January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
+22
CPcantmeasuresnow
larryrock72
freezerburn
rb924119
snowday111
docstox12
MattyICE
phil155
Dunnzoo
SENJsnowman
emokid51783
dsix85
billg315
sroc4
jmanley32
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
algae888
aiannone
amugs
frank 638
heehaw453
26 posters
Page 3 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
to mess with and drive you crazy of course, I have a good feeling about this for you and if I get to see a inch or two that would be the icing on the cake, if it is sunny and cold that also will be fine, i hope we at least get a flurry lolSENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20606
Join date : 2013-12-12
SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Interesting, what t-storms is he talking about? Is there a t-storm tail on this down south? How would that effect the outcome up here? Sorry thats probably a loaded question.amugs wrote:SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!
Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain
Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards. Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours. A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled. Nowcasting situations developing now.
Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20606
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Maybe I am slow but what does that mean? I can see its a juiced vortex but what does houston and NYC metro have to do with it?amugs wrote:
EPS momma mia is that a juiced vortex. A bit more phase and NWS has an issue like Houston for NYC Metro
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20606
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
SENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.
The reason the nam is doing that because of the position of the jet streak(JS). The precip shield can only expand so far due to the physical parameters set by its position. Right rear quadrant you get enhanced vertical location but once you begin to get too close to it instead of rising motion you will get the opposite sinking air. Look at the difference between the NaM latest run and 12zgfs.
I’m not sure if it’s my bias or what but I am just not buying it. When GfS and Euro are on the same page it’s hard to go against. Plus here was the H5 trough right at initialization and the current H5 observation. Not the same.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8411
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
amugs, SENJsnowman and phil155 like this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
jmanley32 wrote:Interesting, what t-storms is he talking about? Is there a t-storm tail on this down south? How would that effect the outcome up here? Sorry thats probably a loaded question.amugs wrote:SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!
Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain
Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards. Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours. A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled. Nowcasting situations developing now.
Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.
Thunderstorm intensity down south could indicate a stronger than modeled storm which would tend to find itself drifting poleward. Also, there is something called latent heat release from
The T storms which can pump up heights out ahead - which could also inch things northward as well.
MattyICE- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 249
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 39
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)
sroc4 likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Very hard to ignore Nam not even having flurries. But also hard to ignore a GFS and euro agreement. But… it’s also short range time so…
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4820
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
jmanley32 wrote:to mess with and drive you crazy of course, I have a good feeling about this for you and if I get to see a inch or two that would be the icing on the cake, if it is sunny and cold that also will be fine, i hope we at least get a flurry lolSENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.
Well THAT worked!! ha ha
Srocs pep talk/Jet Streak recap made me feel a lot better. So did checking the 3K NAM- at least better for Ocean Co. on south.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1191
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
jmanley32 wrote:Interesting, what t-storms is he talking about? Is there a t-storm tail on this down south? How would that effect the outcome up here? Sorry thats probably a loaded question.amugs wrote:SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!
Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain
Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards. Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours. A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled. Nowcasting situations developing now.
Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.
JMAN there is a lot of moisture and tstorm to be produced down south so that is key to latent heat release in the atmosphere that could help expand teh snow shield make it more robust up here. Also the faster it goes neutral will also change its trajectory to climb a bit more in latitude.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
I am guessing nyc Long Island and lower west Chester will get winter weather advisory
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2852
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
T-Storms galore
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Woah....will be interesting to see how this unfolds.amugs wrote:
T-Storms galore
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20606
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
SENJsnowman wrote:jmanley32 wrote:to mess with and drive you crazy of course, I have a good feeling about this for you and if I get to see a inch or two that would be the icing on the cake, if it is sunny and cold that also will be fine, i hope we at least get a flurry lolSENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.
Well THAT worked!! ha ha
Srocs pep talk/Jet Streak recap made me feel a lot better. So did checking the 3K NAM- at least better for Ocean Co. on south.
Not necessarily saying NAM is right or wrong vs GFs/euro right or wrong just yet. Bottom line is where does it all set up amd shake out from the upper level players to the mid and surface features. Almost at a now cast
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8411
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4914
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Ticked SE
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Yep, small cave to the short range models for sure. Still a delight for these parts verbatim, but really eliminates any margin for error to the SE. Looks like the real time developments once again will tell the story…
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1191
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Yeah. GFS precip field looks more like some of the mesos just not as sharp. It's really concentrating the lift on that narrow swath. Usually means subsidence on the the northern side, so mesos may be on to that. Mid level moisture transport was not nearly as good as it has been for I-95.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1191
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ
freezerburn likes this post
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
SE blizzard conditions are:
3 straight hours of
35 mph sustained winds
1/4 mile visibility
Snowfall rate of 1-3" per hour as well
3 straight hours of
35 mph sustained winds
1/4 mile visibility
Snowfall rate of 1-3" per hour as well
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Wow, what a sharp cut off! Anyway, glad SENJ and the other Southern Jersey crew have anice snowstorm to enjoy. Have friends and relatives in Maryland and Delaware who should get this as well.Nowcast time coming up.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8570
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
heehaw453 and SENJsnowman like this post
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
NJ state offices are on a delayed opening for tomorrow.
snowday111- Posts : 92
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Monroe Twp. NJ (Middlesex County)
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
way it looks maybe LI, doubt NYC and southern WC. This isn't our storm. Though I won't say it is impossible I would bet it will be a non-event up here maybe some mood flakes.frank 638 wrote:I am guessing nyc Long Island and lower west Chester will get winter weather advisory
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20606
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
A little more robust than modelled from what I am reading.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
You are absolutely right I have a funny feeling Staten Island and Brooklyn will probably see 2 inches .for the Bronx maybe a coating for u flurries . This storm reminds me of 2010 or 2011 when Staten Island had 4 inches of snow and for me and you we had nothing let’s hope and pray we get more snow coming up at soon. I hope you and your family are feeling much betterjmanley32 wrote:way it looks maybe LI, doubt NYC and southern WC. This isn't our storm. Though I won't say it is impossible I would bet it will be a non-event up here maybe some mood flakes.frank 638 wrote:I am guessing nyc Long Island and lower west Chester will get winter weather advisory
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2852
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Sref 6+ for nyc area
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4820
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Page 3 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|