Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:19 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:6z RGEM would of been a bit hit if extrapolated out. It moves out the energy in the SW faster compared to the 0z run. It’ll be interesting to see if the CMC responds today and shifts west at 12z.

Yes, RGEM also in the EURO camp.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:22 am

The blue ‘x’ is where we need the southern energy to be. Perfectly aligned with the northern vort. But notice the GFS has it vacationing in New Mexico and Texas…

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 63018b10

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:26 am

The EURO has been made available for FREE

https://twitter.com/ecmwf/status/1485935823694532608?s=21

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:34 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It is extremely concerning that we’re still seeing the GFS, NAM and in part the CMC hold energy back. It’s mostly concerning because it’s a trend we have seen this season. The EURO is completely on its own, and if you remember also did a poor job forecasting last weekends storm. With an anomalous EPO and PNA ridge I would expect these upper air features to advance east as normal. But the ridge is seemingly trying to overtop our southern piece. I still don’t think that is right, and we saw more GEF members at 06z trend west compared to 00z. However, would love to see the GFS progress this energy east at 12z today. If it can, it GREATLY increases odds for a Godzilla this weekend.

It's quite common for phasing scenarios to not be resolved at this range. This phase is about 72 hours out. We've seen Boxing Day within 36 hours dramatically change phasing outcomes as well as Juno which was damn near game time. Phasing is way too complex to have any confidence this far out. That said I'm not saying this is going to work out and an OTS solution is absolutely on the table as well as direct hit. My point is I trust both the Euro/GFS equally at this point as well as their ensembles and that is not much until there is consensus and run/run consistency.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:39 am

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:41 am

Its an Off run but the 06z Euro conts to advertise a fully phased system with all the energy ejecting into the mean trough

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Ecmwf101

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:44 am

sroc4 wrote:Its an Off run but the 06z Euro conts to advertise a fully phased system with all the energy ejecting into the mean trough

YOu beat me to it! The trough is sharper and the energy around its base is strong than 00Z. Probably would have been a big hit! Not to be trusted yet, but pretty to look at.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Euro0611

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:57 am

sroc4 wrote:

Hahaha, Scott, this is too funny of a coincidence not to mention.

I JUST posted this in one of our FOX Weather slack channels (note the very first line) -- only to come here and see your artwork! Laughing

While the two heavy-weights of forecast models continue to duke it out, the NWS New York & NWS Boston are working in tandem. Pretty rare to see two forecast offices use the exact same verbiage in their Hazardous Weather Outlooks. Shows how wide-reaching & impactful this nor'easter has the potential to be...

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Bos_hw10

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Ny_hwo10

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:00 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:

Hahaha, Scott, this is too funny of a coincidence not to mention.

I JUST posted this in one of our FOX Weather slack channels (note the very first line) -- only to come here and see your artwork!

While the two heavy-weights of forecast models continue to duke it out, the NWS New York & NWS Boston are working in tandem. Pretty rare to see two forecast offices use the exact same verbiage in their Hazardous Weather Outlooks. Shows how wide-reaching & impactful this nor'easter has the potential to be...

Lol. Great minds Soul.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:20 am

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 87138010

EURO not backing down. EPS ticked west. Some members would have mixing issues. The OP was even more amped than 00z.

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:30 am

There are still enough members (note the secondary cluster near Bermuda) that show a lack of effective phasing for cause to pause. The op though as of 06Z is in the phased camp. Hopefully it remains that way.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Euro0612

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:34 am

If you want the sum of all hopes with regard to this potential event. Root for the 06Z Euro Control as it gets captured at Delmarva latitude. That is my nirvana with this and frankly one can dream can't they?

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Euroco11

by **mmanisca** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:39 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It is extremely concerning that we’re still seeing the GFS, NAM and in part the CMC hold energy back. It’s mostly concerning because it’s a trend we have seen this season. The EURO is completely on its own, and if you remember also did a poor job forecasting last weekends storm. With an anomalous EPO and PNA ridge I would expect these upper air features to advance east as normal. But the ridge is seemingly trying to overtop our southern piece. I still don’t think that is right, and we saw more GEF members at 06z trend west compared to 00z. However, would love to see the GFS progress this energy east at 12z today. If it can, it GREATLY increases odds for a Godzilla this weekend.

I agree 100% with you on this Frank. At least here on Long Island it seems as though all the models are hinting at a snow event.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:43 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO not backing down. EPS ticked west. Some members would have mixing issues. The OP was even more amped than 00z.

wow thats pretty clear consensus amoung the ensembles compared to the GEFS, I really hope the Eyuro is right, and remember this will probably do the NW SE thing at least once or twice or does the GFS win out, I hope not but like sroc im walking on eggshells. 12z should be interesting but even if it does not show any changes it is stil lfar out for proper sampling of the phasing as hehaw and others have stated.

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:47 am

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO not backing down. EPS ticked west. Some members would have mixing issues. The OP was even more amped than 00z.
wow thats pretty clear consensus amoung the ensembles compared to the GEFS, I really hope the Eyuro is right, and remember this will probably do the NW SE thing at least once or twice or does the GFS win out, I hope not but like sroc im walking on eggshells. 12z should be interesting but even if it does not show any changes it is stil lfar out for proper sampling of the phasing as hehaw and others have stated.

JMan it's a majority of the 51 members are some aspect of phasing, but there's still enough which don't. So Euro IMO ain't quite there yet. Again IMO. You are right though each run now does get more important but I won't be surprised to see GFS not budge until 00Z tonight or even tomorrow if this is truly going to happen.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:59 am

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO not backing down. EPS ticked west. Some members would have mixing issues. The OP was even more amped than 00z.
wow thats pretty clear consensus amoung the ensembles compared to the GEFS, I really hope the Eyuro is right, and remember this will probably do the NW SE thing at least once or twice or does the GFS win out, I hope not but like sroc im walking on eggshells. 12z should be interesting but even if it does not show any changes it is stil lfar out for proper sampling of the phasing as hehaw and others have stated.

JMan it's a majority of the 51 members are some aspect of phasing, but there's still enough which don't. So Euro IMO ain't quite there yet. Again IMO. You are right though each run now does get more important but I won't be surprised to see GFS not budge until 00Z tonight or even tomorrow if this is truly going to happen.

Yeah I know, just trying to keep hope alive, don't want anyone jumping off a building, we should make a thread for therapy with jman lol. Though snow obsession would be the first time I have treated that.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:28 am

Does not appear the 12z NAM will eject the southern energy.

Man...

by Carvin Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:31 am

Quick question are we saying still can get storm but maybe not as strong I’m kinda lost on the weather talk

by **amugs** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:34 am

We having fun yet?
Great discussion and not much form my camp other than as pointed out the energy is so far in la la land that we won't know until at best 0Z Wednesday.

I asked a few mets about this - Drag, McKim, Halzer that I know about why the energy is being held back. Variety of answers but a consensus is what am looking for in general.

NAM makes a nod to the Euro - tick tock tick tock At 54 much better but not quite there.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Namconus_z500_vort_us_fh54_trend.gif.24ddfad13bd3979a63665ba1d2fd13c9

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Namconus_z500_vort_us_fh54_trend.gif.24ddfad13bd3979a63665ba1d2fd13c9

Ride the Euro control been steadfast on its solution without wavering LOL!! Its also the snowiest.

busy day not much to add today as well.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:37 am

Well, it did TREND toward trying to eject the southern energy faster compared to 06z

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 13 Namconus-z500-vort-us-fh60-trend-thumb-gif-77e82a04ffa0fd159de6995badea4da2

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:39 am

Carvin wrote:Quick question are we saying still can get storm but maybe not as strong I’m kinda lost on the weather talk

It is either a strong storm that impacts the coast or no storm at all. I don't think there will be an 'in between' solution. All or nothing.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:41 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Well, it did TREND toward trying to eject the southern energy faster compared to 06z

We want that SW energy to be where at that time frame? It def comes at least a few hundred miles east but I presume we need a lot more than that, how much stock do you put in LR NAM? Normally I thought you do not really buy into the NAM at this range.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:47 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Carvin wrote:Quick question are we saying still can get storm but maybe not as strong I’m kinda lost on the weather talk

It is either a strong storm that impacts the coast or no storm at all. I don't think there will be an 'in between' solution. All or nothing.

Im going to respectfully disagree with this statement. I think because the ridge is still robust, even if less than ideal for a complete phase and crippling euro type soln doesnt happen, there is still an opportunity for a partial phase and eastern sections still eeking out a minor to mod event.

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:51 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Carvin wrote:Quick question are we saying still can get storm but maybe not as strong I’m kinda lost on the weather talk

It is either a strong storm that impacts the coast or no storm at all. I don't think there will be an 'in between' solution. All or nothing.

Im going to respectfully disagree with this statement. I think the ridge, even if less than ideal for a complete phase and crippling euro type soln doesnt happen, there is still an opportunity for a partial phase and eastern sections still eeking out a minor to mod event.

I agree with this. Especially if the 500mb trough tilt can go negative before it hits the coast. The models will often underdo how far back the precip field goes. Also, IMO regardless of the setup the nirvana solutions are special for a reason. They don't come cheap and they are like unicorns. Until you see locked and loaded consensus with 36 hours you have to know there is always a way out.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:52 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Well, it did TREND toward trying to eject the southern energy faster compared to 06z

We want that SW energy to be where at that time frame? It def comes at least a few hundred miles east but I presume we need a lot more than that, how much stock do you put in LR NAM? Normally I thought you do not really buy into the NAM at this range.

Well southern s/w is coming into the NAM's range (48ish hours), so I was hoping it would not hold it back. Ideally, I would have liked to see it over NM during that time and into Texas by 12z Friday.

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Carvin wrote:Quick question are we saying still can get storm but maybe not as strong I’m kinda lost on the weather talk

It is either a strong storm that impacts the coast or no storm at all. I don't think there will be an 'in between' solution. All or nothing.

Im going to respectfully disagree with this statement. I think because the ridge is still robust, even if less than ideal for a complete phase and crippling euro type soln doesnt happen, there is still an opportunity for a partial phase and eastern sections still eeking out a minor to mod event.

Possibly. I don't see 'partial' energy ejecting out of the SW. I think it all goes or none of it at all. We shall see

by **lglickman1** Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:58 am

Is there a sense of why the SW energy was being ejected on yesterday's runs but not on the overnight or this morning's runs?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:05 am

lglickman1 wrote:Is there a sense of why the SW energy was being ejected on yesterday's runs but not on the overnight or this morning's runs?

Eh, GFS had one or two runs where it did eject but its always been slower in doing so. I just think there are two model camps as Scott joked about. GFS vs EURO

by Sponsored content