NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 24.0

+38
richb521
freezerburn
moleson
WeatherBob
Grselig
essexcountypete
algae888
frank 638
docstox12
jimv45
SENJsnowman
MattyICE
adamfitz1969
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
dsix85
Koroptim
phil155
dkodgis
weatherwatchermom
mmanisca
sroc4
mikeypizano
nutleyblizzard
jmanley32
TheAresian
heehaw453
Snow88
hyde345
Sparky Sparticles
SoulSingMG
aiannone
lglickman1
Irish
rb924119
amugs
SNOW MAN
Frank_Wx
42 posters

Page 6 of 21 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 13 ... 21  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by hyde345 Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:28 am

Even if a storm does get close enough to give the coast some snow this has screw zone written all over it for N and W.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by jimv45 Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:51 am

That is fine with me Hyde trying to get things back to normal here, what a mess still.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1163
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:57 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Snow88 wrote:No talk about vday weekend storm ? Getting interesting on the ensembles with the low being more phased.

I’m monitoring it. No point in getting too invested yet. 

The southern energy is too fast right now. Northern energy is having a hard time catching up. No -NAO or 50/50 so we’re going to need perfect timing. 

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 A424fd10

Lets not forget that as has been the theme all season long, since we don't have the Atlantic on our side we have time and time again had the poorly timed west coast energy crashing the coast stomping down the WC ridge right as we are trying to get our energy to come up the coast.  The result has been either OTS because of the progressive Atlantic or coastal sections working out.  Because the trailing energy is still so far out there tyhe last minute trends inside 3days will likely be no different for this set up.  For better or worse.  

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 West_c11

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:07 am

heehaw453 wrote:Maybe banter, mods move if appropriate.

Enough data has been captured to say Rb nailed the 500mb pattern for meteorological winter!  I will say better than any LR forecast I've seen by anyone.  It was extremely impressive analysis, videos and teachings.  December's call really impressed the hell out of me with the anomalous RNA killing December.  I thought we'd have better shots with the favorable AO/NAO.

I will most likely IMBY wind up with BN to sig BN snowfall this year and that is a testament to good patterns are not causality for deterministic snowfall.  Requires luck in any pattern!  But the pattern produced very nicely for coastal communities which haven't had such snowfall in years.  

Please keep up the great work!

Thanks, heehaw (and Frank, SENJ), but we are only in the third quarter. I’m not spiking the football yet lol December, January, and February (so far), admittedly, have turned out very well, at least with respect to the pattern evolution. That said, we still have the rest of this month and March to get through before we can put an overall grade on the forecast.

One thing that I’m not happy about is the relative lack of snowfall for areas north and west of I-95, as I thought that if the expected pattern evolved as expected, which, it has, then the snow would follow for the entirety of our forum. As you mentioned, it really has only verified for our eastern and southern residents. So, that definitely has me a bit frustrated, but we still have time, and I think we see a return of the west-based -NAO in March, which could help our interior crew catch up in a hurry.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6080
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 30
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

amugs likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:10 am

From weather StromTracker 0 everything is on the table here

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 FLDb6eaWYAAC0rP?format=jpg&name=medium

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:12 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Snow88 wrote:No talk about vday weekend storm ? Getting interesting on the ensembles with the low being more phased.

I’m monitoring it. No point in getting too invested yet. 

The southern energy is too fast right now. Northern energy is having a hard time catching up. No -NAO or 50/50 so we’re going to need perfect timing. 

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 A424fd10

Lets not forget that as has been the theme all season long, since we don't have the Atlantic on our side we have time and time again had the poorly timed west coast energy crashing the coast stomping down the WC ridge right as we are trying to get our energy to come up the coast.  The result has been either OTS because of the progressive Atlantic or coastal sections working out.  Because the trailing energy is still so far out there tyhe last minute trends inside 3days will likely be no different for this set up.  For better or worse.  

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 West_c11

This, but as a partial counter, we’ve also seen a seasonal tendency this year to substantially retract/slow the southern stream/lead energy while simultaneously speeding up the northern stream/secondary energy as lead time decreases. I’ve not looked at this threat, but just the factors highlighted in these two posts would seemingly support heehaw’s and SENJ/doc’s hypothesis that this ends up as an event for south and east of I-95 or a miss wide-right, all other factors being ignored.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6080
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 30
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Frank_Wx, sroc4, amugs and RJB8525 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:40 pm

I think this V-Day threat is on life support based off D5 modeling. May need a team of specialists to save it even for mild impacts.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:05 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I think this V-Day threat is on life support based off D5 modeling.  May need a team of specialists to save it even for mild impacts.  

lol! lol! lol! Certainly cant argue based on 12z data

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fthumbs.gfycat.com%2FSaneWelllitAustralianshelduck-size_restricted

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by phil155 Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:17 pm

Not even getting my hopes up for this one Sad

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 239
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 08, 2022 6:03 pm

phil155 wrote:Not even getting my hopes up for this one Sad

I think a well timed phase isn't going to happen and the main s/s energy will slide well outside the BM.  However, if the n/s can interact with the s/s moisture transport then this could drop some snow.  It will depend on how much digging the n/s can do, but that's the path to anything IMO.

700mb moisture
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Northe10

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 08, 2022 7:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Maybe banter, mods move if appropriate.

Enough data has been captured to say Rb nailed the 500mb pattern for meteorological winter!  I will say better than any LR forecast I've seen by anyone.  It was extremely impressive analysis, videos and teachings.  December's call really impressed the hell out of me with the anomalous RNA killing December.  I thought we'd have better shots with the favorable AO/NAO.

I will most likely IMBY wind up with BN to sig BN snowfall this year and that is a testament to good patterns are not causality for deterministic snowfall.  Requires luck in any pattern!  But the pattern produced very nicely for coastal communities which haven't had such snowfall in years.  

Please keep up the great work!

Thanks, heehaw (and Frank, SENJ), but we are only in the third quarter. I’m not spiking the football yet lol December, January, and February (so far), admittedly, have turned out very well, at least with respect to the pattern evolution. That said, we still have the rest of this month and March to get through before we can put an overall grade on the forecast.

One thing that I’m not happy about is the relative lack of snowfall for areas north and west of I-95, as I thought that if the expected pattern evolved as expected, which, it has, then the snow would follow for the entirety of our forum. As you mentioned, it really has only verified for our eastern and southern residents. So, that definitely has me a bit frustrated, but we still have time, and I think we see a return of the west-based -NAO in March, which could help our interior crew catch up in a hurry.

rb, patterns can and do change , even one as long lasting as this has been for the N and W crew, so until there is no time left, I will keep up hopes for a big one up here.March and even April up in the LHV can produce big time.In early April when my gf at the time, to be wife, moved into a new home, the next day there was 13 inches of snow.March 2018 there was 27 inches with a few hours of 3 to 4 inch rates under a band.Hey, we wait MONTHS from May to November for winter weather so every day of snow time is valuable!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7615
Reputation : 220
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 71
Location : Monroe NY

amugs and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:10 am

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Maybe banter, mods move if appropriate.

Enough data has been captured to say Rb nailed the 500mb pattern for meteorological winter!  I will say better than any LR forecast I've seen by anyone.  It was extremely impressive analysis, videos and teachings.  December's call really impressed the hell out of me with the anomalous RNA killing December.  I thought we'd have better shots with the favorable AO/NAO.

I will most likely IMBY wind up with BN to sig BN snowfall this year and that is a testament to good patterns are not causality for deterministic snowfall.  Requires luck in any pattern!  But the pattern produced very nicely for coastal communities which haven't had such snowfall in years.  

Please keep up the great work!

Thanks, heehaw (and Frank, SENJ), but we are only in the third quarter. I’m not spiking the football yet lol December, January, and February (so far), admittedly, have turned out very well, at least with respect to the pattern evolution. That said, we still have the rest of this month and March to get through before we can put an overall grade on the forecast.

One thing that I’m not happy about is the relative lack of snowfall for areas north and west of I-95, as I thought that if the expected pattern evolved as expected, which, it has, then the snow would follow for the entirety of our forum. As you mentioned, it really has only verified for our eastern and southern residents. So, that definitely has me a bit frustrated, but we still have time, and I think we see a return of the west-based -NAO in March, which could help our interior crew catch up in a hurry.

rb, patterns can and do change , even one as long lasting as this has been for the N and W crew, so until there is no time left, I will keep up hopes for a big one up here.March and even April up in the LHV can produce big time.In early April when my gf at the time, to be wife, moved into a new home, the next day there was 13 inches of snow.March 2018 there was 27 inches with a few hours of 3 to 4 inch rates under a band.Hey, we wait MONTHS from May to November for winter weather so every day of snow time is valuable!

Oo I know, doc. I’m not giving up hope yet either Smile if I did, then it would mean that I have zero confidence in the remainder of my forecast, and that definitely isn’t the case. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. The factors that I outlined early on have gotten me to this point, so I’d be a fool to abandon them now when I don’t see a legitimate reason to. I’m merely commenting candidly on the situation thus far, that’s all. And I agree, every opportunity for snow from first flake to last is what I live for, regardless of the time of year haha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6080
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 30
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:27 am

I watched tonight’s runs come in while I was working, and I must say that I’m quite amused lol the GEFS continues to absolutely beat up on the EPS in the extended, as the EPS has now caved to the same progression as the GEFS, whereby we go through this transient period (similarly to right now) in the closing week of February, but then both ensembles make pretty obvious moves toward yet another jet extension and subsequent commencement of the reestablishment of an Aleutian vortex as energy associated with the new jet extension is progged to phase with energy splitting off from the brief Alaskan trough and retrograding westward in response to the weakness between the retrograding Pacific ridge and WPO ridging to the north. This would then work to kick the retrograding Pacific ridge back to the east, and is identical to the progression that we will see in the coming days to reestablish the PNA ridge. This evolution is right on track, and should result in a return to a wintry H5 pattern (note the distinction this time lol) as we open March. The question becomes: How does this evolve as proceed through the month?

I have to look a bit deeper, but I like the idea of the MJO biasing cold, at least into the opening week of March, while the Stratospheric PV begins to start losing influence, but only gradually. This is the same evolution that I’ve been following since my initial thoughts, and if it rings true, it should allow heights to build across Canada while simultaneously trapping a time-mean trough to the south via the processes that I mentioned a few days ago (I think?). Should be an interesting month, for sure, in my opinion Smile

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6080
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 30
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:22 am

The weather channel has 2-4 inches of snow for Sunday

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2560
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 39
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:55 am

models trended better overnight and this morning. still no phase with the Southern stream as it's more northern stream dominant now and some mid level forcing with the passage of the cold front on Sunday. Still another couple of days for the models to figure this all out
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5284
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 60
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by algae888 Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:57 am

Another factor is we need that ridge out West to hold The euro seems to push it East and break it down. it's the least snowy solution out of all the other guidance I believe it's too quick to do so we shall see
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5284
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 60
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:29 am

GFS is looking much better at 06Z. The moisture transport is consolidating better due to better interactions with n/s and s/s.  This is 1 run showing this kind of system, but each run seems to look better.  You want to see consistent progression at this range.  Let's see if 12Z builds on this or just walks backwards.

note the consolidation of the moisture transport
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs111

Note the energy around the trough and n/s coming in strong with meridional interaction to the trough.
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs216

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:30 am

Al my brother is back!! God Bless and hope all is well!! This is our 4th storm to dig to the GOM this year. Mid range dance here sucking us in as we have this winter. Need these trends to continue butbwish it were 72 hours instead of days. Here is from Nikhil Teravidi map.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Flilag10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:40 am

You want a bomb??? Drop this circled piece in on the backside and Hoochi Coochi Momma!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Fliiso10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Frank_Wx and dolphins222 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:13 am

Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs-de33
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf104

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

kalleg likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:51 am

sroc4 wrote:Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs-de33
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf104


Also pay attention to the trailing energy in the images above.  This particular energy is still way out S and W of the Aleutian Islands as of 7am this am.  If you look at the image below its embedded within the circle labeled 3.  

For additional reference as of 7am this am, the energy that is the "S" piece is the circle labeled 1, and the "N" piece is actually the circle labeled 2 along with some of the leading energy in the circled labeled 3.  Our S energy, currently in the northern Gulf Of Alaska, either interacts with or does not the sub trop jet stream energy, which is really the energy that initially generates the storm.  The "S" energy, and N energy will simply add to it or not.  Will either steer it OTS or steer it closer to the coast; all depending on how much interaction occurs, and the timing of the N and S pieces.

So you can see 1) why the models cont to shift the exact timing and positioning of the main players from run to run still and from model to model, and 2) Why all season we have seen the final soln hold out until we are inside 2-3days.  The beating of a dead horse comment coming, but since the Atlantic has not been of help it's been the Pac side of things that have dictated the timing of these interactions.  With the last piece to the puzzle, circle number 3, not coming ashore until Saturday, and the N piece, circle number 2, not entering northern Canada until later Thursday, (perhaps very early Friday), and the S piece just entering the extreme NW NA throughout today one can make a strong argument that states dont get to caught up in todays finer details on the models.   Thursday 12z is when I think we begin to se the meeting of the minds(GFS and Euro), and it's more likely 12z Friday that we can start adjusting the fine tune knob at the earliest.  

Focus on H5:  The timing, position AND strength of the three main pieces I highlighted above and below using the 06z GFS as you're reference to build off what we want to see.

1) S piece must be out ahead of the N piece.  If not it WILL get shunted OTS
2) How strong are the S and N piece. I believe Ray had mentioned this point, but as we get in close and sampling for models improves as the energy comes ashore the trend has been to show more robust energy than earlier modeled.  So far that trend is starting to hold true to form.  
3) IF the S piece is out ahead, by how much and what's the timing between the interaction of N and S energy relative to the coast
4) WE TRACK!!!! What a Face
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs-de13

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

kalleg, heehaw453 and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:32 am

sroc4 wrote:Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs-de33
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf104

I don't like the strung out look of the 'southern' energy as that may be the reason why it's progressing faster than the northern piece. Would like to see it separate and become its own entity over the next couple of days. Would also solve the lower heights issue I'm noticing over the northeast.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:43 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs-de33
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf104

I don't like the strung out look of the 'southern' energy as that may be the reason why it's progressing faster than the northern piece. Would like to see it separate and become its own entity over the next couple of days. Would also solve the lower heights issue I'm noticing over the northeast.

Thanks Frank- now I know exactly what to track today! So for the heights issue, we want those black lines hooking more due NE up from the Carolinas and Delmarva than the ENE that they are currently heading?

SENJsnowman

Posts : 996
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 49
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:01 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Gfs-de33
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf104

I don't like the strung out look of the 'southern' energy as that may be the reason why it's progressing faster than the northern piece. Would like to see it separate and become its own entity over the next couple of days. Would also solve the lower heights issue I'm noticing over the northeast.

Thanks Frank- now I know exactly what to track today! So for the heights issue, we want those black lines hooking more due NE up from the Carolinas and Delmarva than the ENE that they are currently heading?

You want the n/s coming down strong and hard on the back side of the 500mb trough to bring it neutral more quickly. Once neutral as the energy consolidates the trough has a much better shot at going negative before it hits the coast which pulls moisture back much more efficiently. If the n/s interaction is poor or that energy is weak this is 1-3" even at the coast.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:48 am


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

CPcantmeasuresnow and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 21 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 13 ... 21  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum