Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

[heehaw453]

2/13-2/14 threat definitely of interest.  Cannot be denied there are ingredients there.  Below EPS is a much better look than has been and would render some local impact.  Do we continue to build on this or just walk backwards a bit?  I'm going with a graze on eastern zones until there is more evidence that this is something better.  

EPS.  I'd like to see a more vertical orientation on the ridge to slide that n/s energy down for better phasing which brings that trough to negative state before it gets close to the coast.  The ridge kind of loses its strength and this trough would probably spawn LP that slides outside of BM for a graze. Also, remember w/out Atlantic blocking there is no margin for error. It's either all right with the phase or it's minimal impacts.

[amugs]

2/13-2/14 threat definitely of interest.  Cannot be denied there are ingredients there.  Below EPS is a much better look than has been and would render some local impact.  Do we continue to build on this or just walk backwards a bit?  I'm going with a graze on eastern zones until there is more evidence that this is something better.  

EPS.  I'd like to see a more vertical orientation on the ridge to slide that n/s energy down for better phasing which brings that trough to negative state before it gets close to the coast.  The ridge kind of loses its strength and this trough would probably spawn LP that slides outside of BM for a graze.  Also, remember w/out Atlantic blocking there is no margin for error.  It's either all right with the phase or it's minimal impacts.

This is going to be what our 3rd, 4th big storm that has no blocking - ala 50/50 or NAO or even a Scan block heck a N AO would help. Without any of those this is going to be very frustrating as Doc says once the pattern settles in that's what you can expect. The blocking we had in Nov and Dec was basically wasted for teh stormy period after once the pattern flipped. Can't align the these and why snow is so remarkable.

IF again a big IF this MJO plot has substance and can come to fruition then we may just may have some blocking help in Phase 3 to get the opportunities for a good storm or two or three as it breaks down as well. The ol Archambault event.

[hyde345]

Even if a storm does get close enough to give the coast some snow this has screw zone written all over it for N and W.

[jimv45]

That is fine with me Hyde trying to get things back to normal here, what a mess still.

[sroc4]

No talk about vday weekend storm ? Getting interesting on the ensembles with the low being more phased.

I’m monitoring it. No point in getting too invested yet. 

The southern energy is too fast right now. Northern energy is having a hard time catching up. No -NAO or 50/50 so we’re going to need perfect timing. 

Lets not forget that as has been the theme all season long, since we don't have the Atlantic on our side we have time and time again had the poorly timed west coast energy crashing the coast stomping down the WC ridge right as we are trying to get our energy to come up the coast.  The result has been either OTS because of the progressive Atlantic or coastal sections working out.  Because the trailing energy is still so far out there tyhe last minute trends inside 3days will likely be no different for this set up.  For better or worse.  

[rb924119]

Maybe banter, mods move if appropriate.

Enough data has been captured to say Rb nailed the 500mb pattern for meteorological winter!  I will say better than any LR forecast I've seen by anyone.  It was extremely impressive analysis, videos and teachings.  December's call really impressed the hell out of me with the anomalous RNA killing December.  I thought we'd have better shots with the favorable AO/NAO.

I will most likely IMBY wind up with BN to sig BN snowfall this year and that is a testament to good patterns are not causality for deterministic snowfall.  Requires luck in any pattern!  But the pattern produced very nicely for coastal communities which haven't had such snowfall in years.  

Please keep up the great work!

Thanks, heehaw (and Frank, SENJ), but we are only in the third quarter. I’m not spiking the football yet lol December, January, and February (so far), admittedly, have turned out very well, at least with respect to the pattern evolution. That said, we still have the rest of this month and March to get through before we can put an overall grade on the forecast.

One thing that I’m not happy about is the relative lack of snowfall for areas north and west of I-95, as I thought that if the expected pattern evolved as expected, which, it has, then the snow would follow for the entirety of our forum. As you mentioned, it really has only verified for our eastern and southern residents. So, that definitely has me a bit frustrated, but we still have time, and I think we see a return of the west-based -NAO in March, which could help our interior crew catch up in a hurry.

[amugs]

From weather StromTracker 0 everything is on the table here

[rb924119]

No talk about vday weekend storm ? Getting interesting on the ensembles with the low being more phased.

I’m monitoring it. No point in getting too invested yet. 

The southern energy is too fast right now. Northern energy is having a hard time catching up. No -NAO or 50/50 so we’re going to need perfect timing. 

Lets not forget that as has been the theme all season long, since we don't have the Atlantic on our side we have time and time again had the poorly timed west coast energy crashing the coast stomping down the WC ridge right as we are trying to get our energy to come up the coast.  The result has been either OTS because of the progressive Atlantic or coastal sections working out.  Because the trailing energy is still so far out there tyhe last minute trends inside 3days will likely be no different for this set up.  For better or worse.  

This, but as a partial counter, we’ve also seen a seasonal tendency this year to substantially retract/slow the southern stream/lead energy while simultaneously speeding up the northern stream/secondary energy as lead time decreases. I’ve not looked at this threat, but just the factors highlighted in these two posts would seemingly support heehaw’s and SENJ/doc’s hypothesis that this ends up as an event for south and east of I-95 or a miss wide-right, all other factors being ignored.

[heehaw453]

I think this V-Day threat is on life support based off D5 modeling. May need a team of specialists to save it even for mild impacts.

[sroc4]

I think this V-Day threat is on life support based off D5 modeling.  May need a team of specialists to save it even for mild impacts.  

Certainly cant argue based on 12z data

[phil155]

Not even getting my hopes up for this one

[heehaw453]

Not even getting my hopes up for this one

I think a well timed phase isn't going to happen and the main s/s energy will slide well outside the BM.  However, if the n/s can interact with the s/s moisture transport then this could drop some snow.  It will depend on how much digging the n/s can do, but that's the path to anything IMO.

700mb moisture

[docstox12]

Maybe banter, mods move if appropriate.

Enough data has been captured to say Rb nailed the 500mb pattern for meteorological winter!  I will say better than any LR forecast I've seen by anyone.  It was extremely impressive analysis, videos and teachings.  December's call really impressed the hell out of me with the anomalous RNA killing December.  I thought we'd have better shots with the favorable AO/NAO.

I will most likely IMBY wind up with BN to sig BN snowfall this year and that is a testament to good patterns are not causality for deterministic snowfall.  Requires luck in any pattern!  But the pattern produced very nicely for coastal communities which haven't had such snowfall in years.  

Please keep up the great work!

Thanks, heehaw (and Frank, SENJ), but we are only in the third quarter. I’m not spiking the football yet lol December, January, and February (so far), admittedly, have turned out very well, at least with respect to the pattern evolution. That said, we still have the rest of this month and March to get through before we can put an overall grade on the forecast.

One thing that I’m not happy about is the relative lack of snowfall for areas north and west of I-95, as I thought that if the expected pattern evolved as expected, which, it has, then the snow would follow for the entirety of our forum. As you mentioned, it really has only verified for our eastern and southern residents. So, that definitely has me a bit frustrated, but we still have time, and I think we see a return of the west-based -NAO in March, which could help our interior crew catch up in a hurry.

rb, patterns can and do change , even one as long lasting as this has been for the N and W crew, so until there is no time left, I will keep up hopes for a big one up here.March and even April up in the LHV can produce big time.In early April when my gf at the time, to be wife, moved into a new home, the next day there was 13 inches of snow.March 2018 there was 27 inches with a few hours of 3 to 4 inch rates under a band.Hey, we wait MONTHS from May to November for winter weather so every day of snow time is valuable!

[rb924119]

Maybe banter, mods move if appropriate.

Enough data has been captured to say Rb nailed the 500mb pattern for meteorological winter!  I will say better than any LR forecast I've seen by anyone.  It was extremely impressive analysis, videos and teachings.  December's call really impressed the hell out of me with the anomalous RNA killing December.  I thought we'd have better shots with the favorable AO/NAO.

I will most likely IMBY wind up with BN to sig BN snowfall this year and that is a testament to good patterns are not causality for deterministic snowfall.  Requires luck in any pattern!  But the pattern produced very nicely for coastal communities which haven't had such snowfall in years.  

Please keep up the great work!

Thanks, heehaw (and Frank, SENJ), but we are only in the third quarter. I’m not spiking the football yet lol December, January, and February (so far), admittedly, have turned out very well, at least with respect to the pattern evolution. That said, we still have the rest of this month and March to get through before we can put an overall grade on the forecast.

One thing that I’m not happy about is the relative lack of snowfall for areas north and west of I-95, as I thought that if the expected pattern evolved as expected, which, it has, then the snow would follow for the entirety of our forum. As you mentioned, it really has only verified for our eastern and southern residents. So, that definitely has me a bit frustrated, but we still have time, and I think we see a return of the west-based -NAO in March, which could help our interior crew catch up in a hurry.

rb, patterns can and do change , even one as long lasting as this has been for the N and W crew, so until there is no time left, I will keep up hopes for a big one up here.March and even April up in the LHV can produce big time.In early April when my gf at the time, to be wife, moved into a new home, the next day there was 13 inches of snow.March 2018 there was 27 inches with a few hours of 3 to 4 inch rates under a band.Hey, we wait MONTHS from May to November for winter weather so every day of snow time is valuable!

Oo I know, doc. I’m not giving up hope yet either if I did, then it would mean that I have zero confidence in the remainder of my forecast, and that definitely isn’t the case. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. The factors that I outlined early on have gotten me to this point, so I’d be a fool to abandon them now when I don’t see a legitimate reason to. I’m merely commenting candidly on the situation thus far, that’s all. And I agree, every opportunity for snow from first flake to last is what I live for, regardless of the time of year haha

[rb924119]

I watched tonight’s runs come in while I was working, and I must say that I’m quite amused lol the GEFS continues to absolutely beat up on the EPS in the extended, as the EPS has now caved to the same progression as the GEFS, whereby we go through this transient period (similarly to right now) in the closing week of February, but then both ensembles make pretty obvious moves toward yet another jet extension and subsequent commencement of the reestablishment of an Aleutian vortex as energy associated with the new jet extension is progged to phase with energy splitting off from the brief Alaskan trough and retrograding westward in response to the weakness between the retrograding Pacific ridge and WPO ridging to the north. This would then work to kick the retrograding Pacific ridge back to the east, and is identical to the progression that we will see in the coming days to reestablish the PNA ridge. This evolution is right on track, and should result in a return to a wintry H5 pattern (note the distinction this time lol) as we open March. The question becomes: How does this evolve as proceed through the month?

I have to look a bit deeper, but I like the idea of the MJO biasing cold, at least into the opening week of March, while the Stratospheric PV begins to start losing influence, but only gradually. This is the same evolution that I’ve been following since my initial thoughts, and if it rings true, it should allow heights to build across Canada while simultaneously trapping a time-mean trough to the south via the processes that I mentioned a few days ago (I think?). Should be an interesting month, for sure, in my opinion

[frank 638]

The weather channel has 2-4 inches of snow for Sunday

[algae888]

models trended better overnight and this morning. still no phase with the Southern stream as it's more northern stream dominant now and some mid level forcing with the passage of the cold front on Sunday. Still another couple of days for the models to figure this all out

[algae888]

Another factor is we need that ridge out West to hold The euro seems to push it East and break it down. it's the least snowy solution out of all the other guidance I believe it's too quick to do so we shall see

[heehaw453]

GFS is looking much better at 06Z. The moisture transport is consolidating better due to better interactions with n/s and s/s.  This is 1 run showing this kind of system, but each run seems to look better.  You want to see consistent progression at this range.  Let's see if 12Z builds on this or just walks backwards.

note the consolidation of the moisture transport


Note the energy around the trough and n/s coming in strong with meridional interaction to the trough.

[amugs]

Al my brother is back!! God Bless and hope all is well!! This is our 4th storm to dig to the GOM this year. Mid range dance here sucking us in as we have this winter. Need these trends to continue butbwish it were 72 hours instead of days. Here is from Nikhil Teravidi map.

[amugs]

You want a bomb??? Drop this circled piece in on the backside and Hoochi Coochi Momma!

[sroc4]

Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

[sroc4]

Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

Also pay attention to the trailing energy in the images above.  This particular energy is still way out S and W of the Aleutian Islands as of 7am this am.  If you look at the image below its embedded within the circle labeled 3.  

For additional reference as of 7am this am, the energy that is the "S" piece is the circle labeled 1, and the "N" piece is actually the circle labeled 2 along with some of the leading energy in the circled labeled 3.  Our S energy, currently in the northern Gulf Of Alaska, either interacts with or does not the sub trop jet stream energy, which is really the energy that initially generates the storm.  The "S" energy, and N energy will simply add to it or not.  Will either steer it OTS or steer it closer to the coast; all depending on how much interaction occurs, and the timing of the N and S pieces.

So you can see 1) why the models cont to shift the exact timing and positioning of the main players from run to run still and from model to model, and 2) Why all season we have seen the final soln hold out until we are inside 2-3days.  The beating of a dead horse comment coming, but since the Atlantic has not been of help it's been the Pac side of things that have dictated the timing of these interactions.  With the last piece to the puzzle, circle number 3, not coming ashore until Saturday, and the N piece, circle number 2, not entering northern Canada until later Thursday, (perhaps very early Friday), and the S piece just entering the extreme NW NA throughout today one can make a strong argument that states dont get to caught up in todays finer details on the models.   Thursday 12z is when I think we begin to se the meeting of the minds(GFS and Euro), and it's more likely 12z Friday that we can start adjusting the fine tune knob at the earliest.  

Focus on H5:  The timing, position AND strength of the three main pieces I highlighted above and below using the 06z GFS as you're reference to build off what we want to see.

1) S piece must be out ahead of the N piece.  If not it WILL get shunted OTS
2) How strong are the S and N piece. I believe Ray had mentioned this point, but as we get in close and sampling for models improves as the energy comes ashore the trend has been to show more robust energy than earlier modeled.  So far that trend is starting to hold true to form.  
3) IF the S piece is out ahead, by how much and what's the timing between the interaction of N and S energy relative to the coast
4) WE TRACK!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

I don't like the strung out look of the 'southern' energy as that may be the reason why it's progressing faster than the northern piece. Would like to see it separate and become its own entity over the next couple of days. Would also solve the lower heights issue I'm noticing over the northeast.

[SENJsnowman]

Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

I don't like the strung out look of the 'southern' energy as that may be the reason why it's progressing faster than the northern piece. Would like to see it separate and become its own entity over the next couple of days. Would also solve the lower heights issue I'm noticing over the northeast.

Thanks Frank- now I know exactly what to track today! So for the heights issue, we want those black lines hooking more due NE up from the Carolinas and Delmarva than the ENE that they are currently heading?

[heehaw453]

Pretty simple folks.  Here is your differences between snow potential and a swing and miss.  GFS vs Euro respectively.  

The key is if the S piece can get out ahead of the N piece.  If it can as the 00z and even more so the 6z GFS is currently depicting then you will get interactions into the back side of the S energy and it will act to tilt our trough towards neutral, perhaps even neg, and develop a storm closer to the coast and get precip into the area.  If not then the N flow keeps the trough positive and progressive like the euro shows.  

How much interaction and how far N&W we can get the precip will be entirely on the timing and strength of these interactions and if we can tilt the trough.  It goes without say, I think, that areas along the coast are def favored in this set up, but everyone is still in play for accumulation still.  

There is still a long way to go with this folks, for better or worse. Dont get too high and dont get too low.   

I don't like the strung out look of the 'southern' energy as that may be the reason why it's progressing faster than the northern piece. Would like to see it separate and become its own entity over the next couple of days. Would also solve the lower heights issue I'm noticing over the northeast.

Thanks Frank- now I know exactly what to track today! So for the heights issue, we want those black lines hooking more due NE up from the Carolinas and Delmarva than the ENE that they are currently heading?

You want the n/s coming down strong and hard on the back side of the 500mb trough to bring it neutral more quickly. Once neutral as the energy consolidates the trough has a much better shot at going negative before it hits the coast which pulls moisture back much more efficiently. If the n/s interaction is poor or that energy is weak this is 1-3" even at the coast.

[sroc4]

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