NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 24.0

+38
richb521
freezerburn
moleson
WeatherBob
Grselig
essexcountypete
algae888
frank 638
docstox12
jimv45
SENJsnowman
MattyICE
adamfitz1969
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
dsix85
Koroptim
phil155
dkodgis
weatherwatchermom
mmanisca
sroc4
mikeypizano
nutleyblizzard
jmanley32
TheAresian
heehaw453
Snow88
hyde345
Sparky Sparticles
SoulSingMG
aiannone
lglickman1
Irish
rb924119
amugs
SNOW MAN
Frank_Wx
42 posters

Page 20 of 21 Previous  1 ... 11 ... 19, 20, 21  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:08 pm

I think the Canadian global has the right idea for Saturday based on the synoptic setup.  Hoping for cold air in time for a progressive storm will fail most every time in these parts and almost always be overdone on models.  GFS/Euro IMO are too aggressive with I81/NEPA snowfall.

3-5" Scranton-Binghamton makes sense to me and C-1" for most of the area.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Gem14

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:57 pm

Also, after Saturday will most likely be the end of road for winter weather for most folks on this board. This  500mb has good model support across guidance. Hostile EPO/NAM combo to set in which will keep cold air bottled up in CA and allow the ugly SE ridge to flex its muscles.  Any change to that pattern would be after 3rd week of March.  So let's hope for an overperformer on Saturday.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Gefs43

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by phil155 Wed Mar 09, 2022 1:18 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Also, after Saturday will most likely be the end of road for winter weather for most folks on this board. This  500mb has good model support across guidance. Hostile EPO/NAM combo to set in which will keep cold air bottled up in CA and allow the ugly SE ridge to flex its muscles.  Any change to that pattern would be after 3rd week of March.  So let's hope for an overperformer on Saturday.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Gefs43


Would be nice if the saturday system over performs but with the way this winter has gone I don't have much hope

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 239
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by dkodgis Wed Mar 09, 2022 6:58 pm

https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/winter-bomb-cyclone-expected-to-hit-east-coast-this-weekend/
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1860
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Snow88 Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:04 am

6z Euro moved more east for Saturday
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 33
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:39 am

NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7615
Reputation : 220
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 71
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by hyde345 Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:00 am

docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

It's not going to be all rain. Models have trended east with the low and colder. The further N and W you are the better. My high on Saturday went from 40 to 36. Euro gives a significant snow event. Although I think it's too aggressive with the cold air it is a possibility. This needs to be watched.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by TheAresian Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:16 am

Winter Storm Watch up for my area. I know I might lose my snow lover's card, but I liked the 70 degrees I had on Sunday and the idea of the NWS calling for 7-12 doesn't fill me with the joy it would have a month ago.

TheAresian
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 125
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2019-11-13
Location : Painted Post, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:26 am

docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

Disagree somewhat on that Doc.

This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.

Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6829
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 101
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:37 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

Disagree somewhat on that Doc.

This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.

Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.

As always, will be pleasantly surprised like yesterday, if this works out for us.Being pessimistic because of this "D" winter so far.I expect nothing but will be happy with something,LOL.

Anyway, I need a bit more to hit 30 inches here, looks better than 29,LOL.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7615
Reputation : 220
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 71
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:56 am

Thread for Saturday started.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:04 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.

Disagree somewhat on that Doc.

This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.

Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.

As always, will be pleasantly surprised like yesterday, if this works out for us.Being pessimistic because of this "D" winter so far.I expect nothing but will be happy with something,LOL.

Anyway, I need a bit more to hit 30 inches here, looks better than 29,LOL.

You will make it to 30! LoL.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Sat Mar 12, 2022 11:05 am

This would suck if it verifies! Watch it does...where were you in Jan or Feb??

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Cmc_en10
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Ecmwf_12

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:38 am

Mugsy, I think that’s real based on my longstanding ideas, but one edit I think will be that we see more west-based -NAO signature show up with with time as we get toward the last few days of March and then into April based on what I’m briefly looking at. This aligns well with my update back in February when I mentioned that last MJO outlook, and said I thought my initial call for the NAO to return in March might have been a bit premature. It looks like that might be the case, and April will feature it. Too little, too late for snow, most likely*, but not impossible. However, if my further analysis supports this, then the idea of an ugly April, at least to start, also holds merit, and is something that I felt would happen (though did/do think it flips during Week 2 or 3 of April for good). More thoughts to come on this this week as time permits.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6080
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 30
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Tue Mar 15, 2022 2:42 pm



One last hurrah!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:18 pm

Back up the post above with this.


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:02 pm

WXBell Summer Forecast - Where do I sign.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 June_August_2022_Forecast

The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Ecmwf_seasonal_monthly_avgs_avg_conus_t2m_c_anom_season_mostrecent_6633600

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Cansips_all_avg_conus_t2m_c_anom_season_mostrecent_9312000

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:22 pm

Triple peat? Nina may do it like the Chicago Bulls!

Also, La Niña three-peats (triple dips?) are very rare—only two exist in our more reliable historical record going back to 1950 and both occurred after major El Niño events, which our current event did not. The time evolution of the Niño-3.4 index for the two La Niña three-peats is featured in the darker blue lines in the image below. It is also interesting that out of the eight double-dip La Niñas in our historical record, three ended up evolving into an El Niño for the third winter (red lines) and the remaining three ended up on the cooler side, close to La Niña thresholds, but were ultimately classified as ENSO-neutral winters.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 ENSOblog_3yr_evolution_nino3.4_SST_graph_20220310

Reference: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-three-bean-salad

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:02 pm



Back to winter ??? Possibly as the PV breaks down

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by MattyICE Wed Mar 16, 2022 7:49 pm

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 D59f8810

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 137
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 37
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:41 am

As has been stated perhaps one last stand from old man winter showing up last five days of March and into maybe first 2-3 days of April. Tomorrow will be pool weather though.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 D75a5010
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 A07a7610

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:17 am

amugs wrote:WXBell Summer Forecast - Where do I sign.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 June_August_2022_Forecast

The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Ecmwf_seasonal_monthly_avgs_avg_conus_t2m_c_anom_season_mostrecent_6633600

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Cansips_all_avg_conus_t2m_c_anom_season_mostrecent_9312000

If this means we are not going to have a super hot summer..I will sign as well!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3265
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 58
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Snow88 Sat Mar 19, 2022 9:28 pm

Thread is too quiet lol
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 33
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:18 am

Snow88 wrote:Thread is too quiet lol

-EPO and west based -NAO setting up for a transient period of time late month into April. The tropical wave that has hindered our pattern the last couple of weeks is projected to dissipate as well. I could see how a late season snowstorm comes together for the area...


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by phil155 Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Snow88 wrote:Thread is too quiet lol

-EPO and west based -NAO setting up for a transient period of time late month into April. The tropical wave that has hindered our pattern the last couple of weeks is projected to dissipate as well. I could see how a late season snowstorm comes together for the area...

Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 239
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

amugs and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 20 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 20 of 21 Previous  1 ... 11 ... 19, 20, 21  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum