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January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:06 am

Please move all January 3 storm conversation here.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:12 am

1010 wins has the city and Long Island for a coatingto an inch

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:17 am

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm FIErkTVXIAAOqvD.jpeg.3813684db3f719d29237b85dd9e56b2b

Lots of moving parts that any can affect this storm greatly in + direction.

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:44 am

12Z GFS running. This could be telling peeps.
A little slower at first and west.

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:48 am

Another bump north on the 12z GFS from 6z
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm Cf923910
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm C2081510
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:49 am

As the great Tom January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm Gfs_z500_vort_us_fh30_trend.gif.184fd32240f40a2e14e9ef53def120fbPett CPs man sand ..Won't Back Down..
GFS is doing this FTW!!


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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:51 am

A bit slower allows backside energy to partially get into the trough and the WAR pressing a tad more. One more tick and we are good for NYC metro for plowable snowstorm

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:53 am

12Z GFS 500mb trough already swings negative at hr 21.  The very best 700mb lift is in SE NJ Atlantic City to Cape May, but anywhere Pt Pleasant on south will get hit hard.  There is room for this to come north a bit more, but I don't think much more due to the trajectory of the ULL.  This could be quite the event for coastal NJ.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm Gfs42

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:53 am

How much snow ❄ will nyc get

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:54 am

@frank 638 wrote:How much snow ❄ will nyc get

I think this will be painful to watch on radar for anyone north of I-78 with exception of eastern LI.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:58 am

Good morning everyone my whole household has been hit with covid for  The last week or so.   The good news is that we're all fully vaccinated and the symptoms have been mild.  What's interesting about this storm Is that Virginia Maryland Delaware Southern New Jersey will reach climo snowfall in a LA Nina.  That definitely wasn't expected with still 2 months of Winter to go
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:00 am

@amugs wrote:A bit slower allows backside energy to partially get into the trough and the WAR pressing a tad more. One more tick and we are good for NYC metro for plowable snowstorm
Yep. GFS was painfully close to a phase. If that shortwave slows up a tad more this thing would go boom. Problem is the flow probably is a bit too progressive for that to happen. Regardless like the NWS said this is an evolving forecast and still bears close watching.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:01 am

GFS with 20" of snow for Atlantic City and 17 for dc incredible
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:01 am

Al hope ur all on the mend and speedy healthy recovery.

Bump from other thread. Not to shabby.


Monday has a shot, albeit not much but it's still on the table. Need this piece of Energy over NE called confluence to relax more and the Northern energy over the Great Lake's to speed up a tad and catch the Main stream over VA Caoes region or Delmarva and we can have a moderate event for the NYC region and especially CNJ/Coastal NJ and LI.
Right now SNJ - say about Brick/Pt. PT Pleasantleasant looks to be in a good spot for Mondays storm and extended holiday vacay for the kids!!!

From 33 n Rain ShowMe - Great visual maps

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm MSE.gif.719903aa19d214088c77fcffe4b6f2b2[/quote]


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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:01 am

My one concern being on the edge is there is a big push of fresh cold dry air. That could really trim the northern gradient
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:05 am

All I can say is yeah I wish it was my back yard, but they are due. Literally 3 years in a row they haven't gotten anywhere near their seasonal snowfall. DC right to the Jersey shore anomalously low totals.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:11 am

NWS meteorologists really have a tough job. I don't envy it, but respect the hell out them. This will obviously be updated in short order.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm Nws10

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:15 am

Updated map from Steve D
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm 37a3b410
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:19 am

GEFS are NW of the OP.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:28 am

Cmc is a tick north



Very nice for A.C southward
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:41 am

GEFS mean snowfall and I normally don't like looking at Global ensembles at this range, but I think GFS op is out to lunch.  I think this looks more realistic than the op numbers.  I think 1' at Jersey coast makes sense southern Ocean to Cape May.  I don't buy 20" for one minute with this setup.  2-4" like what Frank has in the scroll sounds possible.  But if there is too much subsidence and dry air it will be nothing but virga 78 on north.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm Gefs20

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:58 am

Hey all so. This is a surprise doesn't look like I'll get much some models show maybe 1 to 3 but snj deserves this so many times they been shafted. Yeah it'll be painful to watch but at least there's a snowstorm! Gives hope for us north of NYC for future storms. But who knows with this still have 24 hrs. Track! This reminds me of the flip in last minute track of boxing day blizzard except further south.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:01 pm

Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?
 It doesn't look good for us hopefully we can squeak out an inch with some nice Arctic air to follow would make it look very wintry for a few days
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:19 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Al aorry to hear you all got covid so did we. It's unreal how infectious this variant is. Do you think there's any shot for us at a few inches maybe?
 It doesn't look good for us hopefully we can squeak out an inch with some nice Arctic air to follow would make it look very wintry for a few days
i figured as much, thats okay we will get ours just barely jan. Crazy that NYC may see 2-4 and literally a mile outside the bronx we may see a inch, talk about a shoarp cutoff lol, if i wasnt working i might have gone to the city or even down to jersey.
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