Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic, as does the ICON. Good trends.
Do you still feel a inland runner is your bet? If I remember correctly I think that was your initial thinking or am I wrong? Do we get this offshore to get a areawide sig snowfall? Thats the question and I hope so. We all know that with this still being 4 days out that a trip back west is not out of the question.

Only up to about Virginia, then I think it occludes and redevelops off the coast. I think the models have been too aggressive driving this so far north, but we’ll see.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:35 am

GEFS continue to be the outlier. East of OP and significant snows N&W.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:43 am

Canadian still wants to cut into Pennsylvania. Big Euro run upcoming.

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:57 am

12z GEFS

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 27179510

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:18 pm

If the 12Z GFS is right this won't be a clean snowstorm for most people. It will taint all the way up past the Hudson Valley. The further NW of I95 the more opportunity for sig snow. I think the NWS maps I showed before are good for the threat area for now. You are going to have to see about 75 mile SE ULL track from where 12Z GFS has it to get the coast in the game. That is not unreasonable at D3+. But we just can't start walking backwards on future runs...

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:21 pm

mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!

NO SNOW FOR YOU! We'll just keep it here in NJ.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:22 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!

NO SNOW FOR YOU! We'll just keep it here in NJ.

Damn right!! LOL

by **mikeypizano** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:45 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!

NO SNOW FOR YOU! We'll just keep it here in NJ.

Good, more time to play on my radio! :p

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:47 pm

get those umbrellas out

by **mikeypizano** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:48 pm

RJB8525 wrote:get those umbrellas out

Naw, this one will go straight to good ol Beantown!

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:52 pm

aiannone wrote:12z GEFS

really hoping these are right, beautiful sight there.

by **phil155** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:54 pm

RJB8525 wrote:get those umbrellas out

by **lglickman1** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:13 pm

At this point, if the storm evolved the way the models depict it on today's runs would the i-95 corridor get any snow?

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:16 pm

Heights on EC are dampened a bit with that ocean storm. Trough digs pretty far down on 12Z Euro.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 Euro38

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:16 pm

lglickman1 wrote:At this point, if the storm evolved the way the models depict it on today's runs would the i-95 corridor get any snow?

Most of us are likely to see a front-end thump of snow/sleet before changeover to rain. Some models are showing a nice front-end and then dry slotting the area. So even if temps warm, it won't rain to wash away everything. Ultimately depends on the model you look at, but today's GFS and Canadian show 1-3" of front end snows followed by heavy rain and wind.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:19 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Heights on EC are dampened a bit with that ocean storm. Trough digs pretty far down on 12Z Euro.

…Yet it still cuts. Ugh.

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:At this point, if the storm evolved the way the models depict it on today's runs would the i-95 corridor get any snow?

Most of us are likely to see a front-end thump of snow/sleet before changeover to rain. Some models are showing a nice front-end and then dry slotting the area. So even if temps warm, it won't rain to wash away everything. Ultimately depends on the model you look at, but today's GFS and Canadian show 1-3" of front end snows followed by heavy rain and wind.

I hate to say but if we’re gonna get rain Then I want this don’t happen

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:20 pm

The EURO still brings the low west but did make slight improvements aloft with the main upper energy. You can see it's a robust brand of moderate to heavy snow over parts of the area. Also, a secondary low tries to chase the convection offshore which would mean subsidence/dry slotting over parts of our area as well if this happened as advertised. I think we need the northern s/w energy to slow down so it stops trying to tug the main low west.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 Image-thumb-png-424398fa86986b82c3b23878a8a83177

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:22 pm

EURO snow map. EURO also shows the dry slot I alluded to just now. So for those who see snow accumulate actually don't see much rain afterwards.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 Sn10-acc-us-ne

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 Sn10-acc-us-ne

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:24 pm

We're seeing big enough changes today that excite me enough for nearly everyone, except maybe the immediate coast along Jersey Shore/eastern LI, to see a small to moderate accumulation before either changing to rain or getting dry slotted due to the track of the primary low.

I can see these trends continuing which could put more of NYC Metro in a 3-6/4-8 type of zone. As of now most models are either showing nothing or 1-3.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:31 pm

Frank is right. Move this ULL SE about 80 miles or so and it'll be good for most in the forum. D3+ is not unreasonable, but right now NW of I95 are favored. The track of developing and phased storms is not going to be nailed down for sometime, but I like seeing the ULL dig and come underneath Atlanta. That gives me optimism. But will it hold of course?

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 Euroul17

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:35 pm

Rb are you thinking these two pieces phase with each other over mid-atlantic and that is what gives you the more southerly route?

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 Euro39

by **mmanisca** Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We're seeing big enough changes today that excite me enough for nearly everyone, except maybe the immediate coast along Jersey Shore/eastern LI, to see a small to moderate accumulation before either changing to rain or getting dry slotted due to the track of the primary low.

I can see these trends continuing which could put more of NYC Metro in a 3-6/4-8 type of zone. As of now most models are either showing nothing or 1-3.

Hey Frank as I mentioned earlier another consideration is the very warm ocean temperatures sitting of the coast. We will need a good shot of WAA snows before that wind starts to freshen up. I've seen in the past where very cold temperatures vanish within hours when that wind gets going even at a moderate breeze.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:28 pm

The 12Z EPS ULL location is about the same as 06z but better than 00Z. Need some improvements...

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 Epsull11

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:30 pm

At this point I will be with 3-6 or more with a dry slot . I just want a snow day lol

by **amugs** Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:46 pm

Catching up here an don the model runs:
Delmarva-----> Eastern Long Island------> Boston

There's your future low track... no need to watch models anymore- your welcome

She'll follow the HP

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 FJAN3jnXoAI7Xn4?format=jpg&name=small

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 12 FJAN3jnXoAI7Xn4?format=jpg&name=small

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:54 pm

amugs wrote:Catching up here an don the model runs:
Delmarva-----> Eastern Long Island------> Boston

There's your future low track... no need to watch models anymore- your welcome

She'll follow the HP

Perfect, For IMBY I dont even need to see a 30 mile drop south to be in 6-12 and I would be more than fine with that. Even 3-6 which is very close to if not IMBY, but of course this will all change in next 3 days. If your prediction is right then I wil lcrown you the genie on the forum. lol

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