Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Carvin wrote:Ok so would we say we have more of a west lean today than yesterday?

I would not say that, no. Not that there’s definite merit - but there’s plenty eastern leans today. So. Who knows.

it really just feels like the models are just toying with us at this point, building up hope to break it down

UKIE is way east. I thought by now we would be reaching a consensus by now with the data ingested In the models last night. It may very well come down to watching the real time meso charts tomorrow.

Little known inside baseball: every forecaster's least-favorite part of a winter storm is sitting down to make a snowmap.

But here's my shot at one after much consideration.

I think this is going to be a wicked blizzard for parts of SE #MAwx and outside of that prob fairly avg. pic.twitter.com/06jFikYuLb

— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 27, 2022

Somebody mentioned from American wx that heights out west are coming in higher than forecast including by the base of the vort in Utah. Can anyone confirm? Could have implications if so.

At this point I will be happy with 4-8 inches of snow .this storm is driving us crazy.I feel like the Yankees are trying to be in first place

I dont know much, but it seems that all along, except for 2 days ago when we were all excited, the storm has always been east, and that trend seems to be consistent, unfortunately

lglickman1 wrote:I dont know much, but it seems that all along, except for 2 days ago when we were all excited, the storm has always been east, and that trend seems to be consistent, unfortunately

Not really. Models all came west last night, except for the GFS.

frank 638 wrote:At this point I will be happy with 4-8 inches of snow .this storm is driving us crazy.I feel like the Yankees are trying to be in first place

What about 2-4"?

aiannone wrote:

and there's the expected adjustment of the GFS towards the ECMWF solution pic.twitter.com/QpNt5HKD6Z

— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 27, 2022

He's a master at this. Made teh call last year with this on the Super Bowl storm and the following storm.

Sorry gang, no power, internet and service at school here since 9:30AM just trying to catch up here of 5 pages of posts!! Phone and computer went dead at 10AM!!!

Need that NS energy to be more North South but to help capture the PVA as Frank said. BUT the PVS is getting closer to teh coast so we shall see. Ryan (aka QuietAce) welcome back kid. SO glad yuo can join us.
AL(gae) you lurking my man??

PVA

Frank_Wx wrote:

frank 638 wrote:At this point I will be happy with 4-8 inches of snow .this storm is driving us crazy.I feel like the Yankees are trying to be in first place

What about 2-4"?

at this point I’d sign for that lol

RJB8525 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

frank 638 wrote:At this point I will be happy with 4-8 inches of snow .this storm is driving us crazy.I feel like the Yankees are trying to be in first place

What about 2-4"?

at this point I’d sign for that lol

I will sign for a snow shower up here,LOL.

So Frank you really think this won't even be a mothrazilla? Just nuisance snow? What a shame if so.

Frank_Wx wrote:

frank 638 wrote:At this point I will be happy with 4-8 inches of snow .this storm is driving us crazy.I feel like the Yankees are trying to be in first place

What about 2-4"?

as my mom would say gotttttaaaa here

HRRR and #K NAM both have snow tomorrow morning that may be an inch. It will lead to slick driving conditions being so cold!

Not great trends on the EURO so far

Frank_Wx wrote:

Looks to me like euro is digging more at 12z no?

Frank_Wx wrote:Not great trends on the EURO so far

Frank_Wx wrote:Not great trends on the EURO so far

I think we should go get drinks this storm is driving everyone crazy

Wow it actually recovers and look better than 06z now

Well, it is not the GFS that's for sure. These snow totals assume 10:1 ratios so maybe add 1-3 inches on top

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow it actually recovers and look better than 06z now

See now the Euro is just playing games like a mean girlfriend. Gosh this as you said is giving me agita lol, not so much but it is downright frustrating having no idea whats go happen. I mean mets cant even put out a map with any confidence, 36 hrs away? thats rediculous. Some have but have cautioned.

Frank_Wx wrote:

which way did it shift if at all? Man I hate mass, they go get slammed, I do not see anyway we get back to that now. If we do it'll be a snow miracle.

The EURO CLOSED H5 AT 48 HOURS

12Z SATURDAY

I TOLD MUGS AND JANET YESTERDAY WE NEED THIS TO CLOSE OFF AT 09Z. WE ARE 3 HOURS AWAY FROM IT. MADONNA MIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last 4 runs of the EURO at 500mb