture transport on the 18Z runs.

NJ state offices are on a delayed opening for tomorrow.

frank 638 wrote:I am guessing nyc Long Island and lower west Chester will get winter weather advisory

way it looks maybe LI, doubt NYC and southern WC. This isn't our storm. Though I won't say it is impossible I would bet it will be a non-event up here maybe some mood flakes.

A little more robust than modelled from what I am reading.

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:I am guessing nyc Long Island and lower west Chester will get winter weather advisory

way it looks maybe LI, doubt NYC and southern WC.  This isn't our storm. Though I won't say it is impossible I would bet it will be a non-event up here maybe some mood flakes.

You are absolutely right I have a funny feeling Staten Island and Brooklyn will probably see 2 inches .for the Bronx maybe a coating for u flurries . This storm reminds me of 2010 or 2011 when Staten Island had 4 inches of snow and for me and you we had nothing let’s hope and pray we get more snow coming up at soon. I hope you and your family are feeling much better

Sref 6+ for nyc area

21z SREF mean for ISP nearly doubled from prior run