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Post by frank 638 Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:41 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:99.5 high temp for today thank you mother nature for not adding high humidity on to that....so dislike this weather!
same here even at the beach it’s hot as hell .I can’t wait for the fall weather

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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:40 am

https://www.foxnews.com/science/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-fill-olympic-size-swimming-pools-stratosphere

Ok, I’m posting this here. Regardless of the source, I directly oppose, and in no uncertain terms, flat out disagree with the “conclusion” drawn in this article by the NASA employee. Let’s think about this. Assuming their estimates are correct, in that this eruption added an additional 10% of the total Stratospheric water vapor into the layer. By any objective measure, then, this should have a net warming effect on that layer via exothermic processes (condensing from vapor to droplets, the freezing into crystals, all processes that release heat into the surrounding environment) and heat trapping properties of water vapor itself. I agree with them there. However, that’s the extent to which I agree. For those of you who watched my winter outlook discussion last year, you may recall how I explained the relationship between the Troposphere (where are) and the Stratosphere (the layer of the atmosphere above where we are) using considerations of thickness. For those who didn’t already see it, or who don’t remember, I believe we have separate thread for it that you can visit and watch the video. But basically, the atmosphere works to maintain an overall thickness, or depth, which is divided into sections separated by relatively stable boundaries. Think of a multilayer cake - the layers of icing are the stable boundaries, and the cake filling is each atmospheric layer. Now, these layers can expand and contract, but they always must stay between the icing, and, must always contain the same amount of mass (physical law).

Bringing our cake into the article, now, if we just added 10% more mass of water vapor into our Stratosphere, by physical law, then, that means that the volume of the stratosphere increased (which agrees with the separate idea of expansion via the thermodynamical reasons mentioned earlier). So if the Stratosphere is expanding, then in order to follow physical law, the Troposphere MUST contract. If expanding air warms, then what should contracting air do? Cools. So, all things being equal, we should expect to see a cooling trend globally.

However, there are caveats to this, as the location of the water vapor anomalies will effect changes in other processes. For example, if the water vapor is largely contained to the tropical Stratosphere, then this will SUCK for our winters, as it would work to strengthen the Stratospheric PV (see my video). But, if I gets displaced poleward, then the opposite would generally be true.

Another consideration is with regard to the MJO. If the vapor stays in the tropical Stratosphere, MJO and most convective activity would be suppressed. Third, is the distribution within a particular zone uniform? Or, does it get trapped in certain spots? If the latter, then this would have direct consequences on how our weather pattern gets set up.

This will be important to watch evolve, for sure, but I hope I presented a decent explanation as to why the blanket statement of “it’s going to warm our temperatures” is certainly not an accurate statement to make, in my opinion, because it frankly doesn’t even follow the physical and thermodynamical laws of our atmosphere, at least a high level lol

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Post by billg315 Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:15 pm

rb924119 wrote:https://www.foxnews.com/science/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-fill-olympic-size-swimming-pools-stratosphere

Ok, I’m posting this here. Regardless of the source, I directly oppose, and in no uncertain terms, flat out disagree with the “conclusion” drawn in this article by the NASA employee. Let’s think about this. Assuming their estimates are correct, in that this eruption added an additional 10% of the total Stratospheric water vapor into the layer. By any objective measure, then, this should have a net warming effect on that layer via exothermic processes (condensing from vapor to droplets, the freezing into crystals, all processes that release heat into the surrounding environment) and heat trapping properties of water vapor itself. I agree with them there. However, that’s the extent to which I agree. For those of you who watched my winter outlook discussion last year, you may recall how I explained the relationship between the Troposphere (where are) and the Stratosphere (the layer of the atmosphere above where we are) using considerations of thickness. For those who didn’t already see it, or who don’t remember, I believe we have separate thread for it that you can visit and watch the video. But basically, the atmosphere works to maintain an overall thickness, or depth, which is divided into sections separated by relatively stable boundaries. Think of a multilayer cake - the layers of icing are the stable boundaries, and the cake filling is each atmospheric layer. Now, these layers can expand and contract, but they always must stay between the icing, and, must always contain the same amount of mass (physical law).

Bringing our cake into the article, now, if we just added 10% more mass of water vapor into our Stratosphere, by physical law, then, that means that the volume of the stratosphere increased (which agrees with the separate idea of expansion via the thermodynamical reasons mentioned earlier). So if the Stratosphere is expanding, then in order to follow physical law, the Troposphere MUST contract. If expanding air warms, then what should contracting air do? Cools. So, all things being equal, we should expect to see a cooling trend globally.

However, there are caveats to this, as the location of the water vapor anomalies will effect changes in other processes. For example, if the water vapor is largely contained to the tropical Stratosphere, then this will SUCK for our winters, as it would work to strengthen the Stratospheric PV (see my video). But, if I gets displaced poleward, then the opposite would generally be true.

Another consideration is with regard to the MJO. If the vapor stays in the tropical Stratosphere, MJO and most convective activity would be suppressed. Third, is the distribution within a particular zone uniform? Or, does it get trapped in certain spots? If the latter, then this would have direct consequences on how our weather pattern gets set up.

This will be important to watch evolve, for sure, but I hope I presented a decent explanation as to why the blanket statement of “it’s going to warm our temperatures” is certainly not an accurate statement to make, in my opinion, because it frankly doesn’t even follow the physical and thermodynamical laws of our atmosphere, at least a high level lol

Obviously.
Laughing Laughing Wink
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Post by amugs Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:58 pm

Heat Misera using everything and anything they can get their hands on.
Buddy is in Norway and it's 40* at night, they need winter jackets. Summer over and the natives said it was warm for a few days and the rest have been cold, not cool but cold.

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Post by essexcountypete Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:33 pm

This is definitely my world right now...

State Drought Expands As Newark Sees Driest July Ever
Much of New Jersey received only a quarter to a half of normal rainfall totals in the past month.
Only 0.55 inches of rain fell in Newark in July, breaking the old record of 0.84 inches set in 1932.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/across-nj/amp/30826238/state-drought-expands-as-newark-sees-driest-july-ever
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Post by docstox12 Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:18 am

essexcountypete wrote:This is definitely my world right now...

State Drought Expands As Newark Sees Driest July Ever
Much of New Jersey received only a quarter to a half of normal rainfall totals in the past month.
Only 0.55 inches of rain fell in Newark in July, breaking the old record of 0.84 inches set in 1932.

https://patch.com/new-jersey/across-nj/amp/30826238/state-drought-expands-as-newark-sees-driest-july-ever

Wow, a 90 year record falls. That is significant and I hope we make up for it this winter with cold air in place.
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Post by essexcountypete Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:13 pm

We had a couple pop up sun showers just now and for a good three or four minutes it rained on one side of my house but not the other. My driveway has small puddles, my neighbors driveway got a few drops but stayed mostly dry. I was running back and forth to make sure it wasn't seeing things. My neighbors must think I'm nuts.
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:52 pm

Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 Bake_a11

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Post by amugs Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:44 pm

Extreme wx is going to be a norm as we move forward and will only ramp up. It not me, you other trace atmospheric gas but Cy less of the planet, sun and galaxy.



This along with a a moderate X flare with our wanning magnetosphere would knock us back to pre electrification days. Heck man's only been in this new era for 100 plus years as a majority. When will that happen is a good guess but some scientists belive within the next decades = many of our lifetimes sadly.

Time will tell.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:54 pm

Peeking at the “authoritative”  and early 2022-2023 Youtube weather forecasts for this winter, two things are evident:  1) Doc is buying that Russian fur hat and 2) below-average temps and above-average precipitation are on the table.

And heating oil. In seven days heating oil went from $4.30 to $4.45 a gallon yet oil is down $2.24 a barrel in the same week
Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605  Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:07 pm

dkodgis wrote:Peeking at the “authoritative”  and early 2022-2023 Youtube weather forecasts for this winter, two things are evident:  1) Doc is buying that Russian fur hat and 2) below-average temps and above-average precipitation are on the table.

And heating oil. In seven days heating oil went from $4.30 to $4.45 a gallon yet oil is down $2.24 a barrel in the same week
Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605  Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605

Natural Gas is $8.40 a cu ft and put it into perspective that a 350% increase over 2020 prices and 200% over last years.

Time start splitting some wood!!!

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Post by dkodgis Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:39 pm

I have 14 cord of hickory. I never thought I’d see the day where we get knocked over with high energy prices like this. I was joking about authoritative YouTube reports about winter but my goodness just imagine a cold winter like 2013-14 meeting these prices. I was filling up the house with 15 gallons of diesel 2x a week. I brought my yellow cans into NJ because I worked close by. Heating oil was $4.50. NJ diesel was a $1.25 less. Still hurt when the year before it was something like $2.35 a gallon. And so it goes, and so it goes…
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Post by frank 638 Mon Aug 15, 2022 9:18 pm

Hey everyone I hope u guys are having a wonderful summer!!! Can’t believe 3 more weeks until Labor Day time fly and I am happy fall is coming.we all know it’s been bone dry many of us has low to moderate drought conditions. We need rain bad I noticed many leaves and grass Is drying up I wonder how much longer will this last . The Longest drought I remember was in late 02 and 95

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:07 pm

dkodgis wrote:Peeking at the “authoritative”  and early 2022-2023 Youtube weather forecasts for this winter, two things are evident:  1) Doc is buying that Russian fur hat and 2) below-average temps and above-average precipitation are on the table.

And heating oil. In seven days heating oil went from $4.30 to $4.45 a gallon yet oil is down $2.24 a barrel in the same week
Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605  Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605
I was reading the other day, about the warnings that the English gov was putting out and I happened across this article.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-12/a-storm-brews-in-heating-oil-elements-by-javier-blas

Not going to be pretty..
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:26 pm

frank 638 wrote:Hey everyone I hope u guys are having a wonderful summer!!! Can’t believe 3 more weeks until Labor Day time fly and I am happy fall is coming.we all know it’s been bone dry many of us has low to moderate drought conditions. We need rain bad I noticed many leaves and grass Is drying up I wonder how much longer will this last  . The Longest drought I remember was in late 02 and 95  
Right? It is kinda crazy. on the one hand I like the nice weather especially on the weekend, M-F 9-5 I'm stuck inside in New Rochelle except to get lunch for about 10 mins of a walk. But don't get me wrong I like my job for the most part and I have a nice ceiling to just above floor windows but sadly they face the big building across street, I do have a nice tree in front of the window though. For those that know the area I work one floor up from Monroe College at 150 Huguenot.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:30 pm

amugs wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Peeking at the “authoritative”  and early 2022-2023 Youtube weather forecasts for this winter, two things are evident:  1) Doc is buying that Russian fur hat and 2) below-average temps and above-average precipitation are on the table.

And heating oil. In seven days heating oil went from $4.30 to $4.45 a gallon yet oil is down $2.24 a barrel in the same week
Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605  Banter Thread 7.0 - Page 15 1f605

Natural Gas is $8.40 a cu ft and put it into perspective that a 350% increase over 2020 prices and 200% over last years.

Time start splitting some wood!!!
Times like this I am glad I am not in a house yet, yeah it is older and rather raggedy but we pay dirt cheap rent for the area and since it is rent controlled only goes up 1-3%  a year.  We moved in in 2007 at $1300 for a large 2 BR and it is now in November going up to $1530 from $1500. I have been looking and you cant find this size for less than $2,500 now and if you want brand new your looking at mortgage prices.  I just worry about our landlords being even cheaper with the heat this year. Last year was bad enough, it was freezing at night and hot in the daytime. And they wait till the oil runs dry before refilling it so sometimes we go a day without heat at all!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Yesterday at 5:10 am

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spaghetti-sauce-under-threat-water-124539175.html
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Post by docstox12 Yesterday at 6:32 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spaghetti-sauce-under-threat-water-124539175.html

MAMA MIA ,there will not be any speecee spicey meat balls!!
The old Italian Grandma's I knew growing up would find a way around this somehow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48TewJlc6BA
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Post by docstox12 Yesterday at 7:13 am

frank 638 wrote:Hey everyone I hope u guys are having a wonderful summer!!! Can’t believe 3 more weeks until Labor Day time fly and I am happy fall is coming.we all know it’s been bone dry many of us has low to moderate drought conditions. We need rain bad I noticed many leaves and grass Is drying up I wonder how much longer will this last  . The Longest drought I remember was in late 02 and 95  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/concern-grows-as-severe-drought-conditions-take-over-in-eastern-part-of-orange-county/ar-AA10GOGH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4b4997bcccce46ed96dfbb5cc9eb53d5

This is what we have up here.
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Post by amugs Today at 9:46 am



Great video explains things about our Sun and its awakening plus what's down the road cycle wise

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom Today at 3:10 pm

docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spaghetti-sauce-under-threat-water-124539175.html

MAMA MIA ,there will not be any speecee spicey meat balls!!
The old Italian Grandma's I knew growing up would find a way around this somehow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48TewJlc6BA

great commercial..you always find the funniest clips!
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