Long Range Discussion 23.0
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Oh shoot, Tom Wasula!! Long Term looks like it might have written by Ray, the Office Lead. Cool, thanks, hyde!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Notice how the whole trough shifted east on the 00z compared to 18z
This is a direct result of sloppy phasing and a poorly oriented northern stream
We really need 2 things:
1. Southern stream to eject out of the SW (which really does not seem to be a big concern anymore)
2. Northern stream to dig into the central CONUS and begin phasing with southern stream around the TN valley
If I had nothing else to look at except this, I’d say there’s no way in…..this slips east lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
What started as a promising night with the 00z NAM has now lead to back to back duds with the RGEM and now GFS. If EURO trends east overnight it will make me think the 'eastern' solutions have had merit all along. That said, the northern energy is still not properly sampled and we're having recon fly into that area tomorrow. Unfortunately, we need to temper excitement after this run and wait and see what happens tomorrow.


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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
rb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Notice how the whole trough shifted east on the 00z compared to 18z
This is a direct result of sloppy phasing and a poorly oriented northern stream
We really need 2 things:
1. Southern stream to eject out of the SW (which really does not seem to be a big concern anymore)
2. Northern stream to dig into the central CONUS and begin phasing with southern stream around the TN valley
If I had nothing else to look at except this, I’d say there’s no way in…..this slips east lol
Well the trough is positively tilted and the if you loop the run you can see there's minimal consolidation of the upper energy. If we had west based blocking...maybe.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Not good the GFS at surface anyways is a decent amount east of 18z and gives almost no impacts. This is going to be a very frustrating next 2-3 days.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Admittedly, the GFS has had the hot hand this season, so we’ll see.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
00z GEFS coming in east of 18z GEFS

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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
I want to see strong n/s piece drop in for large scale opportunity. I agree I don't see this slipping east as GFS is trying to show just based on the placement of the trough. However if we don't get strong enough n/s action this won't close off in time for our latitude.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Notice how the whole trough shifted east on the 00z compared to 18z
This is a direct result of sloppy phasing and a poorly oriented northern stream
We really need 2 things:
1. Southern stream to eject out of the SW (which really does not seem to be a big concern anymore)
2. Northern stream to dig into the central CONUS and begin phasing with southern stream around the TN valley
If I had nothing else to look at except this, I’d say there’s no way in…..this slips east lol
Well the trough is positively tilted and the if you loop the run you can see there's minimal consolidation of the upper energy. If we had west based blocking...maybe.
But that’s my point - with that ridge location and orientation, a positively tilted trough at that longitude is questionable, in my opinion.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Christ, just couldn't close out the day on the Super high. Oh well, we'll see what tomorrow brings...
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Yup, we still got CMC and Euro but I am not staying up for those. this has already not been good 00z runs except NAM which now I think might be suspect especially past 60 hrs, if this ends up pulling a last weekend I will only follow the GFS from now on as it will be crowned king GFS. Still hoping though.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
You guys still dont learn do you. If you live and die by the run, you end up being stressed out and haggard. I will put my stock with the one model which has held serve for days. The Euro. Considering the northern stream wasnt sampled yet.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
adamfitz1969 wrote:You guys still dont learn do you. If you live and die by the run, you end up being stressed out and haggard. I will put my stock with the one model which has held serve for days. The Euro. Considering the northern stream wasnt sampled yet.
I think that is fair, but the point I'm making is the GFS has had the hot hand this winter and we have not seen any other models consistently show a euro-like solution. We'll find out soon enough. Tomorrow is going to be a big day of runs.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
I hear CMC is better.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
hyde345 wrote:I hear CMC is better.
It is better but still nowhere near the EURO in terms of large-scale impact. Verbatim, CMC shows a sharp cutoff for western/NW areas.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Greetings, all! I've been following this board for quite a few years now and decided to join. I enjoy the banter and informative discussions. And what better time to hop aboard than with a major storm possibly affecting the area. Former science and English teacher in special education with a passion for all things science, including weather. Looking forward to following along. Cheers! John
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Frank_Wx wrote:hyde345 wrote:I hear CMC is better.
It is better but still nowhere near the EURO in terms of large-scale impact. Verbatim, CMC shows a sharp cutoff for western/NW areas.
Baby steps. Further west and precip shield more robust N and W than 12z.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
Frank the nam showed euro like run no? Or did u mean LR models? Glad to see dmc is still in a decent spot but could still go either way. The sampling and recon will help a lot.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
JT33 wrote:Greetings, all! I've been following this board for quite a few years now and decided to join. I enjoy the banter and informative discussions. And what better time to hop aboard than with a major storm possibly affecting the area. Former science and English teacher in special education with a passion for all things science, including weather. Looking forward to following along. Cheers! John
Welcome John!! Welcome to the jungle.
jmanley32 wrote:Frank the nam showed euro like run no? Or did u mean LR models? Glad to see dmc is still in a decent spot but could still go either way. The sampling and recon will help a lot.
Yes NAM was definitely in EUROs camp
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Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0
JT33 wrote:Greetings, all! I've been following this board for quite a few years now and decided to join. I enjoy the banter and informative discussions. And what better time to hop aboard than with a major storm possibly affecting the area. Former science and English teacher in special education with a passion for all things science, including weather. Looking forward to following along. Cheers! John
Welcome aboard, JT!! Glad to have you as a member!
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» Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
» Long Range Discussion 22.0
» Long Range Thread 10.0
» Long Range Thread 24.0
» Long Range Thread 11.0
» Long Range Discussion 22.0
» Long Range Thread 10.0
» Long Range Thread 24.0
» Long Range Thread 11.0
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