Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:44 am

aiannone wrote:NAM Wind gusts:

jeeze, I figured this was go be a big issue. But with temps at least it will be a lightweight snow.

by **Sanchize06** Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:48 am

Could be wrong, but still not sure I love the orientation of the NS on this run early on like shown below. Would like to see it more N/S diving in early, then what it showed here. It leads to things being a little flatter and swinging the trough axis a little east I believe. Not really what you want to see if you're in the City or NW. Some positive changes made the run very similar, but could have been a lot better here I think.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 20 Namconus_z500_vort_us_19

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 20 Namconus_z500_vort_us_19

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 20 Namconus_z500_vort_us_25

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:55 am

I don't trust one run of the NAM, but I love what I saw. If we can get the energy not escape more NE instead of due east then all bets are off. However now seeing some consistency on the NAM is good. Stop with these run/run swings is important.

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:07 am

Hearing RGEM is a beaut.

by **MattyICE** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:09 am

As much as it feels like in this day and age we shouldn’t be this close (36 hours) to the start of an event with such uncertainty and various trends. But I think with a delicate setup like this with multiple vorts and phasing etc…that’s just the nature of this type of beast. We just happen to be on the edge so we care more. If this was waffling back and forth over Europe we would never even know it or care. All this to say we are not done with shifts and surprises and that includes right up to real time observations. We can look for convergence of guidance today and tonight and maybe we get it - but I doubt it with this sort of setup. Anything from a couple inches to a couple feet is literally still possible.

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:11 am

12z RGEM is digging that northern vort more than 6z just like the NAM

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:12 am

MattyICE wrote:As much as it feels like in this day and age we shouldn’t be this close (36 hours) to the start of an event with such uncertainty and various trends. But I think with a delicate setup like this with multiple vorts and phasing etc…that’s just the nature of this type of beast. We just happen to be on the edge so we care more. If this was waffling back and forth over Europe we would never even know it or care. All this to say we are not done with shifts and surprises and that includes right up to real time observations. We can look for convergence of guidance today and tonight and maybe we get it - but I doubt it with this sort of setup. Anything from a couple inches to a couple feet is literally still possible.

Yeah. Expect the 12Z GFS to show a few inches into nyc. i imagine it won't change its output much until 00z tonight if this is going to happen well.

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:16 am

12z NAM and RGEM aligning

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 20 Snku_a13

by Zhukov1945 Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:16 am

aiannone wrote:Hearing RGEM is a beaut.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 20 Rgem_m10

Best look we've had this whole storm. Heaviest snows shift west to LI and points NE

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:18 am

The RGEM is backing the heights up more just like the NAM. That's good as that means trough goes negative faster. That's key!

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 20 Rgem14

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:22 am

Look at the heights being backed up here. Very nice look. Not the look of a coastal scraper at all.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 20 Regem210

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:27 am

I just hope by now these mesos are starting to sniff this out truly. However, there are finer details that are not known for a bit. But i can say that anytime you have a closed ULL with backed up heights around Ocean City MD you are at least in the game.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:35 am

heehaw453 wrote:I just hope by now these mesos are starting to sniff this out truly. However, there are finer details that are not known for a bit. But i can say that anytime you have a closed ULL with backed up heights around Ocean City MD you are at least in the game.

Hee the NAM looked to do that and it was a broader ULL and allowed the energy to escape east - did not close off the eastern flank as much and was not as sharp.