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Long Range Discussion 23.0

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:00 am

The UKMET is way east and a non-event. HOWEVER, in my experience, it is also the model with the worst progressive (south/east) bias I’ve ever seen, so this was expected, in my opinion, and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Especially since it almost always the last model to shift westward.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:02 am

hyde345 wrote:
adamfitz1969 wrote:Also just to add....

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 25 Captur14

IMO GFS is a crap model. It was right once or twice recently but it still has issues. I would trust Euro/Nam combo and then CMC. GFS is in the same camp as the ICON in my book.

We've all been there in the times when ICON was the only model showing the snow solution and the thought crossed our minds "maybe this time the ICON is right!" No shame lol.
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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:06 am

rb924119 wrote:The UKMET is way east and a non-event. HOWEVER, in my experience, it is also the model with the worst progressive (south/east) bias I’ve ever seen, so this was expected, in my opinion, and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Especially since it almost always the last model to shift westward.

It's been way east every run.
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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:12 am

Zhukov1945 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:
adamfitz1969 wrote:Also just to add....

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 25 Captur14

IMO GFS is a crap model. It was right once or twice recently but it still has issues. I would trust Euro/Nam combo and then CMC. GFS is in the same camp as the ICON in my book.

We've all been there in the times when ICON was the only model showing the snow solution and the thought crossed our minds "maybe this time the ICON is right!"  No shame lol.

Yes, but then it's always wrong anyway.
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:45 am

0Z ECMWF OP does have Godzilla snows for NYC and points east. Though some places in the northeast, especially New England, have Roidzilla totals on it. Sharp cutoff though.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:48 am

Actually, on this run, even places on the Jersey shore have potential Roidzilla snows as shown through the qpf:

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 25 Ecmwf010

Given the setup though, New England is still favored for the heaviest snows.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:50 am

Canadian was just fine.  The n/s phase was just fine and consequently the ULL was closing off inland. That is what you want to see.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 25 Gem12

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:00 am

00Z Euro fairly steady. Not as intense as previous runs, but ULL track/close off pretty steady.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:15 am

A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:22 am

Just heard from 1010 wins for sat storm so far for they are thinking 6 -12 inches of snow along with strong Winds and travel Disrupted

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:54 am

06Z GFS finally showing evidence of closing off earlier. Not there yet for my tastes, but it's not moving away from the idea which is good.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:58 am

As always this will be a very difficult storm to nail down.  Dynamic nature very tough to get right.

I expect 00Z tonight to really start seeing much truer surface map representations.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:59 am

We’ll see what happens today…it’s only Wednesday after all…but I’m disheartened with the overnight trends. It’s pretty clear at 500mb the EURO trended towards the GFS eastern track (albeit still a fantastic storm for LI). We have seen a major development and that is the later phase as a result of lower heights across western Canada and the US west coast.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 25 Gfs_z500trend_namer_6

All the blue shading across western Canada is indicative of heights trending softer over the last 48 hours, which directly impacts the orientation and “dig” location of our northern stream energy. Instead of a phase happening over the central part of the country it is happening off the east coast. Too late for most, but not for *possibly* NYC east, and coastal New England.

I’m not say that will be the end result. Again, we’re in Wednesday now and recon will be heading into the storm. Look for that data to be available on tonight’s 00z runs. Today I’m looking to see if the phase, and closure of H5, can happen earlier so more people get into the heavier snows. We shall see

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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:00 am

heehaw453 wrote:As always this will be a very difficult storm to nail down.  Dynamic nature very tough to get right.

I expect 00Z tonight to really start seeing much truer surface map representations.
yes it’s is .Do you think this will be a all time storm for us snow lovers

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:07 am

frank 638 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:As always this will be a very difficult storm to nail down.  Dynamic nature very tough to get right.

I expect 00Z tonight to really start seeing much truer surface map representations.
yes it’s is .Do you think this will be a all time storm for us snow lovers

NYC in a decent spot IMO. It just depends on where we can get an ULL closure. It could be the difference between 3-6" and 12"+. More often than not these dynamic systems have big surprises one way or the other...

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:18 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:24 am

Well even euro and nam made shifts east. Now let me say I'm not live and die by model suite from one night but when every model takes a fairly Sig east shift it puts a damper on it and a dose of reality. Hoping it is just a windshield wiper effect. Even a moderate storm would be good but man I think we all wanted see yesterday's euro and nam type hit. What were the ensembles like for euro? Big day today for sure!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:29 am

One thing to consider here is that there will be ratios in some areas of at least 15:1 up to close to 25:1 or even a touch higher IMHO.  I haven’t looked too in depth at these sorts of details as we still need to nail down slp track, and when upper and mid level lows close and their positioning as well.

Hell of a Hunt

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by phil155 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:35 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:40 am

phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI
Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:41 am

phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

What is your location Phil?
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:44 am

jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI
Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

I think we are still in the game but the odds after last night have worsened.However, from what I have seen from the long range crew, an earlier phase and a negative tilt developing changes our odds for the better.Lot's of time for that to happen it is only Wednesday.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:45 am

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI
Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

I think we are still in the game but the odds after last night have worsened.However, from what I have seen from the long range crew, an earlier phase and a negative tilt developing changes our odds for the better.Lot's of time for that to happen it is only Wednesday.
yeah keep hope alive.
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Post by phil155 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:46 am

docstox12 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI

What is your location Phil?

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 am

jmanley32 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A good night for Jersey shore and LI. For those of us on the western and northern flank it’s getting dicey. Other than a couple of previous EURO runs it always has been.

Still not even the seventh inning but these shifts east tonight even the subtle shift of the EURO disconcerting.

Checking in this am and what happened last night is what I have expected with this storm.This season, the bias has been for storms to head S and E of us .Models last night picking up on that.Still early, but I think the Jersey Shore and LI will be the winners on this and up here CP, we will be on or near the cutoff lowering our totals.Earlier phasing and a negative tilt would save this for us.I think by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

Agreed 100% the trend this season has been S/E and the trend is your friend so it makes sense that this storm too is beging to follow that trend. I just hope it does not end up only being a storm for the shore and LI
Yup I could see how carolinas VA DE and SNJ get godzilla to roidzilla snows and the entire board other than a few far south jersey people see nothing. It def is not over at all but we need to see a shift back NW at some point I am hoping with the new data that could be tonight 00z, do not be too upset if 12z shows similar to last night and this morning or even more SE. Hey ray what happened to your statement that this could or would have plenty of room to come further NW? Just curious why you think the after the over nights. If I heard right News 12 just said likely a glancing blow with some light snow or flurries.

I think we are still in the game but the odds after last night have worsened.However, from what I have seen from the long range crew, an earlier phase and a negative tilt developing changes our odds for the better.Lot's of time for that to happen it is only Wednesday.
yeah keep hope alive.

Yep, as Doc says, cautious optimism.Anyway, it sure is a great time for the board a big winter storm on the prowl.Be back here tomorrow am for another look.
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