Long Range Discussion 23.0

GEFS are also looking better

Good Lord

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:12z Canadian is going to show...a Godzilla

Madonne!!!

NICE!!!!!

I should say it is definitely west of 00z but the higher snow total are confined to eastern areas. I think it's also still trending like the GFS

Holy CMC! It is slow which means it was definitely captured

Much more phasing on the 12z GEFS. Would not surprise me if we see more members leaning west

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy CMC! It is slow which means it was definitely captured

Put that capture in Delmarva and that's nirvana. Just have to see how fast this can intensify and how that trough can tilt.

Frank_Wx wrote:Much more phasing on the 12z GEFS. Would not surprise me if we see more members leaning west

This is just me, but i'd rather have it right here now. As long as the ridge holds in west and that Atlantic ridge pushes on the Atlantic side this has a good chance to come inside to potentially sig inside the BM.

Changes aloft on the Canadian are also laughable. Look at the position of the southern s/w.

00z:



12z:

GEFS way west

00z:



12z:

I think CMC chased convection off the coast. The low should have been closer to the coast.

CMC definitely looks off at H5. The ULL should be over NC IMO

CMC is downright scary, 952mb?! almost inside BM, that literally would be a snowicane.

12Z GEFS and 06Z EPS are really close ensembles and ops at the 500mb. Euro has just a bit better western ridging. I think that is the difference right now...

This is a MONSTER storm. Wow

Frank_Wx wrote:This is a MONSTER storm. Wow

The CMC would be a HECS/BECS if it comes more west, i mean for us no? It would batter the coast and wind, well I won't go there. I cannot wait to see the SR models, they are going to be crazy.

Do we risk this coming to far west that places like NYC CT etc jersey coast to rain? or at least flirt with mixing? That would just be such a kick in the face.

Frank_Wx wrote:CMC definitely looks off at H5. The ULL should be over NC IMO

Definitely. Look at the height fields and more than likely it's tucked right to the coast.

12z EURO is gonna be big I bet.

12Z GFS starts to close off ULL around BM.  Just move that 100-150 miles SW. Also, don't expect models to get that right until close to game time. that's a very subtle thing.

Waiting, in agony, for the EURO.

If the EURO holds I’m going to name my first child after it

Frank_Wx wrote:If the EURO holds I’m going to name my first child after it

Kind of hard to get excited about the Euro as of late, even though yes I'm eagerly waiting. Last weekends storm was a go for quite some time on the euro until POOF gone lol.

I’ll dedicate a section of the forum to Jman and call it “John With The Wind”

Very little differences so far. Actually western ridge looks stronger

Frank_Wx wrote:I’ll dedicate a section of the forum to Jman and call it “John With The Wind”

BWAHAHAHA, thats great frank, so if the euro is right wind will be a big issue? I def do not want no power with the cold either honestly, though I do like a good B word and we know that all has do the wind not the amount of snow.

Positives so far is that the northern energy looks stronger and sharper, but unfortunately a negative is that the EURO is digging the southern energy a bit more westward than prior runs. So to me that’s a nod to the GFS. BUT it’s still more progressive than the GFS. Hmm let’s see