Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

by **phil155** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:46 am

docstox12 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

What is your location Phil?

Edison

by **docstox12** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 am

jmanley32 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI
Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

I think we are still in the game but the odds after last night have worsened.However, from what I have seen from the long range crew, an earlier phase and a negative tilt developing changes our odds for the better.Lot's of time for that to happen it is only Wednesday.
yeah keep hope alive.

Yep, as Doc says, cautious optimism.Anyway, it sure is a great time for the board a big winter storm on the prowl.Be back here tomorrow am for another look.

by **docstox12** Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:48 am

phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

What is your location Phil?

Edison

Think you are in a pretty good spot there Phil.Closer to LI and Jersey Shore.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:00 am

To be expected in the storm handbook for coastals. SE and we may see another tick or two and everyone's anxieties, negative nanny and IMBY posts fly. Then we start to see NW trends 24- 36 hours out and everyone jumps back on board and says, "It's a miracle" "I knew this one was for real ". Can this slip east, always possible, can it hit like showing yesterday, surely. Time will tell and for 2 runs to see models tick east is to be expected at this stage. Energy comes onshore today so we'll get a BETTER sense, idea, not the final solution so please refrain from such. Please use Banter for your frustrations. No one is out of this game at this stage. Have faith. To a fun day of tracking.

by **mikeypizano** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:07 am

amugs wrote:To be expected in the storm handbook for coastals. SE and we may see another tick or two and everyone's anxieties, negative nanny and IMBY posts fly. Then we start to see NW trends 24- 36 hours out and everyone jumps back on board and says, "It's a miracle" "I knew this one was for real ". Can this slip east, always possible, can it hit like showing yesterday, surely. Time will tell and for 2 runs to see models tick east is to be expected at this stage. Energy comes onshore today so we'll get a BETTER sense, idea, not the final solution so please refrain from such. Please use Banter for your frustrations. No one is out of this game at this stage. Have faith. To a fun day of tracking.

OR, Frankie makes a thread, the storm sees it says HELL NO and avoids NJ and NY like the plague... affraid

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:13 am

06z EURO is coming in west of 00z even though I don’t necessarily like the look at 500mb. Somehow the ULL was able to close off south of us despite a more progressive northern stream energy.

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by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:14 am

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:15 am

I had mentioned the other day, when Irish brought up our superstitions on this board, about not putting up a separate storm thread yet for fear of jinxing the storm, that in the past we have resorted to human sacrifice (not posting for a specified period of time) to resurrect storms not trending in our direction.

I officially declare that as of this date and time 1/26/22 7:11 AM that I hereby sacrifice myself to the snow Gods and will not post on this forum for the month of February if this storm produces at least 15 inches of snow for the north and west areas of the forum. This goes as far west as heehaw, as far north as Hyde in Hyde Park (Dutchess County). At the same time it must produce at least 20 inches of snow for the coastal and eastern sections of the forum.

Should the 12Z's continue to deteriorate I extend that time frame through the rest of the winter. If any others wish to join me in this selfless act, there is strength in numbers.

The power of the forum compels you.

by **dsix85** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:17 am

Bernie Rayno confident most of Long Island get 12-18” with possibly
More. He stresses to NOT look at the surface maps but rather 500mb.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:26 am

Mikey P I copy and pasted your comment in the Banter thread.

As Mugsy stated take your frustrations and or weenie knee jerk reactions over to banter. And for the love of Gawd everyone....

by **mmanisca** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:26 am

Sorry inlanders but I do love the Euro for Suffolk county! Going bonkers on that snowfall! Nice temps and thicknesses! Lets get those high ratios! Seems as though were closing in on potential Blizzard conditions here on the Island..

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:29 am

06 euro, yes technically off run, but it does not want to budge on its idea of closing off 500 earlier than others, and the mid level low tracks are absolutely perfect for almost everyone

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 26 Ecmwf102

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:32 am

sroc4 wrote:06 euro, yes technically off run, but it does not want to budge on its idea of closing off 500 earlier than others, and the mid level low tracks are absolutely perfect for almost everyone

Here is your snow map at a mere 10:1, IT WILL BE HIGHER FOR MANY, and its still snowing withthe CCB over most of us. This is an incredible run. Not saying this is our soln but hopefully it's the brown paper bag people need to breath in.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 26 Ecmwf103

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:37 am

And here's the K uchera. Gets me 20 inches while SENJsnowman gets 40. Will never verify but it will help get me through the day. I'll speak with you all in March if it somehow does verify. BTW this is at 7 PM Saturday and it's still snowing

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 26 6z_eur10

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:45 am

I keep stressing it's when the ULL closes off, its strength and its position. That is what matters here. This is a closed off low at Ocean City MD. Very concentric and organized. Ideal. Is it right? Who knows, but that's the goal.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 26 Euroul18

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:49 am

The ULL close off will be determined largely by this critical part of the process. How strong is the piece that drops on the back of the trough and what angle does it occur at. Good luck getting that nailed down.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 26 Fate10

by **SENJsnowman** Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And here's the K uchera. Gets me 20 inches while SENJsnowman gets 40. Will never verify but it will help get me through the day. I'll speak with you all in March if it somehow does verify. BTW this is at 7 PM Saturday and it's still snowing

If somehow Big Momma/the Weather Gods ordain this to be the final outcome...I can't even...

I'll sign right now for half of that and throw all the rest of it north and west!!

by larryrock72 Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:15 am

SJ SNOWMAN.....If that verified.....we in trouble

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And here's the K uchera. Gets me 20 inches while SENJsnowman gets 40. Will never verify but it will help get me through the day. I'll speak with you all in March if it somehow does verify. BTW this is at 7 PM Saturday and it's still snowing

If somehow Big Momma/the Weather Gods ordain this to be the final outcome...I can't even...

I'll sign right now for half of that and throw all the rest of it north and west!!

Thats rediculoous snow map wow, i have 0 confidence that would happen especially the 40+ I sure hope it is right and curious anyone have a wind map foir that time frame? I presume this will be a all out B word on this run.

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