Long Range Thread 24.0

[Frank_Wx]

Keep discussions specific to long range pattern changes and possible storm threats.  

We’ll enter a bit of a lull period after this weekends storm, but according to Ray and from what I can tell on current guidance, it will be short lived and we’ll be back in a cold regime tracking snowstorms.

[SNOW MAN]

Local Met on Thursdays does an extended forecast for next weekend. Today he said after a brief mild spell next week there will be another plunge of cold air and possibly another East coast storm on the weekend of 2/5-2/6.

[amugs]

Rotate Map 90* in your mind Counter clockwise to see the USA - COLD Look here!

Interesting shift on the 06z GFS ENS for a cold spell in approx a week's time in association with a polar NW'ly...Plenty of time for change but I would say there's more of a chance of this one coming off. pic.twitter.com/fHI6pHdJ2z

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) January 27, 2022

[rb924119]

I know this isn’t the focus right now, but as expected, the GFS caved and now supports the other global ensembles and ideas presented on the February evolution, as Frank noted above.

Oo, and, by the way, February 6th-9th may be our next window for a sizable storm threat

[amugs]

I know this isn’t the focus right now, but as expected, the GFS caved and now supports the other global ensembles and ideas presented on the February evolution, as Frank noted above.

Oo, and, by the way, February 6th-9th may be our next window for a sizable storm threat

MJO in Phase three after COD by EURO - this would be a banger for February!!
2 Day thaw then the cold gets jack hammered, rifled right back in brother!!

[amugs]

AND..........THE PV............ELONGATES YET AGAIN - look at what Hunga Tonga shockwaves may be doing to the PV?? This is incredible and is likely teh culprit:

In both analyses & forecasts, there currently seems to be an unusually large amount of gravity wave activity in the the polar night jet (visible in GFS, ECMWF & GEOS). This is giving the polar vortex an oddly ragged appearance, despite its otherwise very coherent structure. pic.twitter.com/Zbee9pWsQZ

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) January 28, 2022

[Irish]

I know this isn’t the focus right now, but as expected, the GFS caved and now supports the other global ensembles and ideas presented on the February evolution, as Frank noted above.

Oo, and, by the way, February 6th-9th may be our next window for a sizable storm threat

Was just seeing that the 8th-9th looked all jazzed up! Love It!

[rb924119]

AND..........THE PV............ELONGATES YET AGAIN - look at what Hunga Tonga shockwaves may be doing to the PV?? This is incredible and is likely teh culprit:

In both analyses & forecasts, there currently seems to be an unusually large amount of gravity wave activity in the the polar night jet (visible in GFS, ECMWF & GEOS). This is giving the polar vortex an oddly ragged appearance, despite its otherwise very coherent structure. pic.twitter.com/Zbee9pWsQZ

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) January 28, 2022

Just my humble opinion, but I think this is a stretch lol I think that there are atmospheric reasons that this would happen, which have already been discussed.

[lglickman1]

As this storm starts to wind down, is there anything on the horizon that looks promising?

[amugs]

As this storm starts to wind down, is there anything on the horizon that looks promising?

Yes possibly 6-9th time frame or Friday ish for HV and NWNJ.

[aiannone]

Well then. Snowpack and boundary trending south with a LP forming south of us…

[Irish]

Yup, with the current storm basically all but wrapped up and it was a beauty, it's time to turn our attention back to the long range!

[SoulSingMG]

Well then. Snowpack and boundary trending south with a LP forming south of us…

Didn't you literally call this yesterday or the day before? lol

[amugs]

Unmet was on this 1st.

[Sparky Sparticles]

What's happening later this week?
I see temps are forecast to be in the 40's and some rain on Thursday & Friday, yet someone on another forum said that's going to be a snow event, a few more inches!
Which is the truth, please, oh great mighty prognosticators?

[Irish]

What's happening later this week?
I see temps are forecast to be in the 40's and some rain on Thursday & Friday, yet someone on another forum said that's going to be a snow event, a few more inches!
Which is the truth, please, oh great mighty prognosticators?

Probably will depend on your location. Maybe more if a N&W show event?

[amugs]

Pressure snow gradient is what this storm looks to ride. Very 1979's, 80's and 1993/94 type of track.

Follow the white on this map and there is your gradient that the storm track would most likely be.

Buckle up peeps maybe a pretty active Feb.

[amugs]

What's happening later this week?
I see temps are forecast to be in the 40's and some rain on Thursday & Friday, yet someone on another forum said that's going to be a snow event, a few more inches!
Which is the truth, please, oh great mighty prognosticators?

Sparky models have trended much cooler with the pattern Thurs and Fri. Advertising 50's last week now 40ish. This storm and the E NAO have been a help as well as the EPO and PNA rebuilding.

[aiannone]

[Irish]

Crazy, was just reading how that storm is gonna be all rain. No?

[hyde345]

Crazy, was just reading how that storm is gonna be all rain. No?

Still early, but definitely needs to be watched. Gfs has all rain, CMC rain to mix, Euro and Ukie the coldest.

[aiannone]

0z Ukie for Friday

[Snow88]

Models are shifting south with that

[Sparky Sparticles]

Sparky models have trended much cooler with the pattern Thurs and Fri. Advertising 50's last week now 40ish. This storm and the E NAO have been a help as well as the EPO and PNA rebuilding.

So, so far still rain over the NYC area? Good. Our cars are so plowed & snowblowered under we usually just wait and let nature take its course. One of the few good qualities of city living - you can walk everywhere and leave the car where it is for a week if you have to, take a bus, cab or light rail if you need to travel anywhere.

PS - For now I'm ignoring those maps showing snow that just posted. I really *want* this to be rain, but now I see I shouldn't be too surprised if it isn't.

[heehaw453]

Watch the ensembles for Friday threat window.  The EPS continues to show a more favorable look for those NW of I95 with banana building in.  I95 battleground, SE of I95 probably going to be tough.  I would like to see High pressure oozing down a bit faster for the I95 to have a legit shot. That maybe a function of how strong low pressure is along the front. The stronger it is the more likely cold air is delayed.  It is February which is peak climo for I95 and that banana high look is one that will deliver some good cold, so definitely have to watch it.

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