Long Range Thread 24.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
dkodgis wrote:Looks like Fri/Sat falling into place a bit more?
My opinion is no. Without the SE ridge being beaten down we just have a very poor antecedent air mass. That is a function of a poor Atlantic among other things. We won't get the storm to slow down for aforementioned reasons to allow colder air to work in and outside of I81 Binghamton area I don't see this having a chance for any meaningful snow. Maybe some c-1" further west in NEPA, EPA.
Our snow valve turned off end of January It happens...
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
3-5" Scranton-Binghamton makes sense to me and C-1" for most of the area.
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
heehaw453 wrote:Also, after Saturday will most likely be the end of road for winter weather for most folks on this board. This 500mb has good model support across guidance. Hostile EPO/NAM combo to set in which will keep cold air bottled up in CA and allow the ugly SE ridge to flex its muscles. Any change to that pattern would be after 3rd week of March. So let's hope for an overperformer on Saturday.
Would be nice if the saturday system over performs but with the way this winter has gone I don't have much hope
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.
It's not going to be all rain. Models have trended east with the low and colder. The further N and W you are the better. My high on Saturday went from 40 to 36. Euro gives a significant snow event. Although I think it's too aggressive with the cold air it is a possibility. This needs to be watched.
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.
Disagree somewhat on that Doc.
This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.
Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.
Disagree somewhat on that Doc.
This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.
Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.
As always, will be pleasantly surprised like yesterday, if this works out for us.Being pessimistic because of this "D" winter so far.I expect nothing but will be happy with something,LOL.
Anyway, I need a bit more to hit 30 inches here, looks better than 29,LOL.
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
docstox12 wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:docstox12 wrote:NWS pretty much all rain here.Looks like a Catskill-New England special.Very frequent this time of year.
Disagree somewhat on that Doc.
This is a northern New England Upstate NY special right now. Most of New England especially the population centers rains for this.
Euro has Orange County in 6-8 inches for Saturday. I'm doubting that but there is reason for hope.
As always, will be pleasantly surprised like yesterday, if this works out for us.Being pessimistic because of this "D" winter so far.I expect nothing but will be happy with something,LOL.
Anyway, I need a bit more to hit 30 inches here, looks better than 29,LOL.
You will make it to 30! LoL.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
WINTER STILL HAS SOME "BITE" LEFT..
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) March 15, 2022
The only reason I am not waving the winter surrender flag is due to the modeled warming of the northern pole region. This would classify as a "Polar Vortex" split causing all sorts of mischief by end of the month in #Europe and #NorthAmerica! pic.twitter.com/JA5Sskm1iG
One last hurrah!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Forecast models have what is known as a “split” of the polar vortex late month and that has me concerned for more cold late March. This is likely to interrupt any spring patterns across Eastern North America. Sorry spring lovers. Enjoy this warmup. pic.twitter.com/nBAthsTHNU
— StormTrackerSacher (@TrackerSacher) March 15, 2022
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
Also, La Niña three-peats (triple dips?) are very rare—only two exist in our more reliable historical record going back to 1950 and both occurred after major El Niño events, which our current event did not. The time evolution of the Niño-3.4 index for the two La Niña three-peats is featured in the darker blue lines in the image below. It is also interesting that out of the eight double-dip La Niñas in our historical record, three ended up evolving into an El Niño for the third winter (red lines) and the remaining three ended up on the cooler side, close to La Niña thresholds, but were ultimately classified as ENSO-neutral winters.
Reference: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-three-bean-salad
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck." Yesterday's ECMWF forecast resembled a reflective event (aka stretched #polarvortex) & today's GFS confirmed it with all the trimmings. Details in the blog: https://t.co/Gg8N2KHLUk pic.twitter.com/SXPOXsZaE2
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) March 16, 2022
Back to winter ??? Possibly as the PV breaks down
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
amugs wrote:WXBell Summer Forecast - Where do I sign.
The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:
If this means we are not going to have a super hot summer..I will sign as well!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
Snow88 wrote:Thread is too quiet lol
-EPO and west based -NAO setting up for a transient period of time late month into April. The tropical wave that has hindered our pattern the last couple of weeks is projected to dissipate as well. I could see how a late season snowstorm comes together for the area...
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Re: Long Range Thread 24.0
Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever diesFrank_Wx wrote:Snow88 wrote:Thread is too quiet lol
-EPO and west based -NAO setting up for a transient period of time late month into April. The tropical wave that has hindered our pattern the last couple of weeks is projected to dissipate as well. I could see how a late season snowstorm comes together for the area...
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