Long Range Discussion 23.0

GFS did miss east but man, it was verrrry close

Let's see what the ensembles show

Phase is a bit sloppy on the 00Z GFS.  Trough doesn't dig as much as a result.  It's subtle things that we cannot have any confidence of ATTM.  The difference between a direct hit and a near miss is really subtle. Have to give it a bit more time unfortunately to have confidence.

Canadian is much more east compared to 12z, but still hits long island pretty hard.

Remember the energy is still way up in the NE Pacific. We have ways to go, unfortunately.

For the life of me I can't figure out this 'holding energy back" thing the models are doing this year.

For it to continue happening means there's something about the pattern that is driving this phenomena.

Hoping it does not bite us again

The trough has to dig more to allow for further south cyclogenesis. And that's going to need the better phase. If it digs to GA, then this is a hit IMO as the Atlantic ridge will pinch off the energy inside the BM. If the trough cannot dig the energy has a much higher prob of being able to ride outside the BM.

00z GEFS do not look like the OP...not holding much southern energy back.

A lot of mixed emotions tonight. GFS is improved over 18z, GEFS look good but the CMC going east is disconcerting. Let’s see what the model formerly known as king Euro has to say.

This GIF tells you everything you need to know. It is comparing the 18z inidividual GEF members to 00z. Look at the wide array of solutions on the 00z compared to 18z. A massive spread. Models have no idea what is happening....

Goodnight.....

adamfitz1969 wrote:Goodnight.....

Yup. Will be interesting to see how this evolves the next several days.

This system as shown on the models does have elements of the January 4th, 2018 "Bomb Cyclone", which was a decent for NYC and points east.

We do have the ridging out west and knowing that the MJO impact usually lags 10-15 days and that 10-15 days ago it was in Phase 8, one of our ideal phases, that works in our favor. The NAO/AO, however, are positive which are not what you want to see. Then again, that's what we had in the said 1/4/18 event.

Fun fact: the 2017-18 snow season had 40.9" in Central Park and nine one inch plus events. 1/4/18, however, was the only storm during that period in which the snow accumulated onto the streets of Midtown Manhattan. I worked in Midtown during that time btw.

rb924119 wrote:I know all the focus is on this weekend, but I am absolutely FIRED UP after what the GEPS and EPS are showing in the extended regarding the pattern evolution. The GEFS are alone in depicting a much more mild pattern, and for the model that has seemingly led the way with the pattern evolution since November, I think it’s trying to lead many astray now. Will be an interesting battle, but I am fully expecting the GEPS and EPS to beat the GEFS here, as they align with my thoughts exactly. Also makes me feel better that my ideas have broad support lol there’s A LOT to be excited about tonight, in my opinion, both near and long term. We track!

Ok but what are your thoughts about this weekend

So GFS headed back west CMC made a east movement and euro looks a lot like it's control gulp with a 961mb bomb just se of LI.   No one jump as Frank said the gefs show there's no clue what's going on. Imo out of what we have had this year this one looks the most promising but we could still get skunked. As sroc always says cautious optimism

I will say I don't like that gfs has backed away from much of anything for 3 runs now as 06z gfs is east of 00z and maybe even slightly more east than 18z. But it's still 4 days or so out. I'm not worried yet.

Pretty simple.  

GFS is holding back the S energy = more progressive, less phase and further east track.

Euro releases all the energy = fully phased mauler up the coast

Also notice the circle in the NW corner of both maps.  Clear differences.  GFS is faster and further east with this energy relative to the Euro. This deamplifieds the ridge some and keeps the northern half of the flow just a bit more progressive. The energy is a tad later on the euro so ridge is more robust on the Euro, so the N energy digs better.  

This is almost identical to where we were last week before the Euro caved to the GFS.  Currently the GFS ensembles support its operational, BUT the Euro ensembles shifted west and support ITS operational.  The whole thing has me on egg shells to be honest.  Next 24-36hrs will be telling.  

WE TRACK!!!    

Still don't have any more confidence IMO... GFS still not allowing for a cleaner phase as of its latest 06Z run and the Canadian was similar deal at 00Z. The 00Z Euro is much cleaner and a direct hit for the area. It's ensembles were further westward too. If the western ridge holds and forces the s/s energy to roll forward then we'll be in business. It's just too early too say now, but this will be resolved in next 24-36 hours IMO one way or the other.

sroc4 wrote:Pretty simple.  

GFS is holding back the S energy = more progressive, less phase and further east track.

Euro releases all the energy = fully phased mauler up the coast

Also notice the circle in the NW corner of both maps.  Clear differences.  GFS is faster and further east with this energy relative to the Euro.  This deamplifieds the ridge some and keeps the northern half of the flow just a bit more progressive.  The energy is a tad later on the euro so ridge is more robust on the Euro, so the N energy digs better.  

This is almost identical to where we were last week before the Euro caved to the GFS.  Currently the GFS ensembles support its operational, BUT the Euro ensembles shifted west and support ITS operational.  The whole thing has me on egg shells to be honest.  Next 24-36hrs will be telling.  

WE TRACK!!!    

Yeah I lied it does have me a bit nervous. I thought Frank said the gfs ensembles about were all over the place? Can king euro regain his crown? If we see a flip east on euro I think it will be over except may be for you sroc.

6z RGEM would of been a bit hit if extrapolated out. It moves out the energy in the SW faster compared to the 0z run. It’ll be interesting to see if the CMC responds today and shifts west at 12z.

So when you say it “holding back and release the energy” we are talking about timing of the energies meeting up with one another or is the something else at play that would hold back the energy

nutleyblizzard wrote:6z RGEM would of been a bit hit if extrapolated out. It moves out the energy in the SW faster compared to the 0z run. It’ll be interesting to see if the CMC responds today and shifts west at 12z.

Hard to say. My look at its 500 energy I'd say not as good Euro, but probably better than GFS. The ridge isn't quite as sharp to allow for the n/s energy to vertically come down on the s/s like what Euro showed. That's going to be key with this is that ridge...

Upton has a hwo saying potential for heavy snow and high winds. MT. Holly says nothing. Clearly they seeing this potential move east. I fed hope for positive trends today and tomorrow. Shoot we may not even know Thursday. You know when we will know for sure...sunday lmao

Scullybutcher wrote:So when you say it “holding back and release the energy” we are talking about timing of the energies meeting up with one another or is the something else at play that would hold back the energy

Thats the million dollar question Bobby.  Frank mentioned it last night too.  For some un known reason energy wants to be held back in the SW.  I personally think its due to the poor timing of energy crashing the N western shores of north America that de-amplify the PNA ridge that we have needed to dig the N energy deeper.  The result of this poor timed de-amplification, which I mentioned in the above summary, leads to the slightly more progressive nature of the entire Northern half of the system as a whole. Put another way the northern flow speeds up relative to the southern flow causing N energy to miss the S energy.

Ironically this is where the main piece of our southern energy will be as of about 1pm this afternoon. Notice our "Southern" energy will be way up north in southern Alaska as of this afternoon and the N energy only slightly further N. There is also the energy out in the sub-trop Pac that will stream east N eastward along the STJ to join the party as well.

Silly Analogy:

If the deep south where the bus stop we need the southern energy to get to the bus stop just ahead of the Bus in order to be picked up and go along for the perfect ride.  Otherwise if the bus and bus driver (N energy) is a little too fast in its route and gets to the bus stop just ahead of the S energy then it leaves before the S energy has a chance to be picked up.(progressive flow, and or Phases too late for the system to affect us in the NE and OTS)  In this silly analogy if the bus leaves the bus stop before the S energy gets there, but the S energy is just a tad late the energy still may run after the bus and catch it just before it leaves entirely resulting in still getting picked up. This may result in the soln that brings light to mod snow to the area.

It is extremely concerning that we’re still seeing the GFS, NAM and in part the CMC hold energy back. It’s mostly concerning because it’s a trend we have seen this season. The EURO is completely on its own, and if you remember also did a poor job forecasting last weekends storm. With an anomalous EPO and PNA ridge I would expect these upper air features to advance east as normal. But the ridge is seemingly trying to overtop our southern piece. I still don’t think that is right, and we saw more GEF members at 06z trend west compared to 00z. However, would love to see the GFS progress this energy east at 12z today. If it can, it GREATLY increases odds for a Godzilla this weekend.

nutleyblizzard wrote:6z RGEM would of been a bit hit if extrapolated out. It moves out the energy in the SW faster compared to the 0z run. It’ll be interesting to see if the CMC responds today and shifts west at 12z.

Yes, RGEM also in the EURO camp.

The blue ‘x’ is where we need the southern energy to be. Perfectly aligned with the northern vort. But notice the GFS has it vacationing in New Mexico and Texas…