Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

[heehaw453]

Looks like Fri/Sat falling into place a bit more?

My opinion is no.  Without the SE ridge being beaten down we just have a very poor antecedent air mass.  That is a function of a poor Atlantic among other things.  We won't get the storm to slow down for aforementioned reasons to allow colder air to work in and outside of I81 Binghamton area I don't see this having a chance for any meaningful snow.  Maybe some c-1" further west in NEPA, EPA.

Our snow valve turned off end of January   It happens...

[SoulSingMG]

While this weekend's storm is unlikely to bring notable snowfall to our area, the potential exists for strong to perhaps even damaging winds late Saturday as the low bombs out over the Gulf of Maine and temps free-fall behind it.

[heehaw453]

I think the Canadian global has the right idea for Saturday based on the synoptic setup.  Hoping for cold air in time for a progressive storm will fail most every time in these parts and almost always be overdone on models.  GFS/Euro IMO are too aggressive with I81/NEPA snowfall.

3-5" Scranton-Binghamton makes sense to me and C-1" for most of the area.

[heehaw453]

Also, after Saturday will most likely be the end of road for winter weather for most folks on this board. This  500mb has good model support across guidance. Hostile EPO/NAM combo to set in which will keep cold air bottled up in CA and allow the ugly SE ridge to flex its muscles.  Any change to that pattern would be after 3rd week of March.  So let's hope for an overperformer on Saturday.

[phil155]

Also, after Saturday will most likely be the end of road for winter weather for most folks on this board. This  500mb has good model support across guidance. Hostile EPO/NAM combo to set in which will keep cold air bottled up in CA and allow the ugly SE ridge to flex its muscles.  Any change to that pattern would be after 3rd week of March.  So let's hope for an overperformer on Saturday.

Would be nice if the saturday system over performs but with the way this winter has gone I don't have much hope

[dkodgis]

https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/winter-bomb-cyclone-expected-to-hit-east-coast-this-weekend/

[Snow88]

6z Euro moved more east for Saturday

[docstox12]

NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

[hyde345]

NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

It's not going to be all rain. Models have trended east with the low and colder. The further N and W you are the better. My high on Saturday went from 40 to 36. Euro gives a significant snow event. Although I think it's too aggressive with the cold air it is a possibility. This needs to be watched.

[TheAresian]

Winter Storm Watch up for my area. I know I might lose my snow lover's card, but I liked the 70 degrees I had on Sunday and the idea of the NWS calling for 7-12 doesn't fill me with the joy it would have a month ago.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

Disagree somewhat on that Doc.

This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.

Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.

[docstox12]

NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

Disagree somewhat on that Doc.

This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.

Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.

As always, will be pleasantly surprised like yesterday, if this works out for us.Being pessimistic because of this "D" winter so far.I expect nothing but will be happy with something,LOL.

Anyway, I need a bit more to hit 30 inches here, looks better than 29,LOL.

[heehaw453]

Thread for Saturday started.

[heehaw453]

NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

Disagree somewhat on that Doc.

This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.

Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.

As always, will be pleasantly surprised like yesterday, if this works out for us.Being pessimistic because of this "D" winter so far.I expect nothing but will be happy with something,LOL.

Anyway, I need a bit more to hit 30 inches here, looks better than 29,LOL.

You will make it to 30! LoL.

[amugs]

This would suck if it verifies! Watch it does...where were you in Jan or Feb??

[rb924119]

Mugsy, I think that’s real based on my longstanding ideas, but one edit I think will be that we see more west-based -NAO signature show up with with time as we get toward the last few days of March and then into April based on what I’m briefly looking at. This aligns well with my update back in February when I mentioned that last MJO outlook, and said I thought my initial call for the NAO to return in March might have been a bit premature. It looks like that might be the case, and April will feature it. Too little, too late for snow, most likely*, but not impossible. However, if my further analysis supports this, then the idea of an ugly April, at least to start, also holds merit, and is something that I felt would happen (though did/do think it flips during Week 2 or 3 of April for good). More thoughts to come on this this week as time permits.

[amugs]

WINTER STILL HAS SOME "BITE" LEFT..
The only reason I am not waving the winter surrender flag is due to the modeled warming of the northern pole region. This would classify as a "Polar Vortex" split causing all sorts of mischief by end of the month in #Europe and #NorthAmerica! pic.twitter.com/JA5Sskm1iG

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) March 15, 2022

One last hurrah!

[amugs]

Back up the post above with this.

Forecast models have what is known as a “split” of the polar vortex late month and that has me concerned for more cold late March. This is likely to interrupt any spring patterns across Eastern North America. Sorry spring lovers. Enjoy this warmup. pic.twitter.com/nBAthsTHNU

— StormTrackerSacher (@TrackerSacher) March 15, 2022

[amugs]

WXBell Summer Forecast - Where do I sign.



The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:

[amugs]

Triple peat? Nina may do it like the Chicago Bulls!

Also, La Niña three-peats (triple dips?) are very rare—only two exist in our more reliable historical record going back to 1950 and both occurred after major El Niño events, which our current event did not. The time evolution of the Niño-3.4 index for the two La Niña three-peats is featured in the darker blue lines in the image below. It is also interesting that out of the eight double-dip La Niñas in our historical record, three ended up evolving into an El Niño for the third winter (red lines) and the remaining three ended up on the cooler side, close to La Niña thresholds, but were ultimately classified as ENSO-neutral winters.



Reference: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-three-bean-salad

[amugs]

"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck." Yesterday's ECMWF forecast resembled a reflective event (aka stretched #polarvortex) & today's GFS confirmed it with all the trimmings. Details in the blog: https://t.co/Gg8N2KHLUk pic.twitter.com/SXPOXsZaE2

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) March 16, 2022

Back to winter ??? Possibly as the PV breaks down

[MattyICE]

[sroc4]

As has been stated perhaps one last stand from old man winter showing up last five days of March and into maybe first 2-3 days of April. Tomorrow will be pool weather though.

[weatherwatchermom]

WXBell Summer Forecast - Where do I sign.



The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:

If this means we are not going to have a super hot summer..I will sign as well!!

[Snow88]

Thread is too quiet lol

[Frank_Wx]

Thread is too quiet lol

-EPO and west based -NAO setting up for a transient period of time late month into April. The tropical wave that has hindered our pattern the last couple of weeks is projected to dissipate as well. I could see how a late season snowstorm comes together for the area...

[phil155]

Thread is too quiet lol

-EPO and west based -NAO setting up for a transient period of time late month into April. The tropical wave that has hindered our pattern the last couple of weeks is projected to dissipate as well. I could see how a late season snowstorm comes together for the area...

Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies

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