Long Range Discussion 23.0

Oh shoot, Tom Wasula!! Long Term looks like it might have written by Ray, the Office Lead. Cool, thanks, hyde!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:Notice how the whole trough shifted east on the 00z compared to 18z

This is a direct result of sloppy phasing and a poorly oriented northern stream

We really need 2 things:

1. Southern stream to eject out of the SW (which really does not seem to be a big concern anymore)

2. Northern stream to dig into the central CONUS and begin phasing with southern stream around the TN valley

If I had nothing else to look at except this, I’d say there’s no way in…..this slips east lol

What started as a promising night with the 00z NAM has now lead to back to back duds with the RGEM and now GFS. If EURO trends east overnight it will make me think the 'eastern' solutions have had merit all along. That said, the northern energy is still not properly sampled and we're having recon fly into that area tomorrow. Unfortunately, we need to temper excitement after this run and wait and see what happens tomorrow.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Notice how the whole trough shifted east on the 00z compared to 18z

This is a direct result of sloppy phasing and a poorly oriented northern stream

We really need 2 things:

1. Southern stream to eject out of the SW (which really does not seem to be a big concern anymore)

2. Northern stream to dig into the central CONUS and begin phasing with southern stream around the TN valley

If I had nothing else to look at except this, I’d say there’s no way in…..this slips east lol

Well the trough is positively tilted and the if you loop the run you can see there's minimal consolidation of the upper energy. If we had west based blocking...maybe.

Not good the GFS at surface anyways is a decent amount east of 18z and gives almost no impacts. This is going to be a very frustrating next 2-3 days.

Admittedly, the GFS has had the hot hand this season, so we’ll see.

00z GEFS coming in east of 18z GEFS

I want to see strong n/s piece drop in for large scale opportunity. I agree I don't see this slipping east as GFS is trying to show just based on the placement of the trough. However if we don't get strong enough n/s action this won't close off in time for our latitude.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Notice how the whole trough shifted east on the 00z compared to 18z

This is a direct result of sloppy phasing and a poorly oriented northern stream

We really need 2 things:

1. Southern stream to eject out of the SW (which really does not seem to be a big concern anymore)

2. Northern stream to dig into the central CONUS and begin phasing with southern stream around the TN valley

If I had nothing else to look at except this, I’d say there’s no way in…..this slips east lol

Well the trough is positively tilted and the if you loop the run you can see there's minimal consolidation of the upper energy. If we had west based blocking...maybe.

But that’s my point - with that ridge location and orientation, a positively tilted trough at that longitude is questionable, in my opinion.

Christ, just couldn't close out the day on the Super high. Oh well, we'll see what tomorrow brings...

Yup, we still got CMC and Euro but I am not staying up for those. this has already not been good 00z runs except NAM which now I think might be suspect especially past 60 hrs, if this ends up pulling a last weekend I will only follow the GFS from now on as it will be crowned king GFS. Still hoping though.

You guys still dont learn do you. If you live and die by the run, you end up being stressed out and haggard. I will put my stock with the one model which has held serve for days. The Euro. Considering the northern stream wasnt sampled yet.

adamfitz1969 wrote:You guys still dont learn do you. If you live and die by the run, you end up being stressed out and haggard. I will put my stock with the one model which has held serve for days. The Euro. Considering the northern stream wasnt sampled yet.

I think that is fair, but the point I'm making is the GFS has had the hot hand this winter and we have not seen any other models consistently show a euro-like solution. We'll find out soon enough. Tomorrow is going to be a big day of runs.

I hear CMC is better.

hyde345 wrote:I hear CMC is better.

It is better but still nowhere near the EURO in terms of large-scale impact. Verbatim, CMC shows a sharp cutoff for western/NW areas.

Greetings, all! I've been following this board for quite a few years now and decided to join. I enjoy the banter and informative discussions. And what better time to hop aboard than with a major storm possibly affecting the area. Former science and English teacher in special education with a passion for all things science, including weather. Looking forward to following along. Cheers! John

Frank_Wx wrote:

hyde345 wrote:I hear CMC is better.

It is better but still nowhere near the EURO in terms of large-scale impact. Verbatim, CMC shows a sharp cutoff for western/NW areas.

Baby steps. Further west and precip shield more robust N and W than 12z.

Frank the nam showed euro like run no? Or did u mean LR models? Glad to see dmc is still in a decent spot but could still go either way. The sampling and recon will help a lot.

Also just to add....

JT33 wrote:Greetings, all!  I've been following this board for quite a few years now and decided to join.  I enjoy the banter and informative discussions.  And what better time to hop aboard than with a major storm possibly affecting the area.  Former science and English teacher in special education with a passion for all things science, including weather.  Looking forward to following along.  Cheers!  John

Welcome John!! Welcome to the jungle.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank the nam showed euro like run no? Or did u mean LR models? Glad to see dmc is still in a decent spot but could still go either way. The sampling and recon will help a lot.

Yes NAM was definitely in EUROs camp

adamfitz1969 wrote:Also just to add....

IMO GFS is a crap model. It was right once or twice recently but it still has issues. I would trust Euro/Nam combo and then CMC. GFS is in the same camp as the ICON in my book.

adamfitz1969 wrote:Also just to add....

LOL

I really shouldn’t be surprised, but, admittedly, I am haha

JT33 wrote:Greetings, all!  I've been following this board for quite a few years now and decided to join.  I enjoy the banter and informative discussions.  And what better time to hop aboard than with a major storm possibly affecting the area.  Former science and English teacher in special education with a passion for all things science, including weather.  Looking forward to following along.  Cheers!  John

Welcome aboard, JT!! Glad to have you as a member!