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January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

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CPcantmeasuresnow
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:44 pm

phil155 wrote:Finally have a few flakes 😀

same here in Melville, LI
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:50 pm

The surface and mid-level lows have cleared the coast. The precip will pivot north and then rapidly east as the mid-level low chases the baroclinic zone. I think by 5-6 o'clock it's pretty much shut down.

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:38 pm

Snowfall has picked up again. Hit 4” about 45 min ago, might just be up to 5” by now. Aside from better rates, forecast has extended my snowfall by 5 hours throughout the course of the day. At one point this morning it said expect snow through 2 pm, now it says through 7 pm.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 E9d19410
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 1f020910

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:47 pm

All hail kink NAM! Rolling Eyes Mad Razz

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:07 pm

GFS bombed with it's northern fringe precip field just like I thought it would. I hope it's wrong with the 6/7th storm also.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:10 pm

I couldn't be happier for our SNJ friends. Great to see you all get the real thing and not a slopfest or the cruel back end tease.

No flakes here at all. The only thing blowing in the wind here are starlings.
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:15 pm

Heaviest snowfall of the day, just hit 5” and

Oh man it’s snowing hard and windy now!!!!!

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:21 pm

essexcountypete wrote:I couldn't be happier for our SNJ friends. Great to see you all get the real thing and not a slopfest or the cruel back end tease.

No flakes here at all. The only thing blowing in the wind here are starlings.  

Well said. This has been a like football game where we fell behind 10-0 early and now are winning 31-13 early in the 4th.

And I have a feeling you all are due up very shortly.

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:27 pm

No fake radar here- getting blasted like it’s 2018!January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 Ea4f5210

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:30 pm

essexcountypete wrote:I couldn't be happier for our SNJ friends. Great to see you all get the real thing and not a slopfest or the cruel back end tease.

No flakes here at all. The only thing blowing in the wind here are starlings.  

Couldn't agree more.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:01 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Heaviest snowfall of the day, just hit 5” and

Oh man it’s snowing hard and windy now!!!!!

Wow, only 5”??? Admittedly it’s hard to judge because of the wind, but in looking around I’m estimating 10-12” here on the island so far with heavy snow continuing.

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:31 pm

Probably 6”+ by now and the snow has pretty much cut off. Amazing that there was that much of a gradient in your favor- with you being further south and living on a full on jetti in the sea. lol But rock on brother. You actually earned it! Lol

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:39 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Heaviest snowfall of the day, just hit 5” and

Oh man it’s snowing hard and windy now!!!!!

Wow, only 5”??? Admittedly it’s hard to judge because of the wind, but in looking around I’m estimating 10-12” here on the island so far with heavy snow continuing.

Buddy from LBI sent this!!

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 Img_0610



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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:53 pm

Wow!! Mine doesn’t look like that. But the surprise sunset was spectacular!

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:32 pm

Amazing how that ridge just completely flattened out.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 500mb_sf

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:39 pm

Scary for those wout power on a very cold night!! Lots of frozen n burst pipes!!
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 Fin1-c10



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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 04, 2022 3:34 am

Nothing like shoveling snow at 3am lol

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:24 am

rb924119 wrote:Nothing like shoveling snow at 3am lol

LOL rb! I think the old expression is be careful what you wish for.I think your area was the jackpot from the snow reports I am reading.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:10 am

Here are the final snow totals for the area compared to my snow map.  Plain and simple, I hate busting! Neutral Evil or Very Mad  In the end On Sunday night I knew I was needing to shift my totals south a little which I had stated in the post along with the map was a possibility, but I ended up not having the time to make another map so I simply stuck with it.  In the end this map is about 40miles too far north +/-.  Truth be told if I was going to make a final call I would have shifted the northern most edge of the snow to the coast putting most of LI in the 0.5-2" range.  Even that would have been off by about 20miles +/-  

In the end I think we diagnosed the reason for the southern soln was related to the poorly timed energy crashing the west coast de-amplifying the ridge at just the wrong time. With an ENE to NE storm track exiting the coast on the north side of Cape Hatteras and the confluence with extremely cold dry air to the N the precip shield simply could not overcome the dry air and subsidence.  Until someone gives me an alternate soln thats what I am going with.  

On to the 1/6-1/7 threat

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 Snow_t10
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 7 Map_213

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:08 am

Your forecast map was really good sroc. In the end it would have verified if the 700mb wasn't bone dry. NAM handled that aspect much better than global models as one would expect.

AC picked up over 13" of snow out of this. It was a blizzard for those points right down to Ocean City MD. Overall the GFS did the best job on the evolution of the short wave and had the steadiest solutions throughout. I got nothing out of this from snowfall but did enjoy this one seeing shore folks cash in and the webcams from the shore. In-laws measured 9" in Barnegat area. Not too shabby...

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:50 am

I didn’t do an official measurement, but based on what I saw earlier this morning, and reading surrounding reports (and seeing mugsy’s photo), my estimate of 10-12” storm total seems reasonable. So, the NWS totals map is off a bit in this area, but you verified, Scott.

That said, I think the discussion of this event was great! I feel bad that I didn’t contribute, but at the end of the day, I would say that it’s fair to say that every aspect that was discussed, was discussed with sound meteorological reasoning. It’s going to be a bit embarrassing for me to admit this, but as somebody who honestly didn’t know anything about this storm, it was actually quite enjoyable to just sit back and observe the discussion. It’s certainly not a vantage point that I’m used to haha

This threat was highlighted well in advance, and you guys stuck with it, stayed the course, and I think collectively, forecast this event quite well. Just my two cents Smile

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